Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Ke Huy Quan Is a Story Worth Honoring This Season

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 2, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, Barry Keoghan, 2022. © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, Barry Keoghan, 2022. © Searchlight Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The lovefest for comeback star Ke Huy Quan continues after adding two supporting trophies to his mantle this week from the Gothams and the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle. Looking destined to be the critical darling of the season, he’ll be hard to root against as more awards are handed out, and he delivers moving speeches. Nine of the last 10 NYFCC winners for supporting actor received Oscar noms, with only Chadwick Boseman missing out for “Da 5 Bloods” (2020). However, he was still recognized posthumously by the Academy the same year for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Four of the nine NYFCC winners – Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”) and Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) – took home the Oscar.

With “The Banshees of Inisherin” picking up steam for best picture and best actor for Colin Farrell, his co-stars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan could come along for the ride. Let’s see how far the Martin McDonagh dramedy can go on the awards circuit.

Brian Tyree Henry has been making the rounds at various Q&As and industry events. The 40-year-old Emmy nominee should already have an Oscar nomination by now (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), and he could be a packaged deal with his Oscar-winning co-star Jennifer Lawrence.

There are lots more nominations and precursors to be announced. We’ll see what shakes out next.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

Find the SAG Awards predictions for film and Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories on their respective pages.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

WOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection
WOMEN TALKING, from left: Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, 2022. ph: Michael Gibson /© Orion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Film

Distributor

1

Ke Huy Quan

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

2

Brendan Gleeson

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

3

Barry Keoghan

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

4

Eddie Redmayne

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients.

5

Brian Tyree Henry

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.

Next in Line

6

Judd Hirsch

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

7

Ben Foster

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

A runaway slave forges through the swamps of Louisiana on a tortuous journey to escape plantation owners that nearly killed him.

8

Ben Whishaw

“Women Talking”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.

9

Mark Rylance

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.

10

Jeremy Strong

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.

Other Top-Tier Contenders

11

Tom Hanks

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

12

Brad Pitt

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

13

Paul Dano

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

14

Woody Harrelson

“Triangle of Sadness”

Neon

15

Toby Jones

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

16

Micheal Ward

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

17

Miles Teller

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

18

Andre Braugher

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

19

Glen Powell

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

20

Colin Farrell

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Also In Contention

21

David Lynch

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

22

Anthony Hopkins

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

23

Don Cheadle

“White Noise”

Netflix

24

Paul Dano

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

25

Harry Styles

“My Policeman”

Amazon Studios

26

Raúl Castillo

“The Inspection”

A24

27

Bokeem Woodbine

“The Inspection”

A24

28

Viggo Mortensen

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

29

Ben Aldridge

“Spoiler Alert”

Focus Features

30

Edward Norton

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”

Netflix

All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)

Jim Carter

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Brendan Coyle

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Hugh Dancy

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Felix Maritaud

“You Won’t Be Alone”

Focus Features

Carloto Cotta

“You Won’t Be Alone”

Focus Features

Kevin Doyle

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Michael Fox

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Harry Hadden-Paton

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Robert James-Collier

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Allen Leech

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Dominic West

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Jonathan Zaccaï

“Downton Abbey: A New Era”

Focus Features

Aaron Hilmer

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Aaron Moten

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

Adrien Brody

“Blonde”

Netflix

Adrien Brody

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Albrecht Schuch

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Aldis Hodge

“Black Adam”

Warner Bros

Alessandro Nivola

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Alex Livinalli

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Alex Sharp

“Living”

Sony Pictures Classics

Allan Corduner

“Tár”

Focus Features

Andre Braugher

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

André Holland

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Andrés Almeida

“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”

Netflix

Andrew Scott

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Amazon Studios

Andy Serkis

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Anthony Edwards

“Hustle”

Netflix

Anthony Hopkins

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

Ashton Sanders

“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Asivak Koostachin

“Montana Story”

