Oscar Experts Typing: Assessing the top-heavy Best Actor field

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·10 min read
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Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we tackle Best Actor, which is looking a lot stronger than last year’s race.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday, it’s fall, and it’s time for us to look at the Best Actor race. After last year’s – shall we say – undercooked crop of contenders, this year’s list of possibilities for lead actor runs relatively deep. Out front for now is Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer” — we both have him in first, mostly as a default but also, to me, he would be quite a deserving winner. I’ve long held the opinion that if “Oppenheimer” were the same movie with the same exact lead performance but it was Daniel Day-Lewis in the part, this would be one of our slam-dunk categories of the year. But because Murphy is more of a journeyman actor rarely afforded the chance to play a lead role in a major film, the collective punditry has some Meryl Streep voice ~doubts~ about his chances to go all the way. Another popular choice — at least according to our odds — is Leonardo DiCaprio for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” I’ve gone on record here in this column that I think talk about “Flower Moon” representing DiCaprio’s best career performance is comically overblown. No offense or disrespect to his work, but it’s not even among his best three Martin Scorsese performances — at least to me. (“The Departed,” “The Wolf of Wall Street,” and “The Aviator” in case you were wondering.) But just because it’s not Leo’s best doesn’t mean he isn’t a formidable factor in this race — particularly because we all expect “Flower Moon” to be one of the year’s top overall movies. To fill out the rest of my ballot, I’ve got three beloved veterans, each of whom is searching for their first Best Actor nomination. “The Holdovers” was a festival hit — particularly among those viewers over the age of 55 — so Paul Giamatti feels like a safe bet, even if the academy ignored him for “Sideways.” Pundits were penciling in Colman Domingo for his first taste of Oscar glory last year when “Rustin” was a potential 2022 release — and nothing about his performance or the movie itself has disabused me from the notion that he’ll make the final cut in 2024. I’ve also got Jeffrey Wright in here for “American Fiction,” the Toronto Audience Award winner that left most TIFF attendees on cloud nine. Wright is never bad, has never been nominated, and with the right film and campaign, it feels like he could be one of the year’s best stories. But because I have those five guys — four of whom are also fronting movies I have predicted in Best Picture; only “Rustin” failed to make my top 10 — I’ve left out one of the big ones: Bradley Cooper for “Maestro.” We joked about this with our voices this week, but once we get to see “Maestro” at the New York Film Festival on Monday, I’m sure I’ll have Cooper winning Best Actor. But if I make the predictable move while blinded by recency bias — as is my modus operandi — who should I drop out? I’m sure you have some ideas.

joyceeng: You’re not going to be able to move “Maestro” into first place everywhere fast enough on Monday night. Like most people, I have the top three of Murphy, DiCaprio and Cooper. I’m not sure about Murphy winning either — though I would love for him to — but it has nothing to do with his status. He’s not an A-lister, but he’s not a journeyman actor since he’s been an established, successful, famous actor in big movies and a huge TV show with a devoted fan base for two decades. “Oppenheimer” is his first lead role in a massive studio film and just made him More Famous (the irony, of course, is that he famously does not care about being famous). I can see him not winning in the same way Colin Farrell winning for “The Banshees of Inisherin” always felt like a pipe dream to me last year. And not because they’re both Irish. They gave incredible performances, but they’re not overtly flashy or baity in the way that voters typically like in this category. However, the difference is that “Oppenheimer” was a smash and could be the Best Picture winner, so that might be enough to boost Murphy across the line. At this point, he’s the safest for the nomination since he’s the only top contender whose film is out. I think Leo will get in, but I, too, don’t count this as his best performance ever and I don’t think this will bring him No. 2, but I wouldn’t have a problem if it did. How many people have had BCoop penciled in for the win since “Maestro” was announced? I think he can make it, but his win chances depend on the reception to “Maestro.” Five years ago next week, loads of people (including you, I’m sure) thought he had Best Actor in the bag for “A Star Is Born,” but there was ultimately no passion for it. I have Giamatti in for the Dad appeal of “The Holdovers,” the TIFF runner-up that feels like it’s hovering around the top five in Best Picture. I dropped Domingo for Wright, which I don’t feel great about, especially since MGM has had a lotta trouble getting acting nominations the past few years. But Wright is such a respected veteran and someone who feels like should have an Oscar nomination that I can see it happening. At the same time, if you compare his and Domingo’s roles on paper, you’d say Domingo would get in no question. I took him out for now because “American Fiction” feels stronger than “Rustin.” This is, obviously, subject to change after both films come out. Maybe I’ll have both in like you and dump someone else. In seventh place in the odds is Andrew Scott, whom I think will get a lot of Film Twitter and critics love for “All of Us Strangers” but might just miss in the end. I’m shocked you, the No. 1 “Saltburn” stan, would freeze out Barry Keoghan like this.

