From 'Oppenheimer' to 'Barbie,' 'Poor Things' to 'The Holdovers' — our 2024 Oscar picks

A year ago, who would have ever guessed that a movie about 65-year-old, 12-inch fashion doll made out of plastic and a three-hour-long, historical biopic about the “father of the atomic bomb” would be the toast of Tinseltown?

For 2023, it was a very good year for film. In addition to the “Barbenheimer” box-office phenomenon, you have the smart, socially relevant (and bitingly funny) “American Fiction,” another standout biopic “Maestro” (this time about American composer Leonard Bernstein), an absolutely original, outrageous take on Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein” with “Poor Things,” a feelgood throwback to great ‘70s, character-driven storytelling in “The Holdovers” and the riveting, cinematic splendor of the historic shocker “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Plus, a series of challenging foreign (and indie) films worth their weight in celluloid are also in contention for Oscar gold this year.

And if that wasn’t enough, we had a great Godzilla movie in 2013. Where “Tora! Tora! Tora!” ends, “Godzilla Minus One” begins with a great story, great human character development, great-looking special effects. And, Hollywood take note. It cost less than $15 million to make the best monster movie, the best antiwar movie, the best PTSD movie in ages and it received a well-deserved nomination for an Academy Award for best special effects. But, enough of me blowing a blast of hot air. — Craig S. Semon

Far more than in most recent years, 2023 was a highly exciting time for movies. Whether or not it was a highly competitive year for claiming the Oscar statuettes Sunday remains to be seen.

It looks like "Oppenheimer," British director Christopher Nolan's mesmerizing take on J. Robert Oppenheimer, who was called "the father of the atomic bomb,"  has emerged as the clear favorite in a strong field with 13 Academy Award nominations including for best picture and best director.

It's hard to disagree. "Oppenheimer," sometimes in long, haunting sequences such as the build up to the first test of the bomb, or else using split screens alternating between color and black and white, is compelling to watch even as it tells a complicated story of a complicated person and persons. Cillian Murphy totally inhabits the very human physicist. A huge cast of distinguished actors often show up in relatively minor but important roles and leave their mark. The soundtrack pulsates.

However, there will be other fine films staking their claim.

As 2023 started to unfold there was keen anticipation of a number of movies. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" opened on the same day, and "Barbenheimer" became a phenomenon. We looked forward to Martin Scorsese's drama "Killers of the Flower Moon," Ridley Scott's "Napoleon,"  "Maestro" (Bradley Cooper playing Leonard Bernstein), and "The Color Purple" (2023 version). Some fared better than others. "Napoleon" met Waterloo early. "Killers of the Flowers Moon" was a bigger potential favorite than "Oppenheimer" at one point, but although it has received plenty of recognition it has inexplicably faded, at least so far, from the big awards picture. Scenes from the "The Holdovers," set at a New England all-boys prep school during a Christmas break circa 1969-70, were shot around here, creating local interest, and the film got great reviews and then some big nominations. "The Holdovers" now seems likely to pick up a couple of major awards and could even be a dark horse for Best Picture. All of a sudden there was also wide interest in, as well as some controversy, about the Frankensteinian "Poor Things" which details the adventures of a young woman (played by Emma Stone) brought back to life by an unorthodox scientist. Then there was controversy surrounding "Barbie" when the Academy Award nominations were announced. Although the film was nominated for best picture, Greta Gerwig was snubbed as director and Margot Robbie left out of the best actress category.

On a related note,  Helen Mirren recently asked, "Do you remember who won best film of the year before last?” For the record, it was "CODA." Still, it's a good point because so many Oscar winners over the last couple of decades were films one not only can't remember but probably never actually saw. Who, after all, really does remember "CODA"? Or "The Shape of Water"?

This year's Oscars, however, could well be different when we look back at them a couple of years from now.

