Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Jan. 12, 2023
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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Director
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: After two years of women winning for best director, Jane Campion and Chloe Zhao, we seem to be barreling towards zero women being recognized for their achievements.
As Natalie Portman famously pointed out at the Golden Globes in 2018, “here are the all-male nominees” for the DGA Awards, with Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert(“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Todd Field (“Tár”), Joseph Kosinski (“Top Gun: Maverick”), Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”).
Despite critically acclaimed movies from female directors like Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”), Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”), Chinonye Chukwu (“Till”) and Maria Schrader (“She Said”), the DGA shut them out, along with the Golden Globes.
No Black woman has ever been nominated for directing, despite ample opportunities with Ava DuVernay (“Selma”) and Regina King (“One Night in Miami”). If not now, then when for Prince-Bythewood? A career that has included “Love and Basketball” (2000) and “Beyond the Lights” (2014), her action-epic was a box office success with a stunning cast and artisans team. TriStar Pictures is giving the movie a limited reissue in domestic theaters over the MLK holiday weekend beginning Jan. 12, in over 800 theaters.
Also worthy is Chukwu, whose star Danielle Deadwyler is fighting for a spot in best actress.
After a stunning National Society of Film Critics pick up, “Aftersun” debut filmmaker Charlotte Wells might be able to muscle in a spot that has typically gone to an “international director from a non-English title” such as Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”).
And finally, just to put it out there — what if Alejandro G. Iñárritu is the new “David Lynch” nomination? Meaning, like Lynch for “Mulholland Dr.” (2001), he picks up a sole directing nod for “Bardo.” Totally possible.
AMPAS nomination voting is open and closes on Tuesday, Jan. 17 at 5 p.m. PT.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog" (Netflix)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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