October 2023 box office preview: Taylor Swift will set new records as she dominates movie theaters

Edward Douglas
·10 min read
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After one of the worst months of 2023 at the box office, we might have found the true savior for the month of October in a pop singer. Taylor Swift‘s return to theaters is with a concert film based on her multi-billion North American tour. How much money do we think it’ll rake in? Read on for Gold Derby’s October 2023 box office preview.

“Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (AMC Theatrical Distribution – Oct. 13)

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It’s Taylor Swift’s world, and we’re just livin’ in it. That might be the biggest takeaway for the month, as “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” blasts into theaters after its surprise announcement at the end of August. Considering how quickly most of the stops on her U.S. tour sold out and the controversy it stirred up with ticket sales, it was no surprise when the filmed version of her L.A. show started selling tickets just as fast, racking up a record number of sales from theatrical chain-turned-distributor AMC. I’m sure we’ll have a lot more to say about this movie’s opening weekend (which reportedly is mostly sold out) and just about every week after that as it runs rampant with its limited four-week run (and only on weekends!) Expect an opening weekend close to $115 million or more as plenty of records get smashed.

The Exorcist: Believer
The Exorcist: Believer

“The Exorcist: Believer”   (Universal – Oct. 6)

Having already moved a week earlier to avoid Tay-Tay, the planned David Gordon Green-directed sequel trilogy to the original William Friedkin horror classic from the ’70s is kicking off Halloween month with a movie that hopes to scare up a younger generation as much as the original “The Exorcist” did 50 years ago. Starring Leslie Odom Jr., Ann Dowd and the returning Ellen Burstyn, Universal is hoping Green can do for this franchise what he did with the “Halloween” movies while bringing back Jamie Lee Curtis. This one will probably open north of $30 million but will lose its IMAX screens after a week, so expect a big second weekend drop unless it receives glowing reviews and word-of-mouth. Look for more about this in next week’s weekend preview.

SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums

Killers of the Flower Moon
Killers of the Flower Moon

“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Paramount/Apple – Oct. 20)

Filmmaker Martin Scorsese has the misfortune of returning with his first theatrical feature since “The Irishman” in 2019 — it was ultimately released on Netflix’s streaming service — going up against the second weekend of Swift’s concert film. Adapted from David Grann‘s non-fiction book, it stars Scorsese regular Leonardo DiCaprio as Ernest Burkhart, who travels to the Osage Nation in Oklahoma to work for his uncle “King” Dale, played by Scorsese’s other regular, Robert De Niro. Ernest ends up marrying an Osage woman named Mollie (played by Lily Gladstone), but as local Osage begin dying, an investigation is launched. The movie premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May, where it began to receive the type of buzz and rave reviews that will take Scorsese and his cast to Oscar night. This will also be Scorsese’s first movie ever to be released on IMAX screens, which should allow it to open with somewhere north of $25 million on its opening weekend.

Five Nights at Freddy's
Five Nights at Freddy's

“Five Nights at Freddy’s” (Universal – Oct. 27)

Universal’s second horror film of the month, this one based on a popular video game, might benefit from having an extra week after the release of the Swift movie, but also since it’s actually coming out on “Halloweekend.” (Look it up, it’s a thing.) This one involves a security guard at a shuttered Chuck E. Cheese-like pizza joint, who discovers that the establishment’s giant mascots may be possessed by the children who vanished there years earlier. Directed by Emma Tammi (“The Wind”), this one is scheduled to debut on Peacock day-and-date with it theatrical release (a la last year’s “Firestarter”), but it should still be good for $15 million or so due to its PG-13 rating, awareness of the video game, and proximity to Halloween.

“Freelance” (Relativity – Oct. 27)

“Taken” director Pierre Morel returns with this action-thriller starring John Cena as an ex-special forces operator who takes a job providing security for a journalist (Alison Brie) who is scheduled to interview a dictator as a military coup breaks out. Also starring Alice Eve and Christian Slater, this very much feels like the type of high-concept action movie we saw earlier this year with Gerard Butler‘s “Plane,” which opened with $10.3 million and made $32.1 million. It will be a good test to see if Cena’s become more popularity since joining the “Fast and Furious” franchise, but it probably will fall short, since it doesn’t look very good.

“Dicks The Musical” (A24 – Oct. 6 limited, nationwide Oct. 20)

One of the odder releases of the month is this raunchy R-rated musical directed by Larry Charles (“Borat,” “Seinfeld”), which won the Midnight Madness Audience Award when it premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival. It will get a few weekends of release in the bigger cities before going nationwide on Oct. 20, though seeing how poorly “Bottoms” performed, it doesn’t seem likely this can do much better.

“Soul Mates” (Faith Media Distribution – Oct. 20)

A movie that seems to have come from out of nowhere is this horror-thriller directed by Mark Gantt, starring Charlie Weber and Anne Ilonezeh as two strangers who find themselves thrown into a nightmarish maze-like “dating service” run by Neal McDonough‘s “Matchmaker.” Your guess is as good as mine on this one.

