Oscar Experts predict ’20 Days in Mariupol’ will win Best Documentary Feature

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Having trouble predicting what will win Best Documentary Feature at the 2024 Academy Awards? Let’s consult Gold Derby’s Oscar Experts! These savvy prognosticators from major media outlets have chimed in with their first round of predictions, and they say the trophy will go to “20 Days in Mariupol.” The other four Academy Award nominees are “Four Daughters,” “The Eternal Memory,” “Bobi Wine: The People’s President” and “To Kill a Tiger.”

As of this writing, a leading 19 out of our 23 Oscar Experts are predicting a victory for “20 Days in Mariupol”: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Erik Davis (Fandango), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Matt Neglia (Next Best Picture), Michael Musto (Queerty), Peter Travers (ABC), Ray Richmond (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox), Susan King (Gold Derby), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Gold Derby), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby) and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV).

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This documentary depicts the 20 days that filmmaker Mstyslav Chernov spent in war-battered Mariupol after Vladimir Putin began Russian’s invasion into Ukraine. “20 Days in Mariupol” recently won back-to-back industry prizes when it claimed victory at the Directors Guild of America Awards and BAFTA Awards.

SEE Oscar nominations: How did your favorite films fare?

Two Oscarologists, Andrea Mandell (People Magazine) and Brian Truitt (USA Today), are going with “Four Daughters” in Best Documentary Feature. Following the disappearance of two daughters of a Tunisian mother, the film casts professional actresses as a way to help illustrate the real-life losses.

The remaining two awards pundits instead believe “The Eternal Memory” will prevail: Anne Thompson (Indiewire) and Claudia Puig (KPCC). The nominated film tells the story of the unique relationship between Chilean journalist Augusto Góngora and Chilean actress Paulina Urrutia.

Currently at Gold Derby, none of our Experts are predicting a win for the other two Best Documentary Feature nominees: “Bobi Wine: The People’s President,” a political movie following the presidential campaign of Ugandian singer Bobi Wine, and “To Kill a Tiger,” which depicts an Indian family seeking justice after their teenage daughter is sexually attacked. However, many more awards pundits will soon be making or updating their own Oscar predictions, so that could change in the coming weeks.

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