These predictions are purely based on who looks like winning based on the awards season so far, plus bookmaker odds, gossip and other not-so-aesthetic tools. They do not necessarily reflect thoughts on who should win on merit...although in many cases there is alignment. This exercise is also meant to be a bit of fun. Feel free to disagree. — Richard Duckett

Without further ado, here are our predictions for the 96th Academy Awards.

Best supporting actress. Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"; Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"; America Ferrera, "Barbie"; Jodie Foster, "Nyad"; Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers."

CS: Wow, what a category. You have the incomparable Jodie Foster in a film no one has seen, let alone heard of around here; a stellar performance by Danielle Brooks in a film that was perfect the first time around (and left no need for a new one, especially a musical version); the always empathic Emily Blunt who would have made a great Sue Storm opposite her Reed Richards’ ripe hubby John Krasinski in the latest reboot of  “The Fantastic Four”; and America Ferrera, who delivers a stunning, jaw-dropping monologue about womanhood that’s up there with George C. Scott’s blood and guts rallying of the troops in “Patton” (no kidding!). All of them are Oscar worthy but the winner is going to be Da’Vine Joy Randolph for her unglamorous, emotionally complex and totally believable role as a hard-working and heartbroken cafeteria worker at an all-boys boarding school in “The Holdovers,” a movie which was filmed, in part, in Worcester (although Randolph has no Worcester scenes, she was shot plenty at the St. Mark’s School in Southborough).

RD: The winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers." Randolph, who plays the prep school's head cook who just lost a son in the Vietnam War, has been winning in this category at almost all of the previous awards events. Her acceptance appearances have also been memorable. Blunt wasn't a weak link as Oppenheimer's wife, but a case could have been made for nominating Florence Pugh in this category instead as Oppenheimer's tragic long-time lover.

Best supporting actor. Sterling K. Brown, "American Fiction"; Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"; Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"; Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"; Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things."

RD: The winner: Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer." Downey's transformation into the embittered Lewis Strauss, chairman of the United States Atomic Energy Commission who seeks to revoke Oppenheimer's security clearance, is remarkable. There could be some sentiment for De Niro and Gosling for differing reasons, but it seems as if they are distant contenders.

CS: Mark my words. Someone who has a name that begins with “R” is definitely going to win in this category. And Sterling K. Brown, who is the only actor who doesn’t have a name that begins with “R” here, also delivered a knockout performance. Mark Ruffalo is great playing a scoundrel who thinks he’s taking advantage of the seemingly aloof, sexually naïve but always evolving Emma Stone in “Poor Thing” and Ryan Gosling is “Kenough” enough in “Barbie” when it comes to doing everything a supporting actor is supposed to do: Hit all the right notes, flex his well-chiseled abs and acting muscles and steal every scene he’s in. But, it’s going to come down to the two Roberts. In “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Robert De Niro — who has become a punchline of late — delivers his best role in 30 years with his wolf in sheep’s clothing William Hale, a prominent pillar of society responsible for orchestrating the genocide of the Osage Nation. But Oscar is going home with another Robert, former Brat Packer-turned-A-list actor Robert Downey Jr. In “Oppenheimer,” a film loaded with great Oscar caliber supporting performances (including Matt Damon as Gen. Leslie Groves and an unrecognizable Gary Oldman as President Harry S. Truman, for starters). Downey’s flawless portrayal of Rear Admiral Lewis Strauss is a performance that is going to be studied by acting students for years to come. Performed with layers of complexity and understated nuisance, Downey’s subtle gestures and quiet acts of betrayal speak volumes here. On top of that, Hollywood loves a comeback story and comeback stories don’t get any better than Downey’s. You don’t have to be Pepper Potts to know Iron Man’s bringing home Oscar gold is a lock. ‘Nuff said.

Best actress. The nominees: Annette Bening, "Nyad"; Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"; Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"; Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"; Emma Stone, "Poor Things."

