Oscar Experts Typing: Are we underestimating Greta Lee in Best Actress?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we take a look at the Best Actress race following Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and we’ve circled back around to the Best Actress race. Since we last typed about this one in November there’s been a disturbance in the Force among the experts: Lily Gladstone has finally overtaken Emma Stone as the frontrunner, this after Gladstone has cruised through the early stages of the precursor season with wins from the New York Film Critics Circle, National Board of Review and other regional critics groups. I personally moved her into first place just after the Gotham Awards, where Gladstone won the ceremony’s lead performance award for her work in “The Unknown Country,” since she wasn’t submitted for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” (No worries, since “Flower Moon” received one of the many Icon & Creator tributes that night.) To me, the vibes are just too strong. It feels like Gladstone will win Best Actress at the Oscars because everyone thinks she should win Best Actress at the Oscars. So Gladstone is out front with Stone and her “Poor Things” masterwork close behind. (Stone won at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association for lead performance and I expect she’ll wind up with at least one other major award before the season is out.) The rest of the category… feels like its has firmed up? Even in all his press, including the delightful Directors on Directors interview with Spike Lee, Bradley Cooper has made it a point to discuss Carey Mulligan‘s commitment to the craft (he compared her to Denzel Washington while talking with Spike). After strong showings at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, Margot Robbie feels increasingly safe for “Barbie.” And with “The Color Purple” struggling among critics groups thus far and “May December” focusing in on its supporting players, “Anatomy of a Fall” star Sandra Hüller probably has an advantage over, respectively, Fantasia Barrino and Natalie Portman. Gladstone, Stone, Mulligan, Robbie and Huller are the expected Best Actress nominees, according to our odds, and that’s what I’ve landed on at this point, with apologies to Annette Bening, whom I finally dropped. If that ends up being the list, and if the Best Picture race goes according to plan as well, it would mean all five actresses star in Best Picture nominees. That hasn’t happened since… 1977? I’m sure you’ll correct me if that’s wrong, but it’s a rare occurrence no matter what and would feel like a precedent-breaker were it to happen. So, is it wrong to bet on something that uncommon? Should I find room again for Bening or Portman, or should I put “The Color Purple” back into Best Picture and drop “Anatomy of a Fall”? What do you think the final five will look like, and is Gladstone as far out in front as I assume?

joyceeng: The last time Best Picture and Best Actress came close to matching also involved Robbie, when she earned her first Best Actress bid for “I, Tonya” but the film just missed Best Picture in the sliding scale era of the preferential ballot. The alignment has only happened four times and the 1977 season is the most impressive because, unlike the other three, it’s the only instance when Best Picture and Best Actress had fields of five. So I guess we’re due for another one 46 years later with 10 Best Picture nominees? The Stones are the only true locks in this race and I’ve always felt good about Hüller, who’s just cooking throughout “Anatomy of a Fall” with firecracker scene after firecracker scene. She shared LAFCA’s lead performance prize with Stone and nabbed Best Actress at the European Film Awards, where “Anatomy” won every category for which it was nominated. The Palme d’Or champ is the international film of the season even if it can’t win Best International Feature Film at the Oscars. Robbie feels safe not just because “Barbie” is a big player but because the other contenders have more weaknesses than she does. I still have Mulligan, but she feels kind of vulnerable now. As tremendous as she is in “Maestro,” especially the third act, all the win talk has obviously been centered on Cooper, and I’m not sure she will have even have a regional critics award to show for her work. She may just be a perennial nominee throughout the season, but maybe that’s enough to secure a slot. Portman and Greta Lee feel like they’re right on the cusp of the top five. “Past Lives” is the stronger film and has had a great couple of weeks, but “May December” could easily claim one of the final Best Picture spots too. Both performances feel like they could generate the passionate No. 1 votes to get in. Bening and Barrino got Globe noms but were snubbed by Critics Choice. Neither is the industry, but also not great to miss when your supporting co-star makes it in. I can see both of them getting in at the SAG Awards, but that probably won’t be enough in such a packed year. I don’t expect Hüller to make SAG, but I think she’s the only one who can survive a SAG miss. Both of them got the Oscar nom in the end, but what if there were a surprising Kristen Stewart– and Michelle Williams-esque SAG snub of the non-Hüller top contenders? Who would it be?

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Christopher Rosen: I think you’re right on about Mulligan. That’s a SAG-friendly performance and there’s the Netflix of it all, but it feels like Lee should be on the list of nominees (probably in place of Hüller) and then Mulligan could conceivably miss for Portman or Barrino. But I also think Portman might be a tougher sell — a lot of normies seem flummoxed by “May December” and SAG is the most normie of awards shows, so perhaps Mulligan’s down-the-middle awards-friendly work will resonate more. (I just have a hard time imaging Stone, Gladstone and Robbie falling short at SAG.) The Globes and Critics Choice Awards don’t matter, except that they do, and you’re right to find the Bening and Barrino misses concerning. But Lee feels like the biggest winner in this category outside of the Stones. “Past Lives” just keeps hanging around like Mike McD against Teddy KGB, and the vibes are just really strong around its whole narrative. Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay are its best bets, but I think Lee could definitely get in with that aforementioned passion in place of either Mulligan or Robbie. That would still give us five Best Actresses for five Best Picture nominees, so yay history. Does Lee have the edge to you over Portman, Barrino, Bening and Cailee Spaeny (who I want to mention just because she is absolutely awesome in “Priscilla” and should rate somewhere this season beyond her Volpi Cup win)?

joyceeng: I love Spaeny’s performance, but “Priscilla” has sadly not caught on with awards groups, so she’s firmly in 10th to me. She likely would’ve missed the Globes were it not for the sixth slot this year. I go back and forth on whether Lee or Portman is ahead of the other, so I’ll just say they’re tied for sixth right now. It’s fun because their performances are so different. Lee’s is subtle (too subtle for bait-loving SAG?), and while Portman isn’t out here chewing the scenery in “May December,” she plays an actress trying to get into character and has that monster monologue, which could play well to her fellow thespians. “May December” does leave some people mystified or just outright hating it, but I think that affects it more in Best Picture, not individual categories. Besides, a lot of people have one or both of Julianne Moore and Charles Melton in at SAG and the Oscars now, and Portman would probably be heavily predicted as well if her category were not so competitive. I think the bigger question is: Which underdog no one is talking about right now will Frances Fisher endorse?

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Will ‘May December’ score a Best Picture nomination in January?

Christopher Rosen: I’m sure Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor will get a renewed push in some circles for “Origin,” particularly after that wide release on Jan. 19. But if there’s a small film with a big heart that could shock I’d maybe direct my attention to “A Thousand and One” and Teyana Taylor. Like “Past Lives,” that Sundance hit has hung around all season and Taylor has made the cut where she needed to make the cut. It’s a long shot but stranger things have happened — just ask Andrea Riseborough. But I’ll let you have the last word, who am I missing?

joyceeng: Taylor really deserves to show up at more regionals than she is (shout-out to Florida for nominating her and just having a totally cool list of nominees in general, including your beloved Donnie Yen for “John Wick: Chapter 4”). I’ll stump for the youngest hopeful in this race: Abby Ryder Fortson, who’s such a spark in “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” I don’t think anyone has high hopes, especially since Rachel McAdams is having trouble sealing a spot in supporting actress, but “Margaret” is, too, a small film with a big heart. There’s just so many of them!

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