Oscar predictions: Fantasia Barrino (‘The Color Purple’) is the early favorite for historic Best Actress victory

Daniel Montgomery
·3 min read
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All we’ve seen of the upcoming musical adaptation of “The Color Purple” is the trailer, but that was enough to put Fantasia Barrino in the driver’s seat for Best Actress in our early Oscar predictions. Scroll down for our graph that illustrates the current state of the race.

“The Color Purple” is based on he novel by Alice Walker, but it has already gone through multiple iterations. It was adapted into a 1985 film by Steven Spielberg, which was nominated for 11 Oscars but notoriously lost all of them. Among those 11, Whoopi Goldberg earned a Best Actress bid for playing Celie, a Black woman living in the American South in the early 20th century.

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SEE‘The Color Purple’ trailer: Fantasia Barrino leads all-star cast in movie musical first look [Watch]

Then came the Broadway musical. The initial 2005 staging earned Tony nominations for Best Musical, Best Book of a Musical, and Best Original Score for the songs by Brenda Russell, Allee Willis, and Stephen Bray. But it only won one of its nominations: Best Actress in a Musical for LaChanze as Celie. The show was mounted again in 2015 and this time it won Best Revival of a Musical in addition to Best Actress again, this time for Cynthia Erivo‘s star-making performance as Celie.

So the role of Celie has a heck of a track record on the awards scene, producing an Oscar nom and two Tonys. Can Barrino extend that streak? She’s the current favorite to win the Oscar according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. Among those betting on her victory are nine Expert journalists, six Gold Derby staff Editors, 10 of our Top 24 Users, and 13 of our All-Star Top 24.

If she wins, she would be just the second Black woman ever to claim Best Actress, following Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball.” She’d also be the second woman from “American Idol” season three to win an Oscar, following Jennifer Hudson for “Dreamgirls.” Coincidentally, Hudson co-starred in the Broadway revival of “The Color Purple,” which won her, Erivo, and Danielle Brooks the Grammy for Best Musical Theater Album. When it comes to awards, “The Color Purple” is the gift that keeps on giving.

oscars best actress graph
oscars best actress graph

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