CS: It’s hard to say who robbed Margot Robbie’s best actress nom from her because everyone in this category is worthy of an Oscar. We have Annette Bening in that movie with Jodie Foster that nobody around here has seen or heard of; Sandra Huller, who is spectacular in “Anatomy of a Fall”; Carey Mulligan, who is superb playing the supportive and suffering spouse to Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro”; and Emma Stone who delivers an audacious and brave performance in “Poor Things.” But when all is said and done, it will be Lily Gladstone that will take home Oscar gold for being the heart, soul and knowing eye of the Osage Nation, bearing mute witness to the unresolved bloodshed of this dark, disgusting (and, until recently, never spoken of) chapter of American history. Another clear lock.

RD: The winner: Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon." Yet another close race, this time between The Stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. It looked early on as if Gladstone, who plays Mollie, an Osage woman amid the Osage Indian murders in Oklahoma, was the sure favorite for an acclaimed performance. But then Stone got lots of buzz when "Poor Things" was released in December. However, Gladstone won the Screen Actors Guild Award, usually a reliable indicator in this category.

Best actor. The nominees: Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"; Colman Domingo, "Rustin"; Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"; Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"; Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction."

RD: The winner: Cillian Murphy. Giamatti as the curmudgeonly teacher in "The Holdovers" is getting a late surge of support after Murphy had been the favorite almost as soon as "Oppenheimer" was released. But Murphy's performance is so watchable, nuanced and meticulous — right down to Oppenheimer's nicotine-stained fingers — that it is hard to imagine him not winning.

CS: Not only is Cillian Murphy da bomb, he’s the best bet for best actor. That is, unless Bradley Cooper, who is up for his fifth acting Oscar this year, orchestrates a surprising win, which he could. Then again, if Cooper and Murphy split the Academy’s vote, Paul Giamatti might go home with the gold to go with his celebratory takeout from In-N-Out Burger. But let’s not forget Colman Domingo and Jeffrey Wright, who could have easily won if it wasn’t for the “Oppenheimer” effect. Hollywood in its Cinemascope Technicolor heyday used to love sweeping, David Lean-inspired biopics that were less lean and mean than Christopher Nolan’s masterpiece “Oppenheimer.” And, with the weight of being “Death, the destroyer of world” on his bony shoulders, Murphy is pitch perfect as the “America’s Prometheus.” Unless Hollywood has a personal vendetta against the “Oppenheimer” star — like they noticeably did against Russell Crowe the year that “A Beautiful Mind” racked up all the major awards except for best actor (when the movie was a biopic and Crowe was on the screen for every second) — Murphy’s going to leave the competition in the dust.

Original screenplay. The nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall,” screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari; “The Holdovers,” written by David Hemingson; “May December,” screenplay by Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik; “Maestro,” written by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer; “Past Lives,” written by Celine Song.

CS: My gut tells me “Anatomy of a Fall,” but my heart wants “The Holdovers.” And the heart knows what the heart wants. And, if “The Holdovers” wins, not only will it be the film’s second major award of the night (Remember, I’m counting on Da'Vine Joy Randolph winning Best Supporting Actress earlier in the night), it is also an award for a screenplay in which close to two minutes of dialogue was filmed on the Worcester Common, aka The Heart of the Commonwealth. Now, that’s bragging rights.

RD: The winner: "The Holdovers" by David Hemingson. This looks like the closest of races between "The Holdovers" and "Anatomy of a Fall," with "May December" a possibility to step in and surprise. "Anatomy of a Fall" is a French film about a writer trying to prove her innocence after being accused of pushing her husband from a balcony during an argument. The hometown film prevails.

Adapted screenplay. The nominees: “American Fiction,” written for the screen by Cord Jefferson; “Barbie,” written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; “Oppenheimer,” written for the screen by Christopher Nolan; “Poor Things,” screenplay by Tony McNamara and “The Zone of Interest,” written by Jonathan Glazer.

