Final Oscar Predictions: Documentary Short – Will the Academy Go for Malala or ‘Elephants?’

Clayton Davis
·4 min read
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers
The Elephant Whisperers

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

Predicting the shorts is always very unpredictable, but this year is in overdrive. Netflix has two movies in the running — “The Elephant Whisperers” and “The Martha Mitchell Effect” — with the former tracking very well with voters.

Malala was on the circuit in a big way for “Stranger at the Gate” which could be the one that pushes it forward. The heartwarming feelings from “How Do You Measure a Year” also struck a few chords.

Flipping a coin in favor of Netflix’s love for animals.

Will Win: “The Elephant Whisperers” (Netflix) – Kartiki Gonsalves, Guneet Monga)
Could Win: “Stranger at the Gate” (The New Yorker) — Joshua Seftel, Conall Jones
Should Win: “How Do You Measure a Year?” (Jay Rosenblatt Films) – Jay Rosenblatt
Should have been here: “38 at the Garden” (HBO Max) – Frank Chi

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Director(s) & Producer(s)

Distributor(s)

1

“The Elephant Whisperers”

Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga

Netflix

The Elephant Whisperers’ follows an indigenous couple as they fall in love with Raghu, an orphaned elephant given into their care, and tirelessly work to ensure his survival. The film highlights the beauty of the wild spaces in South India and the people and animals who share this space

2

“Stranger at the Gate”

Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

The New Yorker

A U.S. Marine plots a terrorist attack on a small-town American mosque. His plan takes an unexpected turn when he comes face-to-face with the people he sets out to kill.

3

“How Do You Measure a Year?

Jay Rosenblatt

Jay Rosenblatt Films

From the time she was two-years-old and until she turned 18, they had a ritual: Dad asked (and filmed), and Ella answered. What do you dream about? What scares you? What do you think about our relationship? This is a little story about growing up and the love between father and daughter.

4

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

Netflix

The Cabinet wife who spoke out during Watergate and the Nixon administration’s campaign to gaslight her into silence.

5

“Haulout”

Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev

Albireo Films

Follows a man waiting in his hut in the desolate expanse of the Russian Arctic. He is holding out in order to observe a natural event that occurs here, every year, but ocean warming is taking its toll.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: "The Queen of Basketball" (The New York Times) - Ben Proudfoot

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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