Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: After two years of women winning for best director, Jane Campion and Chloe Zhao, we seem to be barreling towards zero women being recognized for their achievements.
As Natalie Portman famously pointed out at the Golden Globes in 2018, “here are the all-male nominees” for the DGA Awards, with Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert(“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Todd Field (“Tár”), Joseph Kosinski (“Top Gun: Maverick”), Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”).
Despite critically acclaimed movies from female directors like Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”), Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”), Chinonye Chukwu (“Till”) and Maria Schrader (“She Said”), the DGA shut them out, along with the Golden Globes.
No Black woman has ever been nominated for directing, despite ample opportunities with Ava DuVernay (“Selma”) and Regina King (“One Night in Miami”). If not now, then when for Prince-Bythewood? A career that has included “Love and Basketball” (2000) and “Beyond the Lights” (2014), her action-epic was a box office success with a stunning cast and artisans team. TriStar Pictures is giving the movie a limited reissue in domestic theaters over the MLK holiday weekend beginning Jan. 12, in over 800 theaters.
Also worthy is Chukwu, whose star Danielle Deadwyler is fighting for a spot in best actress.
After a stunning National Society of Film Critics pick up, “Aftersun” debut filmmaker Charlotte Wells might be able to muscle in a spot that has typically gone to an “international director from a non-English title” such as Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”).
And finally, just to put it out there — what if Alejandro G. Iñárritu is the new “David Lynch” nomination? Meaning, like Lynch for “Mulholland Dr.” (2001), he picks up a sole directing nod for “Bardo.” Totally possible.
AMPAS nomination voting is open and closes on Tuesday, Jan. 17 at 5 p.m. PT.
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2
Martin McDonagh
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
3
Todd Field
“Tár”
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
4
Joseph Kosinski
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.
5
Charlotte Wells
“Aftersun”
A24
Sophie reflects on the shared joy and private melancholy of a holiday she took with her father twenty years earlier. Memories real and imagined fill the gaps between as she tries to reconcile the father she knew with the man she didn’t.
Next in Line
6
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
7
Ruben Östlund
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
A fashion model celebrity couple join an eventful cruise for the super-rich.
8
Baz Luhrmann
“Elvis”
Warner Bros.
The life of American music icon Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
9
Edward Berger
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Netflix
A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
10
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
Netflix
An acclaimed journalist-turned-documentarian goes on an oneiric introspective journey to reconcile with the past, the present and his Mexican identity.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11
James Cameron
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
12
Gina Prince-Bythewood
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
13
Sarah Polley
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
14
S.S. Rajamouli
“RRR”
Variance Films
15
Damien Chazelle
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
16
Darren Aronofsky
“The Whale”
A24
17
Park Chan-wook
“Decision to Leave”
Mubi
18
Ryan Coogler
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
19
Maria Schrader
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
20
Sam Mendes
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
Also In Contention
21
Rian Johnson
