Oscar Experts Typing: Is Martin Scorsese the Best Director favorite again?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the loaded Best Director category.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and there’s a new Martin Scorsese picture in theaters, so what better time than now for us to type about the packed 2024 Oscars Best Director race? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: As with other categories, this year’s Best Director race runs so deep that I could make a compelling case for 14 or 15 top contenders. But despite strong work from newcomers like Celine Song and Cord Jefferson and veterans like David Fincher and Todd Haynes, it feels like there is a relatively firm consensus forming around five names. Scorsese, of course, the greatest of all time — beloved by Film Twitter and industry pros alike. Christopher Nolan for “Oppenheimer,” who’s overdue for academy recognition and directed the year’s biggest drama and top Best Picture choice. Yorgos Lanthimos, a past nominee and the mad genius with Emma Stone behind “Poor Things.” Greta Gerwig, herself a past nominee and the director of the year’s biggest movie in “Barbie.” And Jonathan Glazer, the elite filmmaker whose new film “The Zone of Interest” is his first in a decade and already well positioned as this year’s Most Important Movie. Those are the top contenders in the Gold Derby odds, and this week I succumbed to the groupthink, replacing Alexander Payne for “The Holdovers” with Glazer to complete my picks. (Payne currently sits in sixth place.) These potential nominees feel kind of right based on recent history and the movies they folks directed. But as I typed a few pixels up the page, there are a lot of others who could easily stake claim to a nomination — including Justine Triet for “Anatomy of Fall,” the Cannes winner. That film is a beloved entry in the “HBO limited series but make it cinema” canon, and it would be easy to imagine her cracking the list if the movie can make it into Best Picture as well. I know you have Triet in there at the moment and Payne — leaving Gerwig and Glazer on the side of the road. I could see it happening — Gerwig isn’t a slam dunk even if “Barbie” is a locked-down Best Picture nominee — but I’ll let you make the case for Triet and Payne over the ostensible favorites.

joyceeng: Payne’s record speaks for itself: three Best Director nominations (all against Marty) and two screenplay wins. He’s obviously in the club and we know how insular the directing branch can be. As we’ve discussed, “The Holdovers” has major Boomer energy, and while I can see him missing due to the crowdedness, I think as long as the film remains a top five contender, Payne is more in than out. But he’s definitely shaping up to be the “Oscar villain” of this category. Film Twitter won’t be stumping hard for him, even if they like the movie in general, and won’t be pleased if he makes it in over one of their faves, like Gerwig or Song, who’s dropped down to eighth now that the top dogs have entered the chat. I totally get favoring Glazer over Triet of the Cannes darlings — hell, I once had both and want to re-add Glazer — but I think the accessibility of “Anatomy of a Fall” can help her here. Triet’s direction has been underrated when it’s a large part of why the film is as gripping and engaging as it is. She melds a courtroom procedural with a relationship drama with a psychological thriller, and her versatile coverage of each “genre” is effortless and fluid. Neon is also behind “Anatomy of a Fall” and you know it’s going to pull out all the stops to ensure it gets seen and talked about. A+ for this website already. Two people we haven’t mentioned yet but are in the top 10 are Bradley Cooper and Blitz Bazawule. “The Color Purple” is still largely unseen, but neither of us slotted in Cooper after seeing “Maestro” two weeks ago. BCoop for sure leveled up behind the camera, but it just feels too loaded at the top this year. Ridley Scott is right outside in 11th and I wanna predict him just for the baller “Napoleon” trailer?

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SEE Experts slugfest: ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ is here — will it bring Scorsese another Oscar?

