Ole Miss baseball vs. Oklahoma in College World Series finals: Here's our prediction
OMAHA, Neb. — For the first time, Ole Miss baseball is playing for a chance at a national championship.
The Rebels (40-23) begin their best-of-three College World Series championship series against Oklahoma (45-22) on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN). Both teams scorched their way to this point.
Oklahoma won its last five Big 12 series, swept the conference tournament, upset national seeds Florida and Virginia Tech in regionals and super regionals and went 3-0 in the College World Series to advance to the final. Ole Miss is 16-4 since May 1, including 8-1 in the NCAA Tournament. Over their nine postseason games, the Rebels are allowing just 2.2 runs per game.
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These teams are great reminders that championships often go to good teams that figure out how to be great at the right time. The Sooners are playing dominant baseball. The Rebels are playing dominant baseball. One will walk away as national champions.
Here is the Clarion Ledger's scouting report and prediction for the College World Series championship.
Ole Miss pitching vs. Oklahoma offense
A good gauge for all-around offensive success is a batting average above .300, an on-base percentage above .400 or a slugging percentage above .500. Oklahoma is doing that this postseason. In 10 NCAA Tournament games, the Sooners are batting .303 with a .404 on-base percentage and a .517 slugging percentage. Most crucially, Oklahoma is scoring eight runs per game.
A good gauge for a pitcher's all-around success is if he has an ERA below 3.00, a batting average against below .225 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio above 2.50. Ole Miss is doing that this postseason. In nine NCAA Tournament games, Rebels pitchers have a 2.11 ERA, a .177 batting average against and 5.8 strikeouts for ever walk.
Oklahoma is in this position because of its offense. Ole Miss is in this position because of its pitching. The Rebels likely won't be able to use ace Dylan DeLucia until Game 3, and even then he'll be on three days rest after throwing a complete game Thursday. Freshman Hunter Elliott has dominated the postseason, but he won't start until Game 2. Sophomore right-hander Jack Dougherty will instead make his first start since March, hoping to keep alive the hot streak of not allowing an earned run in 12 innings since the start of May.
Advantage: It's tempting to say Oklahoma has the edge with DeLucia out of the picture. But the way Ole Miss has pitched it lately, it's hard to go against the Rebels stepping up and shutting down the Sooners.
Oklahoma pitching vs. Ole Miss offense
Unlike Ole Miss, Oklahoma should have its full rotation at its disposal from Game 1. Sophomore Jake Bennett is on a week's rest before Saturday, freshman Cade Horton will be on six days rest before Sunday and sophomore David Sandlin would be on four days rest before Monday.
Oklahoma hasn't had nearly the starting pitching success this postseason Ole Miss has had, but a 3.62 starter ERA is nothing to scoff at. Especially when Horton and Sandlin are coming off star turns in wins against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, where they combined to throw 13 innings with three earned runs (2.08 ERA), 10 hits, two walks and 23 strikeouts.
Equally important, Ole Miss' offense hasn't been nearly as dominant as Oklahoma's. The Rebels are scoring 7.6 runs per game in the NCAA Tournament but are doing so while batting .282 and striking out 11.3 times vs. 4.9 walks per game.
Arkansas' left-handers had a ton of success against Ole Miss, especially with their breaking balls, which bodes well for the left-handed Bennett. But Oklahoma's bullpen is nowhere near as deep (4.75 NCAA Tournament ERA), meaning if the Rebels can keep things close early in games, they should have opportunities to pull away late.
Advantage: Ole Miss' bats are cold right now and Oklahoma's starters are peaking at the right time. On those facts alone, give the Sooners the advantage. But if Ole Miss can put together competitive at-bats and drive those starters' pitch counts up, the Rebels can swing the tide.
Prediction: Ole Miss wins in three games
These teams are too hot to expect a sweep. The left-handed Bennett has the advantage against Ole Miss' lefty-heavy lineup in Game 1 and Elliott wins the battle of freshman phenoms in Game 2. But in Game 3, with Ole Miss' bullpen well-rested and DeLucia likely coming back in a limited role, it's easier to trust the depths of the Rebels' pitching staff, even if Oklahoma's offense is as hot as it can be right now.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss baseball vs. Oklahoma: Our College World Series prediction