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
22
Chinonye Chukwu
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
23
Ron Howard
“Thirteen Lives”
Amazon Studios/MGM
24
Oliver Hermanus
“Living”
Sony Pictures Classics
25
Luca Guadgnino
“Bones and All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
26
James Gray
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
27
Lukas Dhont
“Close”
A24
28
Elegance Bratton
“The Inspection”
A24
29
J.D. Dillard
“Devotion”
Sony Pictures
30
Antoine Fuqua
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—
David O. Russell
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
James Cameron
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Kenneth Branagh
“Death on the Nile”
20th Century Studios
—
Loren Bouchard, Bernard Derriman
“The Bob’s Burgers Movie”
20th Century Studios
—
Owen Kline
“Funny Pages”
A24
—
Joanna Hogg
“The Eternal Daughter”
A24
—
Saela Davis, Anna Rose Holmer
“God’s Creatures”
A24
—
Alex Garland
“Men”
A24
—
Charlotte Wells
“Aftersun”
A24
—
Claire Denis
“Stars at Noon”
A24
—
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
—
Darren Aronofsky
“The Whale”
A24
—
Dean Fleischer-Camp
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”
A24
—
Elegance Bratton
“The Inspection”
A24
—
Halina Reijn
“Bodies Bodies Bodies”
A24
—
Kogonada
“After Yang”
A24
—
Lukas Dhont
“Close”
A24
—
Ti West
“Pearl”
A24
—
Ti West
“X”
A24
—
Lila Neugebauer
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
—
Carey Williams
“Emergency”
Amazon Studios
—
Janus Metz
“All the Old Knives”
Amazon Studios
—
Lena Dunham
“Catherine Called Birdy”
Amazon Studios
—
Mariama Diallo
“Master”
Amazon Studios
—
Melissa Lesh, Trevor Beck Frost
“Wildcat”
Amazon Studios
—
Michael Grandage
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
—
Nikyatu Jusu
“Nanny”
Amazon Studios
—
Ryan White
“Good Night Oppy”
Amazon Studios
—
Santiago Mitre
“Argentina, 1985”
Amazon Studios
—
Ron Howard
“Thirteen Lives”
Amazon Studios/MGM
—
Antoine Fuqua
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
—
Cooper Raiff
“Cha Cha Real Smooth”
Apple Original Films
—
Peggy Holmes
“Luck”
Apple Original Films
—
Peter Farrelly
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”
Apple Original Films
—
Reginald Hudlin
“Sidney”
Apple Original Films
—
Rodrigo García
“Raymond & Ray”
Apple Original Films
—
Sean Anders, John Morris
“Spirited”
Apple Original Films
—
Abi Damaris Corbin
“Breaking”
Bleecker Street
—
Emma Holly Jones
“Mr. Malcolm’s List”
Bleecker Street
—
Frances O’Connor
“Emily”
Bleecker Street
—
Max Walker-Silverman
“A Love Song”
Bleecker Street
—
Scott McGehee, David Siegel
“Montana Story”
Bleecker Street
—
Julie Cohen, Betsy West
“Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down”
Briarcliff Entertainment
—
Damien Leone
“Terrifier 2”
Cinedigm
—
Daniel Roher
“Navalny”
CNN/Warner Bros.
—
Joel Crawford, Januel Mercado
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
DreamWorks Animation
—
Oleh Malamuzh, Oleksandra Ruban
“Mavka: The Forest Song”
Feelgood Entertainment
—
Goran Stolevski
“You Won’t Be Alone”
Focus Features
—
Adamma Ebo
“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.”
Focus Features
—
Agnieszka Smoczynska
“The Silent Twins”
Focus Features
—
Anthony Fabian
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Focus Features
—
Graham Moore
“The Outfit”
Focus Features
—
B.J. Novak
“Vengeance”
Focus Features
—
James Gray
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
—
Jim Archer
“Brian and Charles”
Focus Features
—
Michael Showalter
“Spoiler Alert”
Focus Features
—
Robert Eggers
“The Northman”
Focus Features
—
Simon Curtis
“Downton Abbey: A New Era”
Focus Features
—
Todd Field
“Tár”
Focus Features
—
John Michael McDonagh
“The Forgiven”
Focus Features
—
Alex Lockwood
“The End of Medicine”
Gravitas Ventures
—
Andrew Semans
“Resurrection”
IFC Films
—
Audrey Diwan
“Happening”
IFC Films
—
Claire Denis
“Both Sides of the Blade”
IFC Films
—
Cristian Mungiu
“R.M.N.”
