Final Oscars Predictions: Best Actress – Michelle Yeoh to Become First Asian and Second Woman of Color Since Halle Berry to Win Lead Actress

Clayton Davis
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: March 9, 2023

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress

TAR, Cate Blanchett, 2022. © Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection
TAR, Cate Blanchett, 2022. © Focus Features /Courtesy Everett Collection

Category commentary:

Michelle Yeoh became the first Asian woman to win a SAG lead actress film award for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Seeing her emotion take hold of her was heartwarming and long overdue for an actress that should have already been nominated for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000) and “Crazy Rich Asians” (2018).

Then there’s Cate Blanchett, after winning BAFTA, Critics Choice and Globes for “Tár,” and the only viable opportunity to reward the Todd Field psychological drama. If she wins, she’ll become the eighth performer to win three or more statuettes joining — Katharine Hepburn (4), Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Daniel Day-Lewis, Walter Brennan and Frances McDormand.

Yeoh turned it on at the right time. Her co-star James Hong may have also helped bring it home for her during his rousing SAG speech (and quite possibly Jamie Lee Curtis). She’ll be the first Asian to win lead actress at the Oscars, and the second woman of color after Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball” (2001).

It’ll be a photo finish.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Could Win: Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features)
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh
Should have been here: Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

Countdown to the Oscars with Variety here.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Film

Distributor

1

Michelle Yeoh

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

2

Cate Blanchett

“Tár”

Focus Features

Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.

3

Michelle Williams

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

4

Ana De Armas

“Blonde”

Netflix

A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.

5

Andrea Riseborough

“To Leslie”

Momentum Pictures

Inspired by true events. A West Texas single mother wins the lottery and squanders it just as fast, leaving behind a world of heartbreak. Years later, with her charm running out and nowhere to go, she fights to rebuild her life and find redemption.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (Searchlight Pictures)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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