Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Dec. 22, 2022
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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: “Glass Onion” has debuted at no. 1 on the Netflix top 10 charts, solidifying its popularity and success in the Oscar buzz department (even if Ben Shapiro has his own strange thoughts on the subject). Rian Johnson, a former nominee for “Knives Out” (2019) in original screenplay, will likely benefit from a seemingly thinner than usual adapted screenplay field, which has only materialized with two other “slam dunk” entries — “Women Talking” by Sarah Polley and “Living” by Kazuo Ishiguro.
Sequels are not always a given in the Academy, but the Writers Branch tends to be more open to them. If the latest tale of Benoit Blanc (Daniel Craig) were nominated, it would be among “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2020), “Logan” (2017) and “Before Midnight” (2013) as the last nominees in the category. If it won, it would be the first since “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) and “The Godfather Part II” (1974), both of which won best picture. But I don’t think anyone is expecting “Glass Onion” to be “the one” in this field of contenders.
“All Quiet on the Western Front” has an easy opportunity to recognize director Edward Berger, one of the writers, if they can’t find room for him in the directing category.
It’s still relatively unclear what to make of “A Man Called Otto” by David Magee, “She Said” by Rebecca Lenkiewicz and “The Whale” by Samuel D. Hunter in this race, which all have pros and cons, in regards to their nominations potential.
But there’s room for a few surprises. “Top Gun: Maverick” could prove its popularity with the Academy by picking up a mention here, even if many think five-person written story is not one of its highlights.
We’ll see if some other big franchise movies like “Avatar: The Way of Water” or “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” have the gas to bring them into the fold, but they seem like long shots (at the moment).
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: "CODA" (Apple Original Films) - Siân Heder
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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