No sophomore slump: Season 2 is the sweet spot for supporting performers at the Emmys

Heading into the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards, a total of 30 supporting actors and actresses are nominated for their work on 11 different continuing series, all of which consist of between one and six seasons. When it comes to predicting the four winners, it helps to analyze their predecessors with emphasis on how long their shows had been running. Over the course of seven decades, TV academy voters have shown significant preference toward newer (but not too new) featured performances, and that is largely reflected in their current slate of nominations.

Whereas the luckiest lead actors typically win for brand new comedy or drama programs, supporting players usually fare a bit better immediately following their shows’ sophomore seasons. This type of victory accounts for 21.7% of all of those that have occurred within the four featured categories, with recent examples including Alex Borstein (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”), Julia Garner (“Ozark”), and Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”). Of the dozen performers who could soon strengthen that plurality, nine hail from the drama series “The White Lotus”: F. Murray Abraham, Jennifer Coolidge, Meghann Fahy, Sabrina Impacciatore, Michael Imperioli, Theo James, Aubrey Plaza, Will Sharpe, and Simona Tabasco. Rounding out that subset are comedic “Abbott Elementary” trio Janelle James, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Tyler James Williams.

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As one might expect, first season wins are the second most common type for supporting actors (18.1%), as evidenced by reigning champ Ralph. While there is no potential for a new dramatic example this year, the comedy categories could be covered by any combination of first-timers James Marsden (“Jury Duty”), Jessica Williams (“Shrinking”), and “The Bear” pair Ayo Edebiri and Ebon Moss-Bachrach. The third season group is the third largest at 15.9%, with the possible upcoming additions – Goldstein, Phil Dunster, Juno Temple, and Hannah Waddingham – all representing “Ted Lasso.”

Nicholas Braun, Matthew Macfadyen, Alan Ruck, Alexander Skarsgård, and J. Smith-Cameron are all currently nominated for the fourth season of “Succession,” as are Anthony Carrigan and Henry Winkler for “Barry.” As of now, wins of that kind constitute 15.0% of all supporting triumphs. Two of the remaining three present contenders – Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) and Borstein – are recognized for fifth season performances, while Rhea Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”) stands as the sole representative of a six-season (or longer) series. Respectively, 11.5% and 5.8% of past featured champs were honored for shows of similar length, while 12.0% were lauded even further along. The record for latest win is shared by “Saturday Night Live” season 42 cast members Alec Baldwin and Kate McKinnon, while the non-sketch distinction belongs to Milburn Stone of “Gunsmoke” (season 13).

A total of 14.1% of supporting Emmy wins have been for final seasons of series, and there could be one new example per category by the end of the next ceremony. Assuming “Ted Lasso” has reached its end, the list of such hopefuls consists of 13 names, including the five “Succession” performers plus Borstein, Carrigan, Winkler, and Seehorn. In this sense, neither gender has an advantage over the other, as there are equal amounts of past instances (16).

While it is probably true that Marsden and all nine “White Lotus” actors are finished playing their characters, they wouldn’t become part of the final season winners club, as was the case with “The Crown” cast mates Gillian Anderson and Tobias Menzies. Conversely, for the purposes of this series-based analysis, it doesn’t matter that Debicki, Skarsgård, and nearly every “White Lotus” nominee (save Coolidge) were not part of their shows’ original casts.

Since most of the latest second season supporting victors had previously won on their first outings, Coolidge and Ralph have the best shots at maintaining their subgroup’s dominant size, with the threat of Edebiri making the former a safer bet. On the male side, it’s actually best to count on a “Succession” actor (probably defending champ Macfadyen) while recognizing that the veteran funnymen will likely be overtaken by a newcomer (Marsden or Moss-Bachrach).

The winners of this year’s Best Supporting Actor and Actress Emmys will be revealed during the television academy’s 75th annual awards ceremony, airing Monday, January 15 on Fox.

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