Oklahoma Democrat Spikes in Gubernatorial Polls, Suggesting Unexpectedly Close Race Against GOP Incumbent

Sue Ogrocki/AP/Shutterstock; Dylan Hollingsworth/Bloomberg via Getty Joy Hofmeister, Kevin Stitt

Democrat Joy Hofmeister appears to have a shot at unseating Oklahoma's Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt in November, according to a slew of new polls that show her rapidly rising in popularity just weeks before the election.

Once considered a shoo-in for Stitt, the Oklahoma gubernatorial race is now a top battleground that's caught the nation's attention. In July, Hofmeister was averaging more than 16 points behind Stitt in polls; as of Tuesday morning, she's averaging only one point behind.

The state's superintendent of public education, Hofmeister was registered as a Republican until last year when she declared her candidacy for governor. She's argued that Stitt is too partisan to represent the needs of Oklahomans, painting herself as the unifying antidote to his far-right political crusade.

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"She is a unique Democratic candidate in that she is essentially a Republican centrist running on a moderate platform centered on issues like education," explains Matt Hindman, professor and chairman of political science at the University of Tulsa, noting that education is perhaps a bigger issue in Oklahoma than anywhere else in the nation.

"By most measures, Oklahoma ranks near the bottom of the country in K-12 education," Hindman tells PEOPLE. "Gov. Stitt supports a voucher program and a philosophy of privatization, whereas Hofmeister supports increasing public funding and increased teacher salaries for K-12 educators."

Stitt blames Hofmeister for the state's poor quality of education; Hofmeister asserts that she's the most qualified candidate to get schools back on track.

Sue Ogrocki/AP/Shutterstock Joy Hofmeister

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Hindman adds that Hofmeister's position on leaving abortion decisions to women and their doctors has also helped her case, because "even in a deeply Republican state like Oklahoma, the Republican Party's — and Gov. Stitt's — firm antiabortion stance makes many people uneasy." He points to how residents of Kansas, which borders Oklahoma, recently voted to uphold their right to abortion despite their generally conservative views, exemplifying the bipartisan popularity of reproductive rights right now.

While Stitt has previously vowed to "sign every piece of pro-life legislation" that reaches his desk — and followed through on that promise, implementing a ban in the state — his campaign website notably avoids highlighting his anti-choice beliefs, perhaps because he knows now that it's no longer a winning platform.

RELATED: Oklahoma Enacts Nation's Strictest Abortion Law, Banning the Procedure from Moment of Conception

Despite benefiting from a sudden shift in favorability, Hofmeister remains the underdog in Oklahoma's gubernatorial race. Even as election tracking site FiveThirtyEight acknowledges her promising poll numbers, its algorithm currently predicts that she only has a 10% chance of securing the win. That could, of course, change if her momentum continues at the rate it has been.

Even with added uncertainty in the race, Stitt's campaign team feels confident about where he stands.

"Kevin Stitt is going to win this race because Oklahomans know Kevin Stitt is fighting for them, cutting taxes, balancing the budget, and funding pay increases for every teacher," Stitt campaign manager Donelle Harder tells PEOPLE, "while his Democratic opponent supports tax increases and marches in lock-step with Joe Biden's liberal agenda that's threatening Oklahoma."

Hofmeister's campaign team could not immediately be reached for comment.

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