Oscar Experts Typing: How big of a blow is Charles Melton’s BAFTA longlist snub?
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Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Supporting Actor, which got a new twist with Friday’s BAFTA longlists.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s the Friday before an awards-palooza weekend and we’re typing about what has become, at least to me, a very intriguing Best Supporting Actor race. Earlier this morning, the BAFTA longlists were released and sent a mild disturbance through Film Twitter. While presumed future nominees like Ryan Gosling, Robert Downey Jr., Robert De Niro and Mark Ruffalo made the cut in the Best Supporting Actor field, online favorites Charles Melton and Willem Dafoe did not. Does that spell trouble in River City or is it merely a case of BAFTA being BAFTA? Last year, eventual Oscar nominees Brian Tyree Henry and Judd Hirsch missed the BAFTA longlist as well, and those interested in making comparisons between Henry and Melton and Hirsch and Dafoe could probably do so. In the case of Melton — whom I’ve had in at the Oscars since he popped with critics’ groups and won over the room at the Gotham Awards — it seems like a “movie issue” more than an actor one. “May December” only appeared twice on the BAFTA longlists, for Best Original Screenplay and Julianne Moore in Best Supporting Actress. It’s possible the tricky tones of Todd Haynes’ excellent film just didn’t land with the group. Dafoe’s omission is slightly more concerning, if only because “Poor Things” did so well (14 overall mentions) and his work as the “heart and soul” of the film feels like the kind that could’ve maybe even won at the BAFTA Awards. But I can’t say I’m totally surprised Dafoe missed — and I don’t know that it would even matter to his eventual Oscar nomination were it to happen — because I’ve recently switched teams from him to a young actor who did make the longlist and appears headed toward greater things this month: Dominic Sessa. After critics glommed onto Melton as the “cool young actor of the season,” Sessa was mostly relegated to breakthrough awards. But “The Holdovers” has remained one of the most beloved films of the entire season, he’s basically a co-lead, and… well, doesn’t it seem like he’ll hit at the Screen Actors Guild Awards next week, then land among the BAFTA nominees as well before scoring that eventual Oscar nomination? That’s the scenario I’ve now played out in my reactionary brain, but whether I remain convinced of that outcome is unclear. Joyce, there is obviously room for both Melton and Sessa to score nominations alongside Downey, Gosling, and Ruffalo — but do you think that will happen, or do Dafoe and De Niro (who, to be clear, hasn’t missed a single thing this year) prevent the young guys from crashing this party?
joyceeng: I wouldn’t have a predicted a Melton snub at BAFTA, but I’m not surprised by “May December’s” underperformance. While BAFTA members have access to the movie, Netflix does not have international distribution rights, so the film wasn’t unleashed to the masses like it was here. That would’ve helped build buzz and increase visibility for a fringe contender like “May December” that most people didn’t have predicted in a bunch of top categories even two months ago. I agree the Brits also probably didn’t vibe with the tone (on the flip side, “Saltburn” is such a BAFTA film that could fall flat with the Oscars like past BAFTA faves “House of Gucci” and “Nocturnal Animals”). Melton’s snub means he wasn’t in the top seven in the popular vote and — assuming he was top 15 — he wasn’t one of three jury picks from spots eight through 15. Rough. I doubt many people expected Annette Bening and not Natalie Portman to be the second Netflix leading lady after Carey Mulligan to make the Best Actress longlist, but “Nyad” is a down-the-middle inspo film and was released on Netflix in the U.K. in November, so she was arguably top seven. I’ve never had Melton in my Oscar lineup, so I guess this is good news for me? Not that I want him to miss (Second Reggie 4eva!), but I was always wary of him being more of a critics thing and Film Twitter thing than an industry thing, especially with “May December” not being a top player. I don’t think he’s out of it, but it’s obviously bad and a SAG nom will be vital next week. If you think he’s fighting for the final spot with Dafoe and Sessa, then BAFTA giveth and taketh away since one didn’t make it and the other did. Dafoe and Sessa are also in stronger films, and the former has an edge over the young’uns as a veteran and past nominee. Melton’s BAFTA miss also makes it harder to imagine that both he and Sessa would make it into a category that favors old dudes. But today was a big win for Sessa, who, like you said, has been exiled to breakthrough nominations (hardly any wins either) by critics in their respective awards and was snubbed by the Golden Globes. Not great for momentum-building, but those are also not industry. BAFTA is industry and this is the first sign that the industry is here for him. Most people are not predicting this, but what if Sessa makes SAG and Melton doesn’t?