Christopher Rosen: We’ve been doing this together for a while, and it just so happens the prolific Sir Ridley has remained exceedingly busy. So it feels like every year, I keep trying to figure out a way to predict him — whether it be for “House of Gucci” or “The Last Duel” or now “Napoleon”… and every year, I can’t make room for a guy the academy, and particularly this branch, just seems to take for granted. In terms of Old Guys Doing Bangers, I feel like there’s more juice for Michael Mann for “Ferrari” than Scott, even though most people I’ve talked to outside of the true Mann Heads found the film a little lacking. I feel like Scott will get in here again, but probably for “Gladiator 2”? That said, “Napoleon” does look awesome and I’ve heard secondhand that it is pretty much what you’d expect: great battles, beautiful battles, with a couple of awesome lead performances from Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby. I don’t think it’s impossible he makes it in, but with Scorsese, Nolan, Mann and Fincher all seemingly vying for what I’d lovingly call the Film Bro vote, it feels like he might get squeezed out. We’ve talked about Cooper and while the parts of “Maestro” are all top level — something that speaks well of his work as a director — and the film is a step up on the auteur scale from “A Star Is Born,” I don’t think he’s quite respected yet as a filmmaker. We’ve seen the academy move away from male movie stars-turned-filmmakers and I don’t think “Maestro” will reverse that trend. If only Cooper was around in the ’90s, he could have beat Marty one year like Kevin Costner or Clint Eastwood. (I didn’t forget Bazawule, but I think “The Color Purple” would have to be remarkable for him to make the final cut; I also think Jefferson could get in here too — one pundit is predicting him over Lanthimos — but I’m not ready to have that conversation, and even I didn’t move him into my predictions yet despite being Mr. Overreaction to Recency Bias.) This is a conversation we’ll have for months, but let’s start it now before we close tabs for the weekend: We both have Nolan winning Best Director, and he’s the overwhelming choice. But I’ve been swayed enough by the recent promo push to feel like Scorsese could ultimately win, even if “Flower Moon” doesn’t go all the way in Best Picture. At the very least, this is his most serious shot in the category since “The Departed.” What do you think, Joyce? Will Marty get one more Best Director Oscar before his career is done?

joyceeng: Now that “Flower Moon” is out, I am curious to see if/how fast it and Scorsese reclaim the top spots in the Best Picture and Best Director odds, respectively. I certainly don’t need to tell you that it’s very easy for people to switch allegiances in the instant afterglow of watching a highly anticipated film by a GOAT director that’s gotten glowing reviews. We’ve talked about a split with Nolan taking director and something else claiming Best Picture, but I think if “Flower Moon” triumphs, Scorsese will win his second directing statuette too. I think a split for both “Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” would occur if a smaller scale, less showy film, like “The Holdovers,” wins Best Picture, a la “Spotlight”/”The Revenant” or “Green Book”/”Roma.” You know I am loath to make impulsive changes, so I still have “Oppenheimer” and Nolan right now, but I fully support “Flower Moon” and Marty reasserting themselves because it keeps things interesting. (And if you’re an Oppie stan, the target will move off its back.) We’ve discussed how Scorsese has been flying solo on the exhaustive promo and campaign trail due to the actors’ strike, and that’s been a boon to his personal press and narrative. Like it’s effin’ hilarious he’s out here sharing how he and Robert De Niro roasted Leonardo DiCaprio on set and Leo can’t even respond. Obviously everyone and their mother knew that “Killers of the Flower Moon” is a Martin Scorsese joint, but he’s really become synonymous with and the face of the film in a way that would not have occurred had the actors been able to promote it too. I don’t know if that’s enough to help him win because I feel it’ll ultimately come down to which film they like more. I’d be remiss if I didn’t spend some ink on Lathinimos as well, seeing as he’s the third of the consensus top three in this race now. “Poor Things” is perfectly weird and weirdly perfect and perfectly Yorgos. I’m not sure if he can prevail over the top two at this stage in late October, but maybe if “Poor Things” goes over huge. Can’t wait for it and him to ascend to first place after Dec. 8.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Which film will double up on Best Supporting Actor nominees?

Christopher Rosen: Lanthimos just feels like a guy who should win Best Director, but I’m not ready to put him up top just yet. We really haven’t touched on Gerwig either and I just want to say that when I was at Telluride this year, at least one person suggested she could ultimately win here because of the way “Barbie” was a perfect marriage of commerce and art. I’d love to see it, but I won’t believe it until I do see it. So I’ll end here before I talk myself into her and leave you with the last word.

joyceeng: Gerwig winning for “Barbie” would be cool af, but I’d be pleased with a nomination, especially since she missed for “Little Women” in another jam-packed race. While she definitely has a lot of visible support from fans and fellow auteurs, I can’t help but feel there will still be a contingent that’s reticent about recognizing a “toy commercial.” If the year were way weaker, she’d have Kenough to get in.

PREDICTthe 2024 Oscar nominees by Jan. 23

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