Oscar history could be key to predicting Original Screenplay winner

Jacob Sarkisian
·6 min read
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“Anatomy of a Fall” is the clear favorite to win Best Original Screenplay this year but nominees “The Holdovers,” “Past Lives,” “Maestro,” and “May December” are all hoping to spoil the party. But is “Anatomy of a Fall’s” status as frontrunner as solid as it seems? It’s won a bunch of precursor awards, sure, but what about the academy?

What movies do they like best in this category? Let’s take a look at the last 10 winners of Best Original Screenplay to see what they can tell us about the academy’s tastes in this category, and how that affects “Anatomy of a Fall” and this year’s nominees.

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As you can see, drama is the order of the day for academy voters. Five out of the last 10 winners here have been serious fare: Kenneth Branagh‘s “Belfast,” Emerald Fennell‘s “Promising Young Woman,” and Kenneth Lonergan‘s “Manchester by the Sea” plus the historical dramas “Green Book” (written by Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga) and “Spotlight” (written by Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer).

The other five winners each come from a different genre: sci-fi (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert‘s “Everything Everywhere All at Once”), thriller (Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won‘s “Parasite”), horror (Jordan Peele‘s “Get Out”), comedy (“Birdman,” written by Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., Nicolás Giacobone, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu), and romance (Spike Jonze‘s “Her”).

Drama is heavily represented here. But what is even more heavily favored is fiction. Some original scripts are entirely that — original. An original story with original characters, like “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Some are original scripts, however, that tell the story of a real-life event or person, such as “Spotlight.” However, only two of the past 10 winners in this category have been films that tell real-life stories: “Spotlight” and “Green Book.” “Belfast” is a personal work of Branagh’s but it is still a work of fiction. The academy LOVE an entirely fictional piece of writing in this category and they most like fictional dramas.

But let’s not stop at genre. Let’s look at who wrote those scripts. All 10 of those winning movies were written or co-written by their film’s directors. That stat shows just how much academy voters appreciate writer-directors. Plus, all 10 of those winners were all also nominated for Best Picture, with half of them going on to win Best Picture — “Birdman,” “Spotlight,” “Green Book,” “Parasite,” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” That is a helluva record!

But what does that mean for this year’s Best Original Screenplay contenders? Let’s take a look.

“Anatomy of a Fall” depicts a wife who murders her husband but must then contend with the fact that the sole witness of the crime was her blind son. Director Justine Triet co-wrote the script with Arthur Harari. This is their first Oscar nomination while Triet is also nominated for Best Director. This one is being billed as a drama and it’s fictional. So that is three ticks here: a drama, fictional, and from a writer-director.

“The Holdovers” follows a disliked teacher looking after students at a college who stay behind during Christmastime. Another drama. This one is written by “Black-Ish” and “Whiskey Cavalier” scribe David Hemingson, for whom this is his first Oscar nomination. This has one tick: it’s fictional. Comedies rarely win in this category, so this hurts its chances. Plus, Hemingson is a plain old writer here as Alexander Payne directed the movie. The last Best Original Screenplay winner who was just a writer and not a writer-director was David Seidler, who won for “The King’s Speech” back in 2011. That also hurts “The Holdovers'” chances of a win.

“Past Lives,” written and directed by Celine Song, tells the story of two childhood friends who meet by chance years later and find that their connection is still strong. This is a moving drama with lashings of romance but it is a drama first and foremost, so that’s one tick. It’s also fictional. Two ticks. And Song is a writer-director. Three ticks! Song has never been nominated for an Oscar before.

“May December” is a drama written by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik. It tells the story of an actress who stays with a couple in order to research for a film based on the couple’s dark past. The film is a drama, so that’s a tick, but Todd Haynes directs here while Burch and Mechanik are scribes only. That weakens its chances. Plus, the film is based on a true story, even if it is loosely based on it. So that’s only one tick in total.” This is Burch and Mechanik’s first Oscar bid.

The drama “Maestro” charts the marriage between Leonard Bernstein and Felicia Montealegre. Director Bradley Cooper co-wrote the screenplay with Josh Singer, who won Best Original Screenplay with Tom McCarthy in 2016 for “Spotlight.” Cooper has nine Oscar nominations to his name. He’s reaped three Best Actor bids: “Silver Linings Playbook” in 2013, “American Sniper” in 2015, and “A Star is Born” in 2019. He’s also picked up a Best Supporting Actor nomination (for “American Hustle” in 2014) and a Best Adapted Screenplay bid (for “A Star is Born”). Surprisingly, the category he has received the most nominations in is Best Picture — with four so far. His first came in 2015 for “American Sniper” and he was nominated in 2019 for “A Star is Born,” which he also wrote and directed. He contended in 2020 for “Joker” and in 2022 for “Nightmare Alley.” “Joker” is the only one of the four Best Picture bids in which he did not appear. Anyhow, this is the only nominee that isn’t a fictional story. This goes against “Maestro,” although it is a drama and Cooper is a writer-director so that’s two ticks.

Based on this exercise, then, “Anatomy of a Fall” truly does deserve its frontrunner status. That chimes because the film won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes and Best Original Screenplay at the BAFTAs. “Past Lives” is also a strong contender and has three ticks here, so if an upset is going to happen in this category, look to Song and “Past Lives.”

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