Oscar Experts Typing: Which film will double up on Best Supporting Actor nominations?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·9 min read

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Supporting Actor, where four spots feel secure.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday, and we’re Kenough? One week after typing about the truly unhinged race for Best Supporting Actress, we’re back to put some words on the page about Best Supporting Actor. Fortunately, this category feels a little more firmed up — with four actors heavily predicted by experts, pundits, and regular folks. It starts with Robert Downey Jr. for “Oppenheimer,” the favorite here, and with good reason. He’s a huge star whom everyone loves and he’s in the biggest movie that’s the Best Picture frontrunner and his performance is amazing. That doesn’t mean Downey will win, but as we talked about this week in our slugfest, this is the category and the result in which I’m most confident at this stage in the season. But if not Downey, then who? I have to say, we got an email this week that laid out a pretty compelling case for Ryan Gosling for “Barbie,” and I’m here for that. I have Gosling in second and he absolutely gave my favorite performance of the year. But as you’ve warned, it’s not a great bet to confuse online support and personal preference with how the industry will vote. Plus, Gosling has a strong foil in the race in terms of Mark Ruffalo, who is the “Poor Things” version of Ken and arguably better than ever before. Rounding out the quartet of favorites is Robert De Niro for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” No disrespect to “The Irishman” but this is the best De Niro has been since “The Intern” and it’s his best Scorsese collaboration since “Casino” (that’s kind of a trick, of course, since the only other option after “Casino” is “The Irishman,” but let’s allow it!). It would be an upset if the winner here wasn’t one of those four guys, but there’s still room for one more nominee. Popular picks at the moment include Willem Dafoe for “Poor Things,” Jesse Plemons for “Flower Moon,” and someone else from “Oppenheimer.” I’ve got Matt Damon represented in my fifth slot since he’s maybe the best part of the Christopher Nolan film and he’s had the type of resurgent year that I feel will resonate with voters. But if we don’t have a double nominee film in this category, then that leaves some other interesting contenders — including Charles Melton from “May December,” Colman Domingo from “The Color Purple,” John Magaro from “Past Lives,” and Dominic Sessa from “The Holdovers.” Joyce, how do you see that last spot shaking out — and is there any chance the Core Four winds up as a Key Three?

joyceeng: I’m typing this as I listen to Gosling’s cover of “Push” for the 2,012th time. I obviously have the top four as well and I’m not going to move off of any of them yet at this stage. Since this category has been obsessed with double noms since “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” broke the 26-year dry spell, I am predicting the sixth pair in seven years — not for “Oppenheimer” but “Poor Things” with Dafoe. He’s a four-time nominee and was a passion pick on his last nom for “At Eternity’s Gate.” Damon should have more acting nominations than he does, and while he has the next biggest supporting role, “Oppenheimer” boasts such a sprawling cast that I can see some of them eating into his support (there are some hardcore Tom Conti stans out there). I don’t think “Flower Moon” would double up simply because Plemons, who’s very good, comes in so late with the function of solving the murders. But who knows? If they’re over the, uh, moon for “Flower Moon” and don’t care about anyone else, maybe he’ll coattail, but De Niro (who should’ve won an Oscar for “The Intern,” do not @ me) sucks up all the oxygen as the film’s dominant supporting actor and villain. A Margaro nom would certainly make Film Twitter happy, but I feel like he would’ve had a better shot getting in last season. Similarly, like we discussed last week, Melton and Sessa will both be viewed as “breakthrough performers” even though the latter is the true newcomer making their film debut, so is there enough room for two “breakthroughs”? It would be such a cool flex if Melton got in without Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore though. Once upon a time, I had “The Color Purple” getting four acting nominations and now I’m down to two, Domingo being one of the ones I cut. I’m going to hold on that until the film is widely screened, but I think his best shot at a maiden nom is in Best Actor for “Rustin.” I’ll toss out some other long shots here: Glenn Howerton, unhinged in “Blackberry”; our fave Chris Messina, also unhinged in “Air”; both “All of Us Strangers” boys (Jamie Bell and Paul Mescal); either Jacob Elordi (“Saltburn,” “Priscilla”); and Tom Hardy, who’s 12th in the odds for “The Bikeriders.” Will his unintelligible accent pull him through?

More from GoldDerby

SEE Experts slugfest: Taraji P. Henson’s latest boost, below-the-line Oscar predictions and more

Christopher Rosen: This is a fun category because — no shade to the Core Four, all of whom I love! — you could make a pretty great lineup of nominees without any of the top contenders. Of the group you mentioned, I personally think Sessa has the best shot at a nomination, since “The Holdovers” is a prime, down-the-middle Oscar fave in waiting — and if its festival run is any indication, it seems like the kind of overall contender that will speak to Boomers and those younger voters who have hazy nostalgia for Boomers. Elordi would be great — but he probably splits his own vote with two wildly different performances and films. I loved “The Bikeriders” — alongside “Saltburn” it is my favorite movie of the fall cycle so far — and Hardy would be a worthy nominee, but I was most blown away by relative newcomer Toby Wallace in a small but crucial role. I can’t imagine he’ll break through the crowd, however, so we can safely assume he’ll settle for some “breakthrough” recognition during the season. You mentioned the double nominees trend here, but we never landed on another contender from “Barbie.” I would humbly suggest Michael Cera, however, particularly if there are people caping for Plemons. Cera has an equally small but key role in “Barbie” and Allan is a fan fave. If a voter loves the movie, he probably loved Allan! I don’t think it’s possible — truly, we can’t even predict Cera! — and it’s definitely a long shot even if it were possible, but wouldn’t it be so Allan if we went through the whole awards season without even giving him a second thought and then he winds up as a nominee? Who is one of your absolutely no-shot dark horses to consider in the category?

joyceeng: If Cera somehow gets in, we obviously need a Best Original Song nom for “Better Place” so we can get more Allans at the Oscars. Did Greta Gerwig manifest *NSYNC‘s reunion?! Her mind! I would love to see a nom for Milo Machado Graner, whose incredible performance in “Anatomy of a Fall” belies his age, but as I’ve said before, I see a lotta “breakthrough” noms for him in the future in lieu of supporting. Plus, the Oscars are not as kind to younger men. Not to get too ahead of ourselves, but like you said, RDJ is the favorite to win and I have him in first as well. He’s got a lotta things going for him. If it’s not him, who will it be? De Niro is second in the odds and this would give him a third Oscar. Ruffalo and Gosling are going for their firsts for primarily comedic performances, the latter in an outright comedy. There also haven’t been sweepers the last two seasons even though it looked like Ke Huy Quan would be one last year.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Are we in for another wild Best Supporting Actress race?

Christopher Rosen: It would be hard to imagine a sweeper this year too. I think Downey (SAG), Gosling (Globes), and Ruffalo (BAFTA) could all win precursor awards — the kind of chaos that would make Oscar night pretty darn fun. So I’ll stick with RDJ for now — and assuming (big assumption) the SAG strike is over by January, he’ll become a popular figure on the campaign trail at the exact right moment. But it’s really a shame that it’s likely three of these four guys will lose in the end — when I might pick each of them over this category’s winners in the last three years. I’ll let you have the last word here, Joyce. Anything else we’re missing on the supporting actor front?

joyceeng: While I’m always in favor of split races, I can picture RDJ sweeping, a la Brad Pitt, you know? Since the last spot is ostensibly open at this point, I would also support a LaKeith Stanfield-esque shocker nom here. No idea who that would even be, but I love chaos magic.

PREDICTthe 2024 Oscar nominees by Jan. 23

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

Best of GoldDerby

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.