Oscar odds update: Austin Butler (‘Elvis’) takes the lead in Best Actor race following BAFTA win

Sometimes all it takes is one night to change the trajectory of an awards race. On February 19 Austin Butler won the BAFTA Award for Best Actor for playing the title music legend in “Elvis.” As a result, on February 22, Butler surpassed Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) in our odds to become the new Oscar front-runner. Scroll down to see the graph that shows Butler’s ascent since the BAFTAs.

Most Gold Derby users thought Colin Farrell would win the BAFTA for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” perhaps because his film was a British co-production at the British academy’s awards, which gave him homefield advantage. Butler ranked second in our forecasts with only a few hundred users predicting him out of thousands who placed their bets. That an American actor playing an American music icon was able to win over British voters was a real feat. And the fact that this was the first major industry peer group to announce winners for acting is a good sign that Hollywood will get behind him as well.

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SEEAustin Butler (‘Elvis’): ‘I never sang in front of anybody’ before this movie [Complete Interview Transcript]

That’s what our users think, anyway. Butler now has a slight advantage in the Best Actor Oscar race with leading odds of 7/2. As of this writing Fraser still has a slim lead with Expert journalists (11 are picking him, over 10 betting on Butler), but Gold Derby Editors now mostly favor the young breakout star, as do a majority of our All-Star Top 24. At the moment our Top 24 Users are split right down the middle, with 12 apiece backing Butler and Fraser.

The next major test for Butler will be the SAG Awards this weekend. There Butler has taken a big lead with Experts and Editors, though Fraser still gets best odds overall (that might have changed by the time you read this). Which way do you think the rest of this season will go?

PREDICTthe 2023 Oscar winners through March 12

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

Best of GoldDerby

• Colin Farrell ('The Banshees of Inisherin'): 'I'm pinching myself' over Oscar nomination [Complete Interview Transcript]

• Paul Mescal ('Aftersun'): I'm 'grateful' Charlotte Wells encouraged so much 'creative freedom' on set [Complete Interview Transcript]

• Hong Chau ('The Whale'): I was 'very hesitant' to return to work, but found the story 'so heartbreaking' [Complete Interview Transcript]

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