Oscar predictions: What do last decade of Best Director winners tell us about this year?

The Academy Award for Best Director often goes to the top technical achievement of the year, with such recent winners as Alfonso Cuarón (“Gravity”) and Alejandro González Ińárritu (“The Revenant”). However, we’ve had quieter, more introspective winners, too, such as Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”) and Cuarón again (“Roma”).

What will it be this year? Will the award go to a huge technical achievement like Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”) or someone with a quieter movie like Celine Song (“Past Lives”)?

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In order to predict the future winner, let’s look back at the past 10 winners of this category to see if we can gain any insight into the academy’s tastes in this category.

The first thing to note is the internationalism of the 10 winners. The only American winners were Damien Chazelle with “La La Land” and Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert with “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Mexican filmmakers have won five time — Cuarón in 2014 for “Gravity” and 2019 for “Roma,” Ińárritu in 2015 for “Birdman” and 2016 for “The Revenant,” and Guillermo del Toro in 2018 for “The Shape of Water.” Jane Campion is a New Zealander (for “The Power of the Dog”), Zhao is Chinese (for “Nomadland”), and Bong Joon-ho is South Korean (for “Parasite”). The academy has changed dramatically within the past decade with more modern instincts and a more diverse membership.

There is also great diversity in terms of genre. Drama used to be the order of the day in this category but, now, there is a real mix. Only three out of the last 10 winners have been conventional dramas — “The Power of the Dog,” “Nomadland,” and “Roma.”

Other winners were movies that blur the lines between genres or blend together multiple genres. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is at once a sci-fi epic, an action movie, a comedy, and a moving family drama. “Parasite” is a drama, a comedy, a thriller, and a biting social satire. And “The Shape of Water” is a romance, a fantasy film, and a period thriller. The academy is now more open to braver filmmaking and more colorful films. Strong flavors are very much in vogue right now.

Then there is the technical achievement factor. Six of the last 10 winners can be classified as such: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Roma,” “La La Land,” “The Revenant,” “Birdman,” and “Gravity.” This is not to say that the other four films aren’t admirable achievements in their own right (of course they are), but these six stand out in that so much of their creation is rooted in their technical work. Consider the cinematography of “Birdman” and “Gravity,” the sheer scope of “The Revenant,” the editing of “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

The best-directed movie won Best Picture half of the time: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Nomadland,” “Parasite,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Birdman.” The losers were: “The Power of the Dog” (lost to “CODA”), “Roma” (lost to “Green Book”), “La La Land” (lost to “Moonlight”), “The Revenant” (lost to “Spotlight”), and “Gravity” (lost to “12 Years a Slave”). That once rock-solid union between Best Picture and Best Director has crumbled due to the use of the preferential ballot for the former.

What is more telling, however, is the fact that nine out of 10 winners directed movies that were entirely fictional. The only winner for a film based on a true story was Ińárritu, who won for “The Revenant.” That shows a clear preference — the academy likes fictional movies in this category. But that is very well and good for the past. What about the future? What does it mean for this year’s contenders? Well, let’s take a look.

We are currently predicting that the following directors will be nominated this year: Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), Martin Scorsese(“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”), Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”), and
Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”).

Scorsese is directing a historical drama epic, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which tells the true story of the murders of the Osage tribe in the South of the USA in the 1920s. The genre falls in line with what the academy likes — a drama — but the fact that it is a true story suggests that Scorsese may not be as strong a contender as we currently think. He is in first place in our odds chart and so is “Killers of the Flower Moon” in the Best Picture chart. However, that shaky split between Best Picture and Best Director remains — it’s no guarantee that “Killers of the Flower Moon” will win both Best Picture and Best Director. This would be Scorsese’s 10th nomination for Best Director, which would move him one ahead of Steven Spielberg and two behind the record holder William Wyler (12). He was nominated in 1981 for “Raging Bull,” 1989 for “The Last Temptation of Christ,” 1991 for “Goodfellas,” 2003 for “Gangs of New York,” 2005 for “The Aviator,” 2007 for “The Departed,” 2012 for “Hugo,” 2014 for “The Wolf of Wall Street,” and 2020 for “The Irishman.” He won in 2007 for “The Departed.”

Nolan has the same problem that Scorsese does — “Oppenheimer” is a film based on a true story. Specifically, it tells the tale of how J. Robert Oppenheimer created the atomic bomb. The academy prefer fiction in this category, although this wold go down as technical achievement and it is a genre (drama) they like. Nolan was previously nominated for five Oscars, including one Best Director bid. That came in 2018 for “Dunkirk,” which was also a technical achievement telling a true story. He was also nominated for Best Original Screenplay twice (in 2002 for “Memento” with brother Jonathan Nolan and in 2011 for “Inception”) and Best Picture twice (for “Inception” and “Dunkirk”). “Oppenheimer” is currently in first place in our Best Picture odds chart, too, so that helps.

Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” is a fictional story (tick) following a young woman who is brought back to life. She then subsequently explores the world, herself, and people with vigor and passion. The movie could go down as a technical winner, although the fact that it’s a comedy does hinder it. The movie is expected to pick up a Best Picture nomination, however, so that helps. Lanthimos was previously nominated in this category in 2019 for “The Favourite,” a similarly heightened period piece. That proved to be to the academy’s tastes so why not this one? Lanthimos was also nominated for Best Picture for “The Favourite” as well as Best Original Screenplay for “The Lobster” in 2017 (shared with Efthimis Filippou).

