Oscar predictions: Will one movie dominate the acting awards like last year?

Jacob Sarkisian
·4 min read
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Before the 2023 Academy Awards, only “A Streetcar Named Desire” and “Network” had won three Oscars for acting. The former won its hat trick in 1952 with Vivien Leigh taking home Best Actress, Karl Malden claiming Best Supporting Actor, and Kim Hunter winning Best Supporting Actress. Then, in 1976, “Network” won Best Actor for Peter Finch (posthumously), Best Actress for Faye Dunaway, and Best Supporting Actress for Beatrice Straight. Those two movies stood alone as the only pictures to win three acting Oscars until 2023 when “Everything Everywhere All at Once” produced wins for Michelle Yeoh (Best Actress), Jamie Lee Curtis (Best Supporting Actress), and Ke Huy Quan (Best Supporting Actor). These three films now have the joint-highest number of acting wins in Oscars history as no film has ever managed to reign victorious in all four acting categories.

Plenty of movies have had four nominations for acting, including “American Hustle” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” And five films have landed five acting bids in total: “Network,” “Mrs. Miniver” in 1943, “From Here to Eternity” in 1954, “Peyton Place” in 1958, “Bonnie and Clyde” in 1968, and “The Godfather: Part 2” in 1975. But how about this year? Could any movie score three, four, or even five Oscar nominations just for acting? Well, let’s go through it properly.

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As of this writing, we predict that four different movies will land one acting nomination. Here’s the rundown: “Anatomy of a Fall” for Sandra Hüller (Best Actress), “American Fiction” for Jeffrey Wright (Best Actor), “The Color Purple” for Danielle Brooks (Best Supporting Actress), and “Nyad” for Jodie Foster (Best Supporting Actress). “Nyad” could potentially land two bids if Annette Bening gets in for Actress while “The Color Purple” could also sneak a nomination for Taraji P. Henson for Supporting Actress alongside Brooks. We don’t currently predict either of those things will happen, however.

We are predicting that five movies will reap two nominations for their acting. We think “Poor Things” will claim bids for Best Actress for Emma Stone and Best Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo. “May December” is expected to land two supporting bids for Julianne Moore and Charles Melton. Contrastingly, “Maestro” will secure nominations for leads Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan. We are expecting “The Holdovers” to lock down a Best Supporting Actress bid for Da’Vine Joy Randolph and a Best Actor nomination for Paul Giamatti. And we believe that “Barbie” will earn bids for Ryan Gosling in Best Supporting Actor and Margot Robbie in Best Actress. However, several of these movies could make it to three nominations. Willem Dafoe could join co-star Ruffalo in Supporting Actor for “Poor Things;” Natalie Portman could snag a Best Actress bid for “May December;” and America Ferrera could creep into the Supporting Actress lineup for “Barbie.”

Currently, however, we are only predicting two movies will be nominated for three acting Academy Awards: “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” We think “Oppenheimer” will achieve that feat with bids for Best Actor for Cillian Murphy, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr, and Best Supporting Actress for Emily Blunt. And we think “Killers of the Flower Moon” will pick up nominations for Best Actor for Leonardo DiCaprio, Best Supporting Actor for Robert De Niro, and Best Supporting Actress for Lily Gladstone.

We don’t envision a scenario in which any film will be nominated for four or more Oscars for acting.

But how about victories? Will any film land three wins like “Everything Everywhere All at Once?” Well, that’s a possibility possibility. At this time of writing, we think that Downey Jr. and Murphy will win Supporting Actor and Actor, respectively, while Blunt has a good chance at winning Supporting Actress in what is a very open category. We are predicting that Randolph will win that category at the moment, but anything could happen there. Best Actress, however, feels more certain: we’re expecting a Stone victory. So, at the moment, we think “The Holdovers” and “Poor Things” will each pick up one acting win each while “Oppenheimer” will take home two. Let’s see how this pans out as awards season continues to get underway.

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