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Christopher Rosen: At this point, I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if Melton missed at SAG. But I have both him and Sessa there in my picks — along with Downey, Gosling, and Ruffalo. I guess the case I’d make for Melton at SAG is that “May December” feels pitched directly toward actors, it’s been on Netflix for weeks, and there does seem to be a real enthusiasm for Melton from his fellow performers. (Purely anecdotal, but at the New York Film Critics Circle dinner this week, he was feted by Lucas Hedges, who called him “Melton” and was just genuinely happy for his buddy. Melton was also a big favorite among attendees at the Gotham Awards, where he won against an expected Oscar winner in Da’Vine Joy Randolph.) But if he were to miss with SAG — where Portman is a strong contender and Moore feels like a lock for a nomination — then that might be good night the lights for my favorite “Riverdale” star this side of Camila Mendes (justice for “Do Revenge”). Let me play this scenario out for you and get your take: Downey, Gosling, and Ruffalo are basically on everyone’s lists, and Sessa, despite missing some potential nominations, has the advantage of being in the year’s most easily watchable movie and a top Best Picture alternate for voters not feeling the Barbenheimer buzz. If those four make the Oscar cut — and Melton ends up as this year’s Keke Palmer — does that final Best Supporting Actor spot go to Dafoe or De Niro?
joyceeng: Why do I feel like you’re trying to get me to cosign a De Niro snub that you’ve been trying to manifest for months? I know you’re low on him, and sure, he can miss since I don’t think he’s higher than fourth, but at this moment, he’s hit everything that matters, while Dafoe, Melton and Sessa have shown weaknesses, so I’d keep him. I’ve always had Dafoe in as a coattail nom, like Jesse Plemons in “The Power of the Dog,” but Plemons made the BAFTA longlist and was ultimately nominated there. So the BAFTA exclusion is suboptimal, especially since “Poor Things” did so well. Had Dafoe made it, “Poor Things” would’ve joined Barbenheimer and “Killers of the Flower Moon” with 15 mentions. Meanwhile, “Killers” did get an additional acting mention for Cara Jade Myers (deserved!). We’ve been talking about the same people, but what if someone else surprises? “American Fiction” was never going to do well at BAFTA, so I don’t consider Sterling K. Brown a snub, but he could definitely hit SAG and go from there. “All of Us Strangers” prospered on home turf as expected with Jamie Bell and Paul Mescal showing up, but they’re both very much long shots at the Oscars for a film that’s now staring down a goose egg with “Barbie” being punted to Best Adapted Screenplay by the writing branch.
Christopher Rosen: Why do I feel like you’re trying to get me to endorse a shocking nomination for “Saltburn” standout Jacob Elordi? If I must, however, I must. Like you mentioned earlier, “Saltburn” did really well with the longlist — not that its performance was remotely surprising. I could definitely see Elordi making the nomination cut at BAFTA with his magnetic performance. (For what it’s worth, I had already put “Saltburn” in for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars with “Barbie” in adapted now, and feel even better about that choice today.) As for De Niro versus Dafoe, I’m da dummy who thought De Niro might miss, but now I’m actually pushing you to move off Dafoe finally. De Niro feels pretty set in that fourth spot and it would be a very deserved nomination since he absolutely rules in the movie. I guess let’s leave this chat with your gut feeling on the top of the race: most everyone expects it to come down to Downey vs. Gosling. Who do you think takes the BAFTA?
joyceeng: I’m not touching anything until SAG noms because someone’s gotta provide some stability to balance out your chaos. My lineup of RDJ, Gosling, Ruffalo, De Niro and Dafoe is super boring, I know, but I can totally see Oscar voters defaulting to it if there’s not enough juice behind Sessa, Melton or any other dark horse to overtake one of them. Melton could also be the classic Globe and SAG snubbee in a weak film. There’s usually one every year. As for the BAFTA winner, I’d lean RDJ right now, but that also depends on noms, though I expect “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” to dominate. BAFTA mixed it up last year by crowning Barry Keoghan instead of season sweeper Ke Huy Quan, whom we all knew would win the Oscar anyway, so maybe they’ll go their own way again.
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