Oscar predictions: Emma Stone (‘Poor Things’) still leads Best Actress odds, but Experts say it’s a 6-way race
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When “Poor Things” started premiering at festivals earlier this fall, Emma Stone raced to the top of our Best Actress racetrack odds for her performance as a young woman who embarks on a journey of self-discovery after being resurrected by a mad scientist (Willem Dafoe). And she hasn’t looked back. She maintains the lead according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing. But the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed think this race is far from settled. In fact, the 24 who have placed their bets thus far are divided six different ways.
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Stone is currently backed by 11 Experts, more than any other contender in the race, but that’s fewer than half of all Experts making predictions. Is she really vulnerable after the stellar reviews she and the film received? Well, she did just win seven years ago for “La La Land,” so some academy members may be reluctant to honor her again so soon, though voters haven’t hesitated to give multiple acting Oscars in an even shorter timeframe than that. Consider that in the last quarter-century Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry” and “Million Dollar Baby”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds” and “Django Unchained”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood” and “Lincoln”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight” and “Green Book”) and Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards” and “Nomadland”) all won two Oscars in five years or less.
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But Stone would have fierce competition even if she hadn’t won before. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) surprised many when it was announced that she’s being campaigned as a lead actress, but four Experts anticipate her victory for playing a member of the Osage Nation as they are subject to terrible crimes in the 1920s. Three Experts back Sandra Huller (“Anatomy of a Fall”) for her emotional role as a woman accused of murdering her husband. And two Experts apiece are betting on Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) as the wife of a music genius, Margot Robbie (“Barbie”) as a doll who discovers womanhood and Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”) in a role that has already won two Best Actress Tonys on stage.
And there’s still plenty of time for the race to undergo further fluctuations. Where do you currently stand on this close contest? Make or update your predictions here in our predictions center.
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