Opinion: Will ERCOT fail Texans this summer?

Three days after six power plants faltered in mid-May, prompting calls for Texans to turn up their thermostats and conserve energy, the Public Utility Commission chairman and the interim CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas – or ERCOT – insisted that Texans will not suffer power blackouts this summer.

That will take some luck.

Texas’ population and economy keep growing but generating capacity from traditional electricity sources does not. This summer, Texas natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydroelectric plants will provide less electricity than they did in 2010 even though the Texas economy has grown from $1.25 trillion in 2010 to $2 trilion in 2021. ERCOT has relied on growth in Texas’ nation-leading wind energy fleet and a growing solar power fleet to prop up our shaky grid. But there are limitations to wind and solar; if the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine, these sources can’t help in a crisis. Without cooler than normal weather, ERCOT will be short of power this summer.

Meanwhile, new traditional power plants aren’t being built for a simple reason: It’s more profitable not to build. Better for generating companies to wait for prices to spike and make a windfall than to increase supply and keep prices down. The result? Companies win, consumers lose.

Entering the week of May 9, every generator and commodities trader knew something that the public did not -- that more than 20,000 megawatts of generators were offline for maintenance. The approaching heat wave guaranteed them a money-making opportunity. Under ERCOT rules, generators would be able to charge higher prices than normal because there would fewer generators bidding into the market, hence less competition. Sure enough, on Friday the 13th, six generators, less than 1% of the fleet, went offline and the wholesale price jumped from $100 per megawatt hour to over $4,500 per megawatt hour—a 4,400% increase.

The entire structure of the market needs to be scrapped and redesigned to prevent this, but the PUC's May 10 contract with a consulting firm to “redesign” the market does not go far enough. And who will make the investments to build new generation?  Given that building a new gas-fired generation plant takes between 12 and 18 months with no supply chain issues, they should have started months ago to be ready for September 2023.

In establishing an independent power grid for Texas, unencumbered by pesky federal regulations, Gov. Abbott and former governors Perry and Bush followed the failed California market design too closely.  What has California done to reverse its path?  CAISO, the ERCOT counterpart in California, is contracting for new natural gas generators to help when the weather fails to provide enough wind and solar.

California’s second strategy -- drawing electricity from other states-- is failing because the expansive heat waves that led to blackouts across California also hit California’s neighbors. Connecting to neighboring states would take ERCOT years to accomplish, and one weak grid connecting to another weak grid is no solution.

Peter Lake, Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, center, during a press conference with Gov. Greg Abbott and representatives from the Texas Division of Emergency Management, ERCOT, in February, 2022.
Peter Lake, Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, center, during a press conference with Gov. Greg Abbott and representatives from the Texas Division of Emergency Management, ERCOT, in February, 2022.

Meanwhile, we're stuck with a broken grid in Texas -- and a hefty bill for bailing out the energy industry that failed us. The state will oversee the borrowing of billions in bonds to prop up the utilities and power generators, leaving consumers on the hook.

By any other definition, this is socialism. Texans will spend years paying it off while our elected officials continue raking in millions in campaign contributions from commodities traders and generating companies. Transparency is the hallmark of competitive markets, yet ERCOT hides behind legal smokescreens claiming that it is immune from lawsuits and cannot disclose “competitive” information from its market participants

On Friday, May 13, we were told to set our thermostats to 78 degrees as the temperature outside soared. Just when we needed it most, state electricity officials demanded that we pay more and use less.

Ed Hirs is the inaugural University of Houston Energy Fellow. He teaches energy economics in the Department of Economics.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Energy officials say the grid is fine. We shouldn't be so sure.