Bleecker Street

Austin Crute

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Focus Features

Barry Keoghan

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Barry Keoghan

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Ben Aldridge

“Spoiler Alert”

Focus Features

Ben Foster

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

Ben Foster

“Hustle”

Netflix

Ben Whishaw

“Women Talking”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Benedict Wong

“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”

Marvel Studios

Bill Irwin

“Spoiler Alert”

Focus Features

Bill Murray

“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”

Apple Original Films

Bobby Cannavale

“Blonde”

Netflix

Bokeem Woodbine

“The Inspection”

A24

Brad Pitt

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

Brandon Perea

“Nope”

Universal Pictures

Brendan Gleeson

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Brett Gelman

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Brian D’Arcy James

“The Cathedral”

Hulu

Brian Tyree Henry

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

Britain Dalton

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

Chris Pine

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros.

Chris Rock

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Claes Bang

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Clarke Peters

“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Cliff Curtis

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

Colin Farrell

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Colin Farrell

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Colin Firth

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Conphidance

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Focus Features

Dave Bautista

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

David Dawson

“My Policeman”

Amazon Studios

David Denham

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

David Oyelowo

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

David Strathairn

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

David Wenham

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Derek Jacobi

“Allelujah”

No U.S. Distribution

Devere Rogers

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Focus Features

Devid Striesow

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Don Cheadle

“White Noise”

Netflix

Don Cheadle

“White Noise”

Netflix

Dustin Hoffman

“As They Made Us”

Quiver

Dylan O’Brien

“The Outfit”

Focus Features

Eddie Redmayne

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Edin Hasanovic

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Edward Norton

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

Eric Ladin

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Ernie Hudson

“Prisoner’s Daughter”

No U.S. Distribution

Ethan Hawke*

“Raymond & Ray”

Apple Original Films

Ethan Suplee

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Evan Williams

“Blonde”

Netflix

Ewan McGregor*

“Raymond & Ray”

Apple Original Films

Frankie Faison

“Till”

Orion/United Artists Releasing

Garret Dillahunt

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Gilbert Owuor

“Montana Story”

Bleecker Street

Glen Powell

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

Glen Powell

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

Grant Harvey

“Emancipation”

Apple Original Films

Gustav de Waele

“Close”

A24

Gustav Lindh

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Guy Branum

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Harris Dickinson

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Harris Dickinson

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Harry Lloyd

“The Lost King”

Warner Bros.

Harry Melling

“The Pale Blue Eye”

Netflix

Harry Styles

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros

Igor Van Dessel

“Close”

A24

Iker Solano

“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”

Netflix

Jalyn Hall

“Till”

Orion/United Artists Releasing

James Teeradon Supapunpinyo

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Jared Harris

“The Sea Beast”

Netflix

Jason Kravits

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Jaylin Webb

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

Lambert Wilson

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

Lucas Bravo

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

Jason Isaacs

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

Jeffrey Donovan

“Breaking”

Bleecker Street

Jeffrey Wright

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Jeremy Strong

“Armageddon Time”

Focus Features

Jim Rash

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Joe Alwyn

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Amazon Studios

Joe Alwyn

“Stars at Noon”

A24

Joe Jonas

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

Joel Edgerton

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

John Boyega

“The Woman King”

Sony Pictures

John David Washington

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

John Leguizamo

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

John Patton Ford

“Emily the Criminal”

Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment

John Turturro

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

John Way

“A Love Song”

Bleecker Street

Johnny Dlynn

“The Outfit”

Focus Features

Jon Hamm

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

Jonathan Pryce

“All the Old Knives”

Amazon Studios

Jonathan Tucker

“Palm Trees and Power Lines”

Momentum Pictures

Juancho Hernangómez

“Hustle”

Netflix

Julian Glover

“Tár”

Focus Features

Justin H. Min

“After Yang”

A24

Ke Huy Quan

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

Kelvin Harrison Jr.

