Oscar Predictions: Best Actress – Could Jennifer Lawrence Make It Back to the Oscars for ‘Causeway?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Nov. 10, 2022

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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress

Tar Cate Blanchett
BONES AND ALL, from left: Taylor Russell, Timothee Chalamet, 2022. ph: Yannis Drakoulidis / © MGM / Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Jennifer Lawrence is a previous Oscar-winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” with three other nominations for “Winter’s Bone,” “Joy” and “American Hustle.” Her, alongside Brian Tyree Henry, could be surprising contenders for their work in “Causeway,” and there’s a focus from the studio to get her there.

Could we see for the first time in the 95-year history of the Academy, three women of color occupy the best actress lineup? A category that has only yielded one Black winner (Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball”) and zero Latinas and Asians, is due for a massive facelift. And this field warrants such an occasion with Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”), Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) leading the way.

In addition, also (somewhat) in the discussion is Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), Taylor Russell (“Bones and All”), Zar Amir Ebrahimi (“Holy Spider”), Anna Diop (“Nanny”) and Thandiwe Newton (“God’s Country”).

There are still familiar Academy staples in the race such as Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”), Rooney Mara (“Women Talking”) and Emma Thompson (“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”) that could easily take a few spots.

This remains one of the most competitive races overall this year.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Margot Robbie in “Babylon”
Margot Robbie in “Babylon”

And The Predicted Nominees Are:

Rank

Name

Film

Distributor

1

Michelle Yeoh

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.

2

Cate Blanchett

“Tár”

Focus Features

Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.

3

Michelle Williams

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.

4

Danielle Deadwyler

“Till”

Orion/United Artists Releasing

The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.

5

Viola Davis

“The Woman King”

Sony Pictures

A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.

Next in Line

9

Jennifer Lawrence

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.

6

Olivia Colman

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.

7

Rooney Mara

“Women Talking”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

In 2010, the women of an isolated religious community grapple with reconciling their reality with their faith. Based on the novel by Miriam Toews.

8

Margot Robbie

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.

10

Ana de Armas

“Blonde”

Netflix

A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.

Other Top-Tier Contenders

11

Emma Thompson

“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”

Searchlight Pictures

12

Taylor Russell

“Bones & All”

Amazon Studios

13

Zoe Kazan

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

14

Vicky Krieps

“Corsage”

IFC Films

15

Zar Amir Ebrahimi

“Holy Spider”

Utopia

16

Dale Dickey

“A Love Song”

Bleecker Street

17

Emma Corrin

“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”

Netflix

18

Letitia Wright

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

19

Frankie Corio

“Aftersun”

A24

20

Anna Diop

“Nanny”

Amazon Studios

Also In Contention

21

Zoe Saldaña

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

22

Florence Pugh

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros.

23

Jessica Chastain

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

24

Sally Hawkins

“The Lost King”

IFC Films

25

Léa Seydoux

“One Fine Morning”

Sony Pictures Classics

26

Thandiwe Newton

“God’s Country”

IFC Films

27

Mia Goth

“Pearl”

A24

28

Aubrey Plaza

“Emily the Criminal”

Roadside Attractions

29

Florence Pugh

“The Wonder”

Netflix

30

Elizabeth Banks

“Call Jane”

Roadside Attractions

Other Awards Possibilities

31

Naomi Ackie

“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”

Sony Pictures

32

Charibi Dean

“Triangle of Sadness”

Neon

33

Bella Ramsey

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Amazon Studios

34

Tang Wei

“Decision to Leave”

Mubi

35

Freida Pinto

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Bleecker Street

36

Haley Lu Richardson

“Montana Story”

Bleecker Street

37

Anya Taylor-Joy

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

38

Nathalie Issa

“The Swimmers”

Netflix

39

Tilda Swinton

“Three Thousand Years of Longing”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

40

Anna Kendrick

“Alice, Darling”

Lionsgate

Unranked Possible Contenders

Alisha Weir

“Matilda”

Netflix

Amandla Stenberg

“Bodies Bodies Bodies”

A24

Ana de Armas

“Blonde”

Netflix

Anamaria Vartolomei

“Happening”

IFC Films

Anna Kendrick

“Alice, Darling”

Lionsgate

Anya Taylor-Joy

“The Northman”

Focus Features

Anya Taylor-Joy

“The Menu”

Searchlight Pictures

Aubrey Plaza

“Emily the Criminal”

Roadside Attractions

Bella Ramsey

“Catherine Called Birdy”

Amazon Studios

Cate Blanchett

“Tár”

Focus Features

Charibi Dean

“Triangle of Sadness”

Neon

Constance Wu

“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”

Sony Pictures

Da’Vine Joy Randolph

“On the Come Up”

Paramount Pictures

Daisy Edgar-Jones

“Where the Crawdads Sing”

Sony Pictures

Dakota Johnson

“Am I OK?”