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Christopher Rosen: “Saltburn” is the goods, but I would be pretty surprised if Keoghan got in there. Last year proved he’s a guy people in the industry really love — I think we could make a strong case he was maybe the runner-up to Ke Huy Quan — and he’s even better in this one. Plus, he goes for it in a way that will have people calling him “brave” and “fearless” once “Saltburn” hits a wider audience. But the movie is not going to be for everyone and Keoghan’s character is complicated. If I had to make a comp, this feels like how Matt Damon broke out with an Oscar nomination for “Good Will Hunting” and was the guy everyone loved to root for, but then he missed a nomination for “The Talented Mr. Ripley” when he went against that type. It’s not perfect — Keoghan is probably better known for playing weirdos and sickos than the good-hearted soft boy he embodied in “Banshees” — but I do wonder if the Best Actor category could support him and Leo’s Ernest Burkhart, particularly when “Saltburn” feels like a fringe Best Picture contender. You mentioned Scott already; that’s a performance we both enjoyed and both expect to see rewarded with critics’ groups’ prizes and some Spirit Awards love. Counting Keoghan, that’s eight guys for five spots — and we haven’t even mentioned Joaquin Phoenix for “Napoleon,” Teo Yoo for “Past Lives,” Koji Yakusho for “Perfect Days,” Nicolas Cage for “Dream Scenario,” Gael Garcia Bernal for “Cassandro,” Jamie Foxx for “The Burial,” and our favorite comedy actor, Damon for “Air” (competing at the Golden Globes in the musical/comedy categories). Do you envision a scenario where any of those dark horses ascend to the top five this season, or will this remain a top-heavy race where six actors vie for for the final five?

joyceeng: Well, it’s just way too early to say, but right now the top six feels ahead of the field and I would not be surprised at all if the final five comes from those six. A wild swing from last season when the struggle was real to fill out the fifth spot. Scott would be this season’s Paul Mescal, but he might not make it because of the level of competition. The other reason I feel uneasy about dumping Domingo is that there are usually several acting nominees who are not in Best Picture nominees — there were eight last season and 10 the prior one, including, #neverforget, the entire Best Actress lineup — and let me tell you: I have a lotta actors predicted from my projected Best Picture nominees — 18 to be exact. I do not have “Rustin” in my top 10, so part of me feels like I should have Domingo just to have more peeps from non-Best Picture nominees. I know, it’s stupid logic, and obviously there could be performers from non-Best Picture nominees who could get in whom we’re not even talking about right now. Of course, Domingo and “Rustin” could get in, so this point is moot. The last time every Best Actor nominee hailed from a Best Picture nominee was 10 years ago in another race that featured Leo in a Marty pic, the lead of an Alexander Payne film and a movie that starred Cooper. Are they going to match again?

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Christopher Rosen: I don’t think it’s out of the question — particularly because “Rustin” could end up landing one of the final spots anyway. This year feels strong and top-heavy: Over in Best Actress, I have all five of my predicted nominees coming from Best Picture nominees (sorry to Annette Bening). Maybe that’s just the way it is in 2024? I guess we’ll find out. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go start thinking about who to drop for Cooper — maybe Leo? Fun times. I’ll let you have the last word until next week.

joyceeng: My prediction for your prediction is that you will abandon Leo since you once said to me, in peak Chris chaos mode, “I think Leo might not get in.” But I also predict you’ll reinstate him in 10 to 14 days.

PREDICTthe 2024 Oscar nominees by Jan. 23

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