Gerwig’s “Barbie” follows Margot Robbie‘s titular Barbie leaving Barbie Land and heading into the real world to solve her existential crisis. This film is highly original and fictional and would fit right in alongside the other strong flavor winners in this category such as “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “Parasite,” “The Shape of Water,” and “La La Land.” The academy like BOLD movies in this category — and no movie is more bold (or pink) than Gerwig’s “Barbie.” This film would go down as a technical achievement, too, thanks to its musical numbers, extensive sets, and practical effects, while we also predict it to be nominated for Best Picture.

The only factor that might go against “Barbie” is the fact that it is a movie all about tone. It trends that fine line between humor and sentiment, satire and emotion. Other movies with a similar command of tone have often been overlooked in the Best Director category, such as Taika Waititi’s “Jojo Rabbit,” Martin McDonagh‘s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” and Adam McKay‘s “Don’t Look Up.” However, Waititi won Best Adapted Screenplay in 2020 and McDonagh (2018) and McKay (2021) were nominated for Best Original Screenplay. These sort of films tend to get rewarded more for writing than directing, so Gerwig may get confined to Best Adapted Screenplay as she did for “Little Women.”

Glazer directs “The Zone of Interest,” a WWII movie about the Nazi commandant at Auschwitz who tries to build a dream life for his wife and family next to the concentration camp. Again, this is a true story, while it doesn’t seem like this would go down as a technical achievement. “The Zone of Interest” is predicted to reap a Best Picture bid but it does very much feel on the bubble. Glazer has also never been nominated for an Oscar. Out of our predicted five contenders, this one, for me, feels the most at risk of dropping out.

There are also some names just outside of the top five, however, that are worth considering, such as Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”), and Song (“Past Lives”). Song is an interesting one. Her movie tells the tender story of two childhood friends who meet years later and find that their connection is still as strong as ever. This wouldn’t go down as a technical achievement win — it’s a story more concerned with emotion and feeling. It is a fictional story, however, and “Past Lives” is predicted to reap a Best Picture nomination, so that gives Song a boost. Song has never been nominated for an Oscar before.

Cooper has reaped three Best Actor bids: “Silver Linings Playbook” in 2013, “American Sniper” in 2015, and “A Star is Born” in 2019. He’s also picked up a Best Supporting Actor nomination (for “American Hustle” in 2014) and a Best Adapted Screenplay bid (for “A Star is Born”). Surprisingly, the category he has received the most nominations in is Best Picture — with four so far. His first came in 2015 for “American Sniper” and he was nominated in 2019 for “A Star is Born,” which he also wrote and directed. He contended in 2020 for “Joker” and in 2022 for “Nightmare Alley.” “Joker” is the only one of the four Best Picture bids in which he did not appear. His movie, “Maestro,” is a period drama — a biopic — telling a true story. It’s expected to be nominated for Best Picture but the true story aspect hinders it. It’s also rare for actors-turned-directors to win this category. It has happened, of course, such as Robert Redford (“Ordinary People”) and Kevin Costner (“Dances With Wolves”) amongst several others but these artists also get snubbed a lot, too. Ben Affleck was snubbed despite his movie, “Argo,” winning Best Picture in 2013 while Cooper himself felt the harsh cold of a Best Director omission in 2019 when he was snubbed for “A Star is Born.” It’s touch and go for Cooper, although it does also feel like a technical achievement, which helps.

Payne, meanwhile, has earned three Best Director nominations: for “Sideways” in 2005, “The Descendants” in 2012, and “Nebraska” in 2014. He was also nominated for Best Original Screenplay in 2000 for “Election” (shared with Jim Taylor); Best Adapted Screenplay in 2005 (for “Sideways,” shared with Taylor) and 2012 (for “The Descendants,” shared with Nat Faxon and Jim Rash); and Best Picture in 2012 for “The Descendants” (shared with Taylor and Jim Burke). He won for writing “Sideways” and “The Descendants.” His movie is a fictional drama set in the 1970s — two ticks — although it isn’t a technical achievement. This one feels like it may be recognized more for its writing and acting rather than directing. He’s on the precipice.

However, two awards groups have announced their nominations already. The Critics Choice Awards nominated Nolan, Scorsese, Lanthimos, Gerwig, Cooper, and Payne. The Golden Globes then filled their Best Director lineup with Nolan, Scorsese, Lanthimos, Gerwig, Cooper, and Song. Glazer didn’t feature in either lineup, so his Oscar chances have taken a hit. Both awards groups nominated the same five names out of six: Nolan, Scorsese, Lanthimos, Gerwig, and Cooper. Should those be the new predicted five Oscar nominees?

Nolan, Scorsese, and Lanthimos feel like locks with Gerwig almost on the same level. Cooper has surged forward thanks to these nominations and has given himself a great chance while Payne and Song are the names challenging him. Glazer could drop out of this race completely. It’s going to be a helluva of an Oscars season.

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