“Sight” (Briarcliff Entertainment – Oct. 27)

This is a low-key biopic starring Terry Chen as Dr. Ming Wang, a Chinese immigrant who becomes an eye surgeon who helped restore the sight of millions, co-starring Greg Kinnear and directed by Andrew Hyatt (“Full of Grace”). This seems like a movie getting a wide release without there being much interest in the subject, so don’t expect to see it in the Top 10 anytime this month. (Ironically, Hyatt also directed a movie called “The Blind,” which opened in the top 5 over the weekend.)

SEE Box office: All time domestic top-grossing movies

We’ll get to some limited releases in a second, but the month will end with an important awards movie that will expand wider in November.

“The Holdovers” (Focus Features – Oct. 27 limited, Nov. 10 wide)

Alexander Payne returns with this original comedy starring Paul Giamatti as an Antiquities teacher at an exclusive private high school who gets stuck on holiday watch over a troubled teen from a broken home (newcomer Dominic Sessa), only receiving some help from the woman who runs the cafeteria, played by Da’vine Joy Randoph (“Dolemite is My Name”). The movie is already receiving lots of Oscar buzz, especially for Giamatti and Randolph, so we’ll have to see whether audiences connect to it, as it slowly rolls out later this month.

The rest of the month’s limited releases, including many opening next week…

“Strange Way of Life” (Sony Classics – Oct 4)

Oscar-winning Spanish filmmaker Pedro Almodóvar premiered his 30-minute Western short starring Ethan Hawke and Pedro Pascal at Cannes back in May. It looks at the love affair between a sheriff and the father of a wanted outlaw, and it will get a theatrical release accompanied by Almodóvar’s “The Human Voice,” starring Tilda Swinton.

“Foe” (Amazon – Oct. 6)

“Lion” director Garth Davis returns with this drama adapted from Ian Reid‘s novel, starring Saoirse Ronan and Paul Mescal as a couple who have been farming on his family’s land, only to have their lives disrupted by an uninvited stranger (Aaron Pierre). It will have its World Premiere at the 61st New York Film Festival before hitting theaters.

“The Royal Hotel” (NEON – Oct. 6)

Filmmaker Kitty Green (“The Assistant”) reunites with that movie’s three-time Emmy-winning star, Julia Garner, as one of two American backpackers – the other one played by Jessica Hewick – who take a job at an Australian pub to make some money only to contend with a group of unruly locals.

“Joan Baez: I Am A Noise” (Magnolia – Oct. 6)

The legendary folk singer is profiled in this comprehensive documentary, directed by Miri Navasky, Maeve O’Boyle, and Karen O’Connor, which looks at all aspects of Baez’s life and career.

“Cat Person” (Rialto Pictures – Oct. 6)

Based on a New Yorker article, this drama directed by Susanna Fogel (“The Flight Attendant”) stars Emilia Jones (“CODA”) as a college sophomore, whose date with Robert (Nicholas Braun from “Succession”) doesn’t deliver on what she hoped. Geraldine Viswanathan (“Miracle Workers”) plays her best friend.

“When Evil Lurks” (IFC – Oct. 6)

This Spanish-language horror film from Argentine filmmaker Demián Rugna takes place in a remote village where two brothers find a man possessed by a demon, who they try to get rid of before he unleashes hell on earth.

SEE ‘Saw’ movies ranked worst to best

“She Came to Me” (Vertical  – Oct. 6)

Indie filmmaker Rebecca Miller returns with this multi-generational love story, starring Anne Hathaway, Peter Dinklage and Marisa Tomei.

“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon – Oct. 13)

Justine Triet‘s critically acclaimed drama, which won both the Palme d’Or AND the Palm Dog at Cannes back in May, stars Sandra Hüller – strongly thought to be a Best Actress nomination contender – as a woman whose husband falls to his death after a lovers spat, leaving her as the prime suspect of his murder.

“The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics – Oct. 20)

The latest film from Maryam Keshavarz – her second to win the Sundance Audience Award after 2011’s “Circumstance” – centers around a large Iranian-American family who have been keeping secrets that reunite an estranged mother and her daughter.

“After Death” (Angel Studios – Oct. 27)

As the title implies, this documentary, directed by Stephen Gray, explores what happens after one dies through interviews with doctors, scientists, authors, as well as near-death survivors.

We might as well look at some of the upcoming streaming releases that will be getting a short theatrical release, including …

“The Burial” (Amazon – Oct. 6)

Directed by Maggie Betts (“Novitiate”), this drama starring Jamie Foxx and Tommy Lee Jones, involves a dispute over a deal gone wrong when a large corporation reneges on buying a few of the funeral homes owned by the latter. This will get one week in limited release before streaming on Prime Video starting Oct. 13.

“NYAD” (Netflix – Oct. 20) 

Annette Bening stars in this drama directed by Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin (“Free Solo”) playing long-distance swimmer Diana Nyad, who well into her 60s decided to attempt a 103-mile swim from Cuba to Florida, despite the doubts of her lifelong friend, played by Jodi Foster. This will get a limited release and then be streaming on Nov. 3.

“The Killer” (Netflix – Oct. 27)

The latest from filmmaker David Fincher premiered at Venice earlier this month. It stars Michael Fassbender as an assassin who must go against his employers after a job goes horribly wrong. Also starring Tilda Swinton, this will stream on Netflix starting Nov. 10.

That’s it for this month. Remember to check back every Wednesday morning for a preview of the upcoming weekend with more details on the releases and their box office potential.

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