Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – ‘Babylon,‘ ’Elvis‘ and ’Triangle of Sadness’ Among the Screenplays Going for the Fifth Spot

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

TAR, Cate Blanchett, 2022. © Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection
TAR, Cate Blanchett, 2022. © Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The top four movies look locked and loaded for Oscar attention — Searchlight Pictures’ “The Banshees of Inisherin” by Martin McDonagh, Universal’s “The Fabelmans” by Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg, A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” by the Daniels and Focus Features’ “Tár” by Todd Field.

However, the last spot is between a handful of films. Charlotte Wells’ “Aftersun” and Ruben Östlund’s “Triangle of Sadness” seem to be the most likely to break into it but the love for “Elvis” could bring its four scribes — Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce and Jeremy Doner — in for the ride.

Familiarity could welcome Damien Chazelle back to the fold for “Babylon,” despite mixed reviews and a poor box office.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Shonka Dukureh
Shonka Dukureh as Big Mama Thornton in “Elvis”

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

Rank

Film

Writer(s)

Distributor

1

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Martin McDonagh

Searchlight Pictures

Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.

2

“Tár”

Todd Field

Focus Features

Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.

3

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

4

“The Fabelmans”

Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

5

“Triangle of Sadness”

Ruben Östlund

Neon

A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.

Next in Line

6

“Aftersun”

Charlotte Wells

A24

Sophie reflects on the shared joy and private melancholy of a holiday she took with her father twenty years earlier. Memories real and imagined fill the gaps between as she tries to reconcile the father she knew with the man she didn’t.

7

“Elvis”

Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Doner

Warner Bros.

Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.

8

“Babylon”

Damien Chazelle

Paramount Pictures

A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.

9

“Till”

Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly

Orion/United Artists Releasing

In 1955, after Emmett Till is murdered in a brutal lynching, his mother vows to expose the racism behind the attack while working to have those involved brought to justice.

10

“The Woman King”

Maria Bello, Dana Stevens

TriStar Pictures

A historical epic inspired by true events that took place in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.

Other Top-Tier Contenders

11

“The Menu”

Seth Reiss, Will Tracy

Searchlight Pictures

12

“Armageddon Time”

James Gray

Focus Features

13

“Nope”

Jordan Peele

Universal Pictures

13

“The Inspection”

Elegance Bratton

A24

14

“RRR”

  S.S. Rajamouli, Vijayendra Prasad

Variance Films

15

“Empire of Light”

Sam Mendes

Searchlight Pictures

17

“Close”

Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens

A24

18

“Decision to Leave”

Park Chan-wook, Seo-kyeong Jeong

Mubi

19

“Nanny”

Nikyatu Jusu

Amazon Studios

20

“Broker”

Hirokazu Kore-eda

Neon

Also In Contention

21

“Holy Spider”

Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami

Utopia

22

“Cha Cha Real Smooth”

Cooper Raiff

Apple Original Films

23

“Thirteen Lives”

William Nicholson, Don MacPherson

Amazon Studios/MGM

24

“Call Jane”

Hayley Schore, Roshan Sethi

Roadside Attractions

25

“Emancipation”

Bill Collage

Apple Original Films

All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)

“A Jazzman’s Blues”

Tyler Perry

Netflix

“A Love Song”

Max Walker-Silverman

Bleecker Street

“Aftersun”

Charlotte Wells

A24

“Palm Trees and Power Lines”

Jamie Dack, Audrey Findlay

Momentum Pictures

“You Won’t Be Alone”

Goran Stolevski

Focus Features

“Alice, Darling”

Alanna Francis

Lionsgate

“Am I OK?”