HBO Max

Dakota Johnson

“Persuasion”

Netflix

Dale Dickey

“A Love Song”

Bleecker Street

Danielle Deadwyler

“Till”

Orion/United Artists Releasing

Dianna Agron

“As They Made Us”

Quiver

Elizabeth Banks

“Call Jane”

Roadside Attractions

Elizabeth Olsen*

“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”

Marvel Studios

Emma Corrin

“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”

Netflix

Emma Thompson

“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”

Hulu/Searchlight Pictures

Florence Pugh

“The Wonder”

Netflix

Florence Pugh

“Don’t Worry Darling”

Warner Bros

Frankie Corio

“Aftersun”

A24

Freida Pinto

“Mr. Malcolm’s List”

Bleecker Street

Haley Lu Richardson

“Montana Story”

Bleecker Street

Jane Fonda

“Moving On”

No U.S. Distribution

Janelle Monáe*

“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

Netflix

Jennifer Lawrence

“Causeway”

A24/Apple Original Films

Jenny Slate

“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”

A24

Jessica Chastain

“The Good Nurse”

Netflix

Jessica Chastain*

“The Forgiven”

Roadside Attractions

Jessie Buckley

“Men”

A24

Jodie Turner-Smith

“After Yang”

A24

Julia Roberts

“Ticket to Paradise”

Universal Pictures

Juliette Binoche

“Both Sides of the Blade”

IFC Films

Léa Seydoux

“One Fine Morning”

Sony Pictures Classics

Léa Seydoux*

“Crimes of the Future”

Neon

Lesley Manville

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”

Focus Features

Letitia Wright

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Marvel Studios

Letitia Wright*

“The Silent Twins”

Focus Features

Lyric Ross

“Wendell and Wild”

Netflix

Manal Issa

“The Swimmers”

Netflix

Margaret Qualley

“Stars at Noon”

A24

Margot Robbie

“Amsterdam”

20th Century Studios

Margot Robbie

“Babylon”

Paramount Pictures

Mia Goth

“Pearl”

A24

Michelle Williams

“The Fabelmans”

Universal Pictures

Michelle Yeoh

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

A24

Naomi Ackie

“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”

Sony Pictures

Natalie Portman*

“Thor: Love and Thunder”

Marvel Studios

Nathalie Issa

“The Swimmers”

Netflix

Olivia Colman

“Empire of Light”

Searchlight Pictures

Penélope Cruz

“Official Competition”

IFC Films

Regina Hall

“Master”

Amazon Studios

Regina Hall

“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”

Universal Pictures

Rooney Mara*

“Women Talking”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Sally Hawkins

“The Lost King”

IFC Films

Sandra Drzymalska

“EO”

Janus Films and Sideshow

Saoirse Ronan

“See How They Run”

Searchlight Pictures

Sigourney Weaver

“The Good House”

Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions

Sosie Bacon

“Smile”

Paramount Pictures

Tamara Lawrance*

“The Silent Twins”

Focus Features

Tang Wei

“Decision to Leave”

Mubi

Taylor Russell

“Bones & All”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Tessa Thompson

“The Listener”

No U.S. Distribution

Thandiwe Newton

“All the Old Knives”

Amazon Studios

Thandiwe Newton

“God’s Country”

IFC Films

Tilda Swinton

“Three Thousand Years of Longing”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Vicky Krieps

“Corsage”

IFC Films

Viola Davis

“The Woman King”

Sony Pictures

Virginie Efira

“Paris Memories”

Pathé

Zar Amir Ebrahimi

“Holy Spider”

Utopia

Zaris-Angel Hator

“The Sea Beast”

Netflix

Zoe Kazan

“She Said”

Universal Pictures

Zoe Saldaña

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

20th Century Studios

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (Searchlight Pictures)

About Variety Awards Circuit:

Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes -- Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety's leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.

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