North Carolina basketball vs. Duke: Score prediction for Blue Devils-Tar Heels rivalry

If North Carolina basketball is going to be an NCAA Tournament selection, the Tar Heels will need to bring their best in the regular-season finale against rival Duke.

UNC (19-11, 11-8 ACC) remains on the wrong side of the bubble ahead of its matchup against the Blue Devils (22-8, 13-6) on Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) at the Smith Center.

The Tar Heels faltered down the stretch in Durham as Duke earned a 63-57 victory on Feb. 4 in Jon Scheyer’s first game as coach in the storied rivalry.

Here are some things to know and a score prediction ahead of Carolina’s latest game against Duke.

UNC, Duke 3-point shooting

Duke and UNC each shot under 40% at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but each squad has started to make strides from 3-point range.

The Tar Heels are 11-1 when they make at least eight 3-pointers, including a 10-0 mark when they knock down at least 34% of their shots from beyond the arc.

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With a 31.1% shooting percentage from distance, which ranks 327th in the nation according to KenPom.com, UNC has struggled to consistently find success from long range. But the Tar Heels have double-digit 3s in back-to-back games, draining 24 of 51 three-point attempts (47%).

Duke, which ranks 240th in 3-point shooting percentage, was shooting 44% from beyond the arc in the three games before its 2-for-19 showing against NC State.

Dereck Lively II vs. Armando Bacot

The matchup between UNC’s Armando Bacot and Duke’s Dereck Lively II will likely be a deciding factor. Bacot, who is averaging 16.5 points and 10.8 rebounds, had 14 points and 10 rebounds against the Blue Devils in February.

But Lively’s ability as a rim protector bothered the Tar Heels as the 7-foot-1 freshman picked up a season-high eight blocks and 14 rebounds. Lively has reached double figures as a scorer in two of the last three games.

Leaky Black to break record

Leaky Black is set to play his 153rd game as a Tar Heel, which breaks a tie with 2009 national champion Deon Thompson. UNC’s top defender is averaging a career high in points (7.4), rebounds (6.4) and steals (1.3) per game. He’s also shooting 33.8 percent from 3-point range, which leads the Tar Heels.

UNC vs. Duke score prediction

Duke 71, UNC 69: The Tar Heels are playing a lot better of late, but so are the Blue Devils. Since its controversial loss at Virginia, Duke has looked like a team capable of making some noise in the postseason. Despite their road struggles, the Blue Devils are finally healthy and have proved to be more consistent than UNC.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball score prediction vs. Duke: Tar Heels need NCAA boost