Lauren Pomerantz

HBO Max

“Amsterdam”

David O. Russell

20th Century Studios

“Argentina, 1985”

Mariano Llinás, Santiago Mitre

Amazon Studios

“Armageddon Time”

James Gray

Focus Features

“As They Made Us”

Mayim Bialik

Quiver

“Athena”

Elias Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj Ly

Netflix

“Babylon”

Damien Chazelle

Paramount Pictures

“God’s Creatures”

Shane Crowley, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly

A24

“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”

Nicolás Giacobone, Alejandro González Iñárritu

Netflix

“The Eternal Daughter”

Joanna Hogg

A24

“Bodies Bodies Bodies”

Sarah DeLappe, Kristen Roupenian

A24

“Broker”

Hirokazu Kore-eda

Neon

“Bros”

Billy Eichner, Nicholas Stoller

Universal Pictures

“Call Jane”

Hayley Schore, Roshan Sethi

Roadside Attractions

“Causeway”

Luke Goebel, Ottessa Moshfegh

A24/Apple Original Films

“Cha Cha Real Smooth”

Cooper Raiff

Apple Original Films

“Close”

Lukas Dhont, Angelo Tijssens

A24

“Corsage”

Marie Kreutzer

IFC Films

“Crimes of the Future”

David Cronenberg

Neon

“Decision to Leave”

Jeong Seo-kyeong, Park Chan-wook

Mubi

“Dog”

Reid Carolin, Brett Rodriguez

MGM/United Artists Releasing

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke, Shane Van Dyke

Warner Bros

“Elvis”

Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Doner

Warner Bros.

“Emancipation”

William D. Collage

Apple Original Films

“Emily the Criminal”

John Patton Ford

Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment

“Empire of Light”

Sam Mendes

Searchlight Pictures

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

A24

“God’s Country”

Julian Higgins, Shaye Ogbonna

IFC Films

“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”

Katy Brand

Searchlight Pictures

“Good Night Oppy”

Ryan White, Helen Kearns

Amazon Studios

“Holy Spider”

Ali Abbasi, Afshin Kamran Bahrami

Utopia

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”

Adamma Ebo

Focus Features

“The Outfit”

Graham Moore, Johnathan McClain

Focus Features

“Hustle”

Taylor Materne, Will Fetters

Netflix

“I Love My Dad”

James Morosini

Magnolia Pictures

“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”

Anthony McCLofty Sky Distributionn

Sony Pictures

“Master”

Mariama Diallo

Amazon Studios

“Montana Story”

Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Mike Spreter

Bleecker Street

“Nanny”

Nikyatu Jusu

Amazon Studios

“Nitram”

To be added

IFC Films

“Nope”

Jordan Peele

Universal Pictures

“One Fine Morning”

Mia Hansen-Løve

Sony Pictures Classics

“Piggy”

Carlota Pereda

Magnolia Pictures

“Raymond & Ray”

To be added

Apple Original Films

“Resurrection”

Andrew Semans

IFC Films

“RRR”

Vijayendra Prasad, S.S. Rajamouli

Variance Films

“Saint Omer”

Alice Diop, Amrita Davis, Zoé Galeron, Marie N’Diaye

Neon/Super

“See How They Run”

Mark Chappell

A24

“Strange World”

Qui Nguyen

Walt Disney Pictures

“Tár”

Todd Field

Focus Features

“The Fabelmans”

Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg

Universal Pictures

“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”

Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, Pete Jones

Apple Original Films

“The Inspection”

Elegance Bratton

A24

“The Lost King”

Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

Warner Bros.

“The Menu”

Seth Reiss, Will Tracy

Searchlight Pictures

“The Northman”

Robert Eggers, Sjón

Focus Features

“The Sea Beast”

Chris Williams, Neil Benjamin

Netflix

“The Swimmers”

Sally El Hosaini, Jack Thorne

Netflix

“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”

Tom Gormican, Kevin Etten

Lionsgate

“The Woman King”

Maria Bello, Dana Stevens

TriStar Pictures

“Thirteen Lives”

William Nicholson, Don MacPherson

Amazon Studios/MGM

“Ticket to Paradise”

Ol Prker, Daniel Pipski

Universal Pictures

“Till”

Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly

Orion/United Artists Releasing

“Tori and Lokita”

The Dardenne Brothers

Janus Films

“Triangle of Sadness”

Ruben Östlund

Neon

“Turning Red”

Domee Shi, Julia Cho, Sarah Streicher

Pixar

“Vengeance”

B.J. Novak

Focus Features

“X”

Ti West

A24

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.

2022 category winner: "Belfast" (Focus Features) - Kenneth Lonergan

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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