‘Oppenheimer’ maintains lead over ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ in Oscar odds for Best Picture

Daniel Montgomery
·3 min read
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When “Oppenheimer” opened over the summer to huge box office numbers it rose to the top of our Oscar odds for Best Picture, replacing “Killers of the Flower Moon” in the number-one spot. Would it maintain that lead as the season progressed, especially with the theatrical opening of “Flower Moon” in October? As of this writing, the answer is yes. Make or update your own Oscar forecasts here in our predictions center.

Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, Christopher Nolan‘s biographical drama about atomic scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer gets leading odds of 7/1. Betting on it to win are 13 of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets. Compare that to “Flower Moon,” which is backed by four Experts. But this isn’t just a two-way race. Another three Experts are predicting Venice Film Festival sensation “Poor Things.” Three are predicting Toronto International Film Festival winner “American Fiction.” And one says critically acclaimed blockbuster “Barbie” will take the cake.

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But despite opening with similar critical acclaim, “Flower Moon” hasn’t reclaimed the top spot. That might partly be due to box office. A 200-minute drama about crimes against indigenous Americans was never going to do, say, “Barbie” numbers, and it can’t be judged as an awards contender by the fact that it’s not going to make a billion dollars at the box office. But “Oppenheimer” did make almost a billion dollars at the box office. That was a tremendous feat for a biopic, which might be hard to resist for voters who’ll find hope in a film that can draw in paying audiences even without the benefit of established intellectual property. And the “Barbenheimer” media phenomenon ended up helping both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” generating enthusiasm for the cinema experience more than anything since the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s not to say this Oscar season is all wrapped up, though. Being out front when it’s still early is always a precarious position to be in. At this stage of the race a couple of years ago, remember that “CODA” was hardly on anyone’s Oscar radar as a potential Best Picture winner. This year, who knows? Maybe that’s the aforementioned “American Fiction,” or “Past Lives,” or the as-yet unseen “The Color Purple.” We’ve still got a long way to go. Most of the story of this Oscar season has yet to be written.

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Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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