IFC Films
—
Jeff Baena
“Spin Me Round”
IFC Films
—
Julian Higgins
“God’s Country”
IFC Films
—
Justin Kurzel
“Nitram”
IFC Films
—
Mariano Cohn, Gastón Duprat
“Official Competition”
IFC Films
—
Marie Kreutzer
“Corsage”
IFC Films
—
Stephen Frears
“The Lost King”
IFC Films
—
Jean-Pierre Dardenne, Luc Dardenne
“Tori and Lokita”
Janus Films
—
Jerzy Skolimowski
“EO”
Janus Films and Sideshow
—
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović
“Murina”
Kino Lorber
—
Mary Nighy
“Alice, Darling”
Lionsgate
—
Tom Gormican
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”
Lionsgate
—
Felix van Groeningen, Charlotte Vandermeersch
“The Eight Mountains”
M2 Pictures
—
Carlota Pereda
“Piggy”
Magnolia Pictures
—
Emelie Mahdavian
“Bitterbrush”
Magnolia Pictures
—
James Morosini
“I Love My Dad”
Magnolia Pictures
—
Lee Jung-jae
“Hunt”
Magnolia Pictures
—
Ryan Coogler
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Sam Raimi
“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”
Marvel Studios
—
Taika Waititi
“Thor: Love and Thunder”
Marvel Studios
—
George Miller
“Three Thousand Years of Longing”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Luca Guadagnino
“Bones and All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Reid Carolin, Channing Tatum
“Dog”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Sarah Polley
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Park Chan-wook
“Decision to Leave”
Mubi
—
David Cronenberg
“Crimes of the Future”
Neon
—
Hirokazu Kore-eda
“Broker”
Neon
—
Laura Poitras
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
Neon
—
Ruben Östlund
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
—
Alice Diop
“Saint Omer”
Neon/Super
—
Alejandro González Iñárritu
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
Netflix
—
Andrew Dominik
“Blonde”
Netflix
—
Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
“The Gray Man”
Netflix
—
Carrie Cracknell
“Persuasion”
Netflix
—
Chris Smith
“Sr.”
Netflix
—
Chris Williams
“The Sea Beast”
Netflix
—
Edward Berger
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Netflix
—
Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Netflix
—
Henry Selick
“Wendell and Wild”
Netflix
—
Jeremiah Zagar
“Hustle”
Netflix
—
Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”
Netflix
—
Margaret Brown
“Descendant”
Netflix
—
Matthew Warchus
“Matilda”
Netflix
—
Noah Baumbach
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Rian Johnson
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Romain Gavras
“Athena”
Netflix
—
Sally El Hosaini
“The Swimmers”
Netflix
—
Scott Cooper
“The Pale Blue Eye”
Netflix
—
Sebastián Lelio
“The Wonder”
Netflix
—
Tobias Lindholm
“The Good Nurse”
Netflix
—
Chinonye Chukwu
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
—
Damien Chazelle
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
—
Joseph Kosinski
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
—
Sanaa Lathan
“On the Come Up”
Paramount Pictures
—
Alice Winocour
“Paris Memories”
Pathé
—
Angus MacLane
“Lightyear”
Pixar
—
Domee Shi
“Turning Red”
Pixar
—
Phyllis Nagy
“Call Jane”
Roadside Attractions
—
John Patton Ford
“Emily the Criminal”
Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment
—
Gabe Polsky
“Butcher’s Crossing”
Saban Films
—
Mark Mylod
“The Menu”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Martin McDonagh
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Sam Mendes
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Sophie Hyde
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Tom George
“See How They Run”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Evgeny Afineevsky
“Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom”
Self-Distributed
—
David Leitch
“Bullet Train”
Sony Pictures
—
J.D. Dillard
“Devotion”
Sony Pictures
—
Josh Gordon, Will Speck
“Lyle, Lyle Crocodile”
Sony Pictures
—
Kasi Lemmons
“Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody”
Sony Pictures
—
Marc Forster
“A Man Called Otto”
Sony Pictures
—
Olivia Newman
“Where the Crawdads Sing”
Sony Pictures
—
Craig Roberts
“The Phantom of the Open”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine
“Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Davy Chou
“Return to Seoul”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Florian Zeller
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Kathlyn Horan
“The Return of Tanya Tucker: Featuring Brandi Carlile”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Lizzie Gottlieb
“Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb”
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog" (Netflix)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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