Final Oscars Predictions: Supporting Actor – It’s Been 39 Years Since Haing S. Ngor Became First Asian Winner, Will Ke Huy Quan Could the Second?

Clayton Davis
·4 min read
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Judd Hirsch -- The Fabelmans
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, Ke Huy Quan, 2022. ph: Allyson Riggs /© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY:

Barry Keoghan’s shocking BAFTA win aside for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” there’s no stopping the comeback story of the year, and perhaps in decades with Ke Huy Quan’s lovable Waymond Wang in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Quan’s line — “Even though you have broken my heart yet again, I wanted to say, in another life, I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you” — seals the deal.

The 51-year-old actor will become the second Asian to win this category, joining Haing S. Ngor of “The Killing Fields” (1984).

If there was a highly unexpected upset, it’d be safe to look to veteran Judd Hirsch, who would become the oldest acting winner in history at 87 years old after becoming the second oldest nominee behind Christopher Plummer (who was 88 when nominated for 2017’s “All the Money in the World”).

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Could Win: Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
Should have been here: Pedro Pascal, “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent” (Lionsgate)

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Film

Distributor

1

Ke Huy Quan

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

2

Judd Hirsch

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

3

Barry Keoghan

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

4

Brian Tyree Henry

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.

5

Brendan Gleeson

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, "CODA" (Apple Original Films)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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