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Kenny Smith

“Hustle”

Netflix

Kevin Nash

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Laurence Fishburne

“All the Old Knives”

Amazon Studios

Leslie Odom Jr.

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

Luke David Blumm

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Luke Forbes

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Luke Macfarlane

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Malcolm McDowell

“Moving On”

No U.S. Distribution

Malik Yoba

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Manuel Garcia-Rulfo

“A Man Called Otto”

Sony Pictures

Mark Rylance

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Mark Strong

“Tár”

Focus Features

Martin Freeman

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Matthew Duckett

“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”

Netflix

Matthias Schoenaerts

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Matthias Schweighöfer

“The Swimmers”

Netflix

Michael Kenneth Williams

“Breaking”

Bleecker Street

Michael Shannon

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Michael Smiley

“The Silent Twins”

Focus Features

Michael Stuhlbarg

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Micheal Ward

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Mike Myers

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Miles Teller

“Top Gun: Maverick”

Paramount Pictures

Miss Lawrence

“Bros”

Universal Pictures

Morgan Spector

“Nanny”

Amazon Studios

Mortiz Klaus

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Nicholas Hoult

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

Nick Kroll

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros.

Nnamdi Asomugha

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Noah Emmerich

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Noah Jupe

“Dreamin’ Wild”

No U.S. Distribution

Norman Briski

“Argentina, 1985”

Amazon Studios

Oliver Jackson-Cohen

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Bleecker Street

Paul Dano

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Paul Dano

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

Paul Gleeson

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Pedro Pascal

“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”

Lionsgate

Peter Lanzani

“Argentina, 1985”

Amazon Studios

Peter Sarsgaard

“The Batman”

Warner Bros.

Rami Malek

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Raúl Castillo

“The Inspection”

A24

Reece Shearsmith

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Reed Birney

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

Richard Roxburgh

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Robbie Gene Bevins

“Dog”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Robert DeNiro

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Robert Duvall

“Hustle”

Netflix

Robert Duvall

“The Pale Blue Eye”

Netflix

Russell Crowe

“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”

Apple Original Films

Sahajak Boonthanakit

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Sam Nivola

“White Noise”

Netflix

Scoot McNairy

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Scott Speedman

“Crimes of the Future”

Neon

Sean Patrick Thomas

“Till”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Sebastian Chacon

“Emergency”

Amazon Studios

Seth Rogen

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

Shawn Mendes

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Simon Russell Beale

“The Outfit”

Focus Features

Sinqua Walls

“Nanny”

Amazon Studios

Stanley Tucci

“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Stephen Graham

“Matilda”

Netflix

Stephen Lang

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

Sterling Macer Jr.

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Steven Yeun

“Nope”

Universal Pictures

Taika Waititi

“Thor: Love and Thunder”

Marvel Studios

Taylor John Smith

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Tenoch Huerta Mejia

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Theo James

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Bleecker Street

Theo Rossi

“Emily the Criminal”

Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment

Thibault de Montlembert

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

Netflix

Thomas Sadoski

“Devotion”

Sony Pictures

Timothy Olyphant

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Tobey Maguire

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

Toby Jones

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Toby Jones

“The Wonder”

Netflix

Tom Bateman

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Tom Burke

“Living”

Sony Pictures Classics

Tom Burke

“The Wonder”

Netflix

Tom Hanks

“Elvis”

Warner Bros.

Tom Pelphrey

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

Treva Etienne

“The Silent Twins”

Focus Features

Trevante Rhodes

“Bruiser”

Onyx Collective

Tui Thiraphat Sajakul

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Viggo Mortensen

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Ving Rhames

“Wendell and Wild”

Netflix

Weir Sukollawat Kanaros

“Thirteen Lives”

Amazon Studios/MGM

Willem Dafoe

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Winslow Fegley

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Winston Duke

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Woody Harrelson

“Triangle of Sadness”

Neon

Xavier Samuel

“Blonde”

Netflix

Zen McGrath

“The Son”

Sony

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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