Oscar predictions: Best Original Song will be a battle of the power ballads

Jacob Sarkisian
·5 min read
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Two of the most joyous cinematic moments of the year came when unlikely characters raised their voices in song. In “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” Jack Black brought the house down as Bowser with his plaintive plea to “Peaches.” And Ryan Gosling stole the show in “Barbie” with his declaration of independence, “I’m Just Ken.” Sure, both tones hit our collective funny bones but they also get to our hearts.

“Peaches” is a power ballad sung by Bowser at the piano in his lair. He confesses his love for Princess Peach (Anya Taylor-Joy) and reveals the motives behind his villainous activity — “everything I do, I do it for you” vibes. He is desperate to win the Princess’ hand in marriage because he loves her. Black’s voice is perfect for the song as his passion increases into a mad crescendo. It’s easily the best and most memorable part of the movie.

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Black co-wrote the song with Eric Osmond, John Spiker, and directors Michael Jelenic and Aaron Horvath. This would be the first Oscar nomination for all of these artists. There is good news, however. Animated movies tend to do well in this category. “Encanto” was nominated in 2022, “Toy Story 4” and “Frozen II” were nominated in 2020, “Coco” won in 2018, “Moana” and “Trolls” were nominated in 2017, and “The Lego Movie” was nominated in 2015. In fact, “The Lego Movie” was famously snubbed for Best Animated Feature but it still earned that Best Original Song nomination. So, even if “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” is overlooked for Animated Feature, its hilarious, catchy, and popular song (like “Everything is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”) could still get nominated.

“Barbie” is full of brilliant moments but it ramps it up a notch in the third act when Barbie’s plan to turn the Kens against one another succeeds. The song starts off with Gosling looking like a 1990s pop-star in a music video before it shifts into something into a musical number on a soundstage (the all-black outfits of the buff guys dancing is reminiscent of “Grease Lightning” from “Grease”. It’s a cine-literate satirization of masculinity but it also acts as a character-led moment in which Ken takes charge of his own life and realizes that, yes, he is enough (Kenough). It’s got a message of male empowerment beneath the comedy and choreographed dancing. And the fact that the movie’s moment wherein it talks directly about masculinity comes in the form of a song-and-dance number seems to be a commentary in and of itself. Genius, just like the rest of Greta Gerwig‘s film.

Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt wrote these tune and have a solid Oscars history in this category. They won Best Original Song in 2019 for the song “Shallow” from “A Star is Born,” sharing the award with Lady Gaga and Anthony Rossomando. That song was more emotional but it was as popular and talked about as “I’m Just Ken” is. Plus, comedy songs tend to do okay in this category. “Husavik,” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga,” was nominated in 2021. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” was nominated in 2019. And the aforementioned “Everything is Awesome,” from “The Lego Movie,” was nominated in 2015.

“I’m Just Ken” is also tied intrinsically to Gosling’s performance as Ken. We are predicting that Gosling will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor. He was nominated for Best Actor for “La La Land,” which also won Best Original Song for “City of Stars.” Gosling wasn’t on the ballot for that win (Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek, and Justin Paul won for that) but the song was still tied to his character and performance in that film. The same could happen with “Barbie.”

Plus, we predict that “Barbie” will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay while it is on the precipice of Best Director (Gerwig) and Best Actress (Margot Robbie) bids. The movie will also be up for several design awards, too, so if the film gets enough love, “I’m Just Ken” could get swept up and taken along for the ride. Now, that would be Kenough.

“Peaches” and “I’m Just Ken” both received bids for Original Song from the Golden Globes alongside “Addicted to Romance” from “She Came to Me,” “Road to Freedom,” “Dance the Night” from “Barbie,” and “What Was I Made For?” The two songs also earned nominations from the Critics Choice Awards, too, who nominated the exact same songs as the Golden Globes did apart from one. They swapped out “Addicted to Romance” for “This Wish.”

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