RD: The winner: "Oppenheimer" by Christopher Nolan. "American Fiction," about a beleaguered African American professor and writer who angrily writes a satire of stereotypical "Black" books only for it to be taken seriously and win high praise, has emerged as a favorite in a tight contest with "Oppenheimer" and "Barbie." "American Fiction" even won a BAFTA on Nolan's home ground. It's timely, but so is the explosiveness of "Oppenheimer" (forgive me) with its complex nonlinear approach that works brilliantly and other screenplay writers will admire.

CS: Immediately after seeing “Barbie,” I declared it brilliant, adding that Greta Gerwig’s a shoo-in for best original screenplay. But it turns out I was wrong, dead wrong. Gerwig is a shoo-in for best adapted screenplay instead. Huh? As long as she wins, I’m fine with that. “Barbie” was the most original film of the year and arguably the decade. And, while the popular fashion doll is considered a licensed copyrighted entity (making “Barbie” eligible for best adapted screenplay, rather than best original screenplay), Gerwig and her writing partner came up with an “adapted” screenplay that is smart, funny, inspirational, inspired, intelligent and moving, without being schmaltzy and sentimental. The must-see “Barbie” movie is also brave, bold, speaks a lot of truth and is an instant classic. Gerwig had me instantly with her clever and funny spoof to “2001: A Space Odyssey” that opened up the film and she never let me go. The film, especially the screenplay, is truly a marvel to behold and deserves an Oscar proudly displayed in the living room of the Barbie Dreamhouse.

Best Original Song. The nominees: “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot,” music and lyrics by Diane Warren; “I’m Just Ken”from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt; “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony,” music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson; “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon,” music and lyrics by Scott George; and “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell.

CS: I will beat you all to the punch. Question: Who cares about best original song? Answer: Nobody, really. The reason why this category’s notable this year is because Billie Eilish is a shoo-in to win her second Oscar for Best Original Song in three years. In case you forgot, she also won for her James Bond theme to Daniel Craig’s 007 swansong “No Time To Die.” At a mere 22, this is amazing feat, to say the least.

RD: The winner: "What Was I Made For," from "Barbie." "Wahzhazhe" with the Osage Tribal Singers is the most interesting and different nominee. There's a good song trying to break out as John Batiste sings "It Never Went Away," and Becky G. tries to make the most of the refrain inside "The Fire Inside." Ryan Gosling with "I'm Just Ken" is funny although the song itself is bad, but a breathy and mournful sounding Billie Eilish will pull the heart strings of Hollywood with "What Was I Made For."

Best director. Nominations: Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest"; Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things"; Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"; Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"; Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall."

RD: The Winner: Christopher Nolan, whose previous films include "Inception," "Dunkirk" and "The Dark Knight," has never won for best director, which only increases the likelihood that he will this time. Mind you, it's amazing to note that Scorsese has only won once in his long and distinguished career, for "The Departed." The audaciousness of "Poor Things" may get Lanthimos a look.

CS: In any other year, this would be Scorsese’s award and rightfully so. But, in the year that Greta Gerwig should have been nominated for best director (and, arguably, won), Christopher Nolan delivered to the unsuspecting world an initially impossible to fathom epic that’s truly atomic.

Best Picture. The nominees: "American Fiction," "Anatomy of a Fall," "Barbie," "The Holdovers," "Killers of the Flower Moon," "Maestro," "Oppenheimer," "Past Lives," "Poor Things," "The Zone of Interest."

CS: And the winner is (rip envelop) “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.” Just messing with you. Every nomination in this category is well deserved. They are all great movies. But when the mushroom cloud clears, “Oppenheimer” is the one that will be left standing with Oscar gold in its hands. Then again, “Killers of the Flower Moon” is cunning enough to sneak in for the kill. Or, who knows, “The Holdovers” could jump into the driver’s seat during winter school break and take over.

RD: The Winner: "Oppenheimer." It's inevitable. As are wins in other categories not listed here such as best cinematography. "Poor Things" has late momentum and "The Holdovers" has admirers but it won't be enough in either case.

This article originally appeared on Telegram & Gazette: And the award goes to .... We make our predictions for the 96th Oscars