Final Oscars Predictions: Live Action Short – The Year of Ireland Could Continue With ‘An Irish Goodbye’ Winning

Clayton Davis
·3 min read
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 2, 2023

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Live Action Short

THE RED SUITCASE, Nawelle Ewad, 2022. © Cynefilms / Courtesy Everett Collection
THE RED SUITCASE, Nawelle Ewad, 2022. © Cynefilms / Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

“An Irish Goodbye” is the only English-language movie in the lineup, with the BAFTA prize under its belt. However, “The Red Suitcase” seems to be the “pure” choice for many voters that will give it a run for its money.

Alfonso Cuarón could also tie the record with Walt Disney for winning the most Oscars in four categories if he wins for “Le Pupille.”

Will Win: “An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures) – Tom Berkeley, Ross White
Could Win: “The Red Suitcase” (Cynefilms) – Cyrus Neshvad
Should Win: “The Red Suitcase”
Should have been here: “Moshari” (Left Handed Films) — Nuhash Humayun

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Director(s), Producer(s)

Distributor(s)

1

“An Irish Goodbye”

Tom Berkeley and Ross White

Floodlight Pictures

In rural Northern Ireland, a pair of estranged brothers reunite following their mother’s untimely death.

2

“The Red Suitcase”

Cyrus Neshvad

Cynefilms

Luxembourg Airport. Late in the evening. A veiled 16-year-old Iranian girl is frightened to take her red suitcase on the automatic carpet. She keeps pushing back the moment to go through the arrival gate and seems more and more terrified.

3

“Le Pupille”

Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón

Disney+

Follow the rebellious girls of a Catholic boarding school before Christmas, a time of war and scarcity.

4

“Night Ride”

Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen

Cylinder Production

A cold night in December. Ebba waits for the tram to go home after a party, but the ride takes an unexpected turn.

5

“Ivalu”

Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan

M&M Productions

Ivalu is gone. Her little sister is desperate to find her. Her father does not care. The vast Greenlandic nature holds secrets. The search for Ivalu is on.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: "The Long Goodbye" (WePresent) - Aniel Karia, Riz Ahmed

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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