Oscar predictions update: Christopher Nolan passes Martin Scorsese in Experts’ predix for Best Director

As “Barbenheimer” mania continues, there has been a major shift in the Oscar predictions for Best Director. According to the predictions of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”) now has an ever-so-slight edge against Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon“) for Best Director.

As of this writing 10 of those elite journos are betting on Nolan to prevail for his work on the biographical drama about the father of the atomic bomb. Compare that to nine who say Scorsese is out front. Thus far they are the only two directors with Experts predicting them to win the Oscar.

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Of course, it’s early yet. We might see the pendulum swing back to Scorsese when “Killers of the Flower Moon” releases in October. Or another director could swoop in and usurp the front-runner position from both of them. But right now Nolan is in a particularly strong position.

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He hasn’t won an Oscar yet, which gives him the same king of overdue narrative that Scorsese had when he finally won Best Director for “The Departed” (2006) — though Scorsese waited longer for his first trophy than Nolan has had to. And “Oppenheimer” has that rare trifecta of important subject matter (the moral quandaries surrounding the atomic bomb during World War II), critical adoration (88 on MetaCritic, 94% freshness on Rotten Tomatoes), and box office success ($400 million globally after 10 days of release).

“Oppenheimer” is a relatively early release, though, which is often a disadvantage since the Oscars typically prefer the fall films that are freshest in mind, but that didn’t hurt “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which just swept the Oscars despite opening way back in March of 2022.

We’ll have more Experts weighing in on the Oscar race as the season progresses, so no filmmaker’s position is ever totally fixed, especially when the race is this close this early. Stay tuned.

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