Oscar Experts Typing: Will ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Poor Things’ dominate the BAFTAs?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Sunday’s BAFTA Awards, where two films are expected to win big.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Or should I say, ‘ello guv’nor? We’re back here to type about this weekend’s BAFTA Awards, where we both expect “Oppenheimer” to dominate. As we discussed with our voices this week (no English accents required), I have Christopher Nolan’s awards juggernaut winning 10 honors — including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor for Cillian Murphy, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr. and — my most galaxy brain pick — Best Supporting Actress for Emily Blunt. That’s right: I think the British academy will be so out of this world for the Destroyer of Worlds that not even Da’Vine Joy Randolph can sweep through the season unscathed. (For those reading, don’t worry: Even if my upset prediction comes true, Randolph will still sail through to her Oscar win next month.) I guess the only thing that gives me pause about my bullish stance on “Oppenheimer” is last year, when BAFTA Award voters went their own way in every single above-the-line category. We’ve discussed how that doesn’t mean BAFTA “got it wrong” last year by picking “All Quiet on the Western Front” for picture and director when “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won those categories and three acting categories at the Oscars, but it does show this is a group not afraid to march to the beat of their own drums. It’s partially why I have a hard time thinking the acting races will go as expected in our odds: Murphy, Downey, Emma Stone and Randolph. Those four performers are the leaders in our Oscar odds as well (though Paul Giamatti and Lily Gladstone are right there in the lead categories) and that quartet coming back to the U.S. with BAFTA Awards in their carry-on bags would mean the Oscars and BAFTA could line up in every above-the-line category. So, *Meryl Streep voice* I have such doubts. Many sharp observers think the fly in the ointment will be Sandra Hüller in Best Actress over Stone. That’s certainly possible: You could argue “Anatomy” was more broadly embraced by the BAFTA Awards due to its nominations for Best Director and Best Casting, two spots “Poor Things” failed to surface. But “Poor Things” feels like the alternate to “Oppenheimer” in several craft categories and I’ve got it winning in multiple spots beyond Stone. So let’s start there: If there’s an acting “upset” as it were, where do you think it’ll occur?

joyceeng: Obviously Best Actress. After nominations last month, I would’ve said this is a coin flip between Stone and Hüller, and it’s still feels like a close race, but with “Poor Things” peaking at absolutely the right time these past three weeks and Stone’s London Film Critics’ Circle triumph, I think Stone has the edge to claim her second BAFTA. I would not be surprised at all if it’s Hüller’s name in the envelope — she has a better shot of winning Best Actress than Best Supporting Actress for “The Zone of Interest” — but a trend this season has been both of her films getting awarded while she sits on the sidelines. I fear that might continue at BAFTA, but I would welcome a Hüller victory since she’s not nominated at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I just want maximum chaos magic. Speaking specifically about acting, the BAFTAs and the Oscars have obviously matched 4/4 before, but not since the Brits instituted the jury system, which, of course, is just for the nominations phase. Who’s to say they can’t match 4/4 again? Especially when there’s such a strong Best Picture frontrunner that could yield two acting wins. Plus, some of the BAFTAs’ mismatches are due to snubs, ineligibility or category swaps, like how none of their six Best Actress nominees two years ago were nominated at the Oscars. Or when they put Alicia Vikander in lead for “The Danish Girl” instead of supporting. Or when Regina King was AWOL for “If Beale Street Could Talk.” “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” are expected to have a big night and I have nearly every category split between them, but now on the eve of Presidents Day weekend, I’m wondering if I’m over-predicting one of them. Or both? Less so with “Oppenheimer,” but I have “Poor Things” in adapted screenplay and I’m considering going back to “Oppie.” I also have “Poor Things” in Best Makeup and Hair and Best Visual Effects, which we discussed at length the other day, and now I’m like, will it really win those too?

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Christopher Rosen: Well, don’t look to me for a lot of help. I have “Oppenheimer” in adapted screenplay just because it’s “Oppenheimer.” But I do think “Poor Things” is a strong choice for hair and makeup, even if I’m pondering going back to “Maestro” for the Oscars. It’s possible we’re over-predicting these movies, but can you blame us? This season has lined up for “Oppenheimer” to dominate and I just feel like it will whenever possible. It remains a frontrunner without many demerits or attackers. We haven’t talked about Best Actor yet, but we both have Murphy there and I’ve seen some chatter that perhaps he could falter — an obvious winner knocked off by one of his American opponents, a la Colin Farrell last year. I don’t really believe it, but this week you made the argument that if it were to happen, perhaps Bradley Cooper pulls off this upset instead of the expected runner up in Giamatti. It would make sense and, I’m almost tempted to predict the upset. I won’t (I promise), but what makes you think Cooper is a bigger factor here than some might expect?

joyceeng: I regret to inform you that I just switched to one of the funniest films of 2023, “Napoleon” (coming to an Apple TV+ near you on March 1), in visual effects. Will I change this again before Sunday? Probably not because I’m too lazy. I’m not moving Cooper higher than third, but he has, on paper, the typical transformative biopic bait role to which voters are partial. But I think “Maestro” is too divisive and lacks passion at the end of the day. Cooper did get a Best Director nomination, but he was clearly a jury pick, and the film missed the Best Picture field of five, while its other bids were par for the course, so I wouldn’t say the Brits are besotted with “Maestro.” And it hasn’t really had a resurgence since it survived The Discourse in December. How about the one category neither “Oppenheimer” nor “Poor Things” can win and that we both suck at predicting, Best Casting? We both have “Anatomy of a Fall,” but any of the nominees could prevail. Is this where “Killers of the Flower Moon” gets its sole win? Will they go Full British with “How to Have Sex” a la “Rocks”? I am prepared to get this one wrong again.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Is there room for an upset in Best Actor?

Christopher Rosen: I feel like “Killers” is the red herring here because it should win (caveat that I interviewed Ellen Lewis and Rene Haynes, so I’m #biased), but it doesn’t seem like the movie fully connected with the BAFTA membership. I think “How to Have Sex” is a strong possibility just because it’s the apple in a bag of oranges by virtue of it being absent from the Oscars discourse (plus, we both have Mia McKenna-Bruce winning rising star). But I’ll stick with “Anatomy of a Fall” because it just feels right and we can pretend its casting award is partially for finding Snoop/Messi. I’ll leave you with the last word, Joyce — or should I say last woof?

joyceeng: Wow. That was ruff. I’ll just stick with “Anatomy” too because I feel like whatever I might change to would still be wrong as this is my fate. And BAFTA voting did close on Tuesday, one day after Messi stole the show at the Oscar luncheon, so maybe some last-minute voters threw “Anatomy” a bone (#sorrynotsorry).

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