‘Spider-Verse’ Swinging Ahead Of ‘Elemental’ After Game Of Chicken; ‘Flash’ Edging Out ‘No Hard Feelings’ – Saturday PM Box Office

UPDATED Saturday PM: As of tonight, according to industry estimates, Sony Animation’s fourth weekend of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is ahead of Disney/Pixar’s second weekend of Elemental, $19.4 million to $18.3 million. This is after a $7.5M Saturday for Spidey, +32% over Friday, and a $7.1M Saturday for Elemental, +27% over Friday.

Still at a 38% ease, that’s not too shabby for Elemental. The previous Pixar misfire, Onward, didn’t get a full chance at a theatrical life as movie theaters closed down to due to Covid; the pic stalled at $61M stateside and jettisoned onto Disney+. Good Dinosaur, another Pixar dud, had a Thanksgiving launch back in 2015 with a $39.1M 3-day, -61% second weekend of $15.3M, and final domestic take of $123M. Who knows, maybe Elemental goes farther, especially as it looks to get a boost over the July 4th frame. Gross by Sunday looks to be $65.3M. Tonight’s figures don’t come from Disney. Spider-Verse will land at $317.1M.

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As of this minute, and again Sunday could change the tables into Monday AM, Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash will take third from Sony’s R-rated Jennifer Lawrence comedy No Hard Feelings, at $15.1M in its second weekend to the latter’s $15M opening. Flash has the edge after an estimated $6M Saturday, +33% over Friday. No Hard Feelings did $4.8M, -26% against Friday/Thursday previews. Very good start here for the Jennifer Lawrence comedy, especially in this marketplace. In its older young woman tending to an even younger kid, it did look creepy — but not as creepy as 1981’s Private Lessons (remember that film?). It works because audiences are clearly getting the joke and the hijinks.

Flash‘s running total by EOD Sunday is expected to be $87.4M. Chew on this: despite the hammering Dwayne Johnson’s fall box office savior, Black Adam, took from the press, that movie’s first 10 days ($110.9M) are 27% ahead of The Flash. Black Adam‘s second weekend was also bigger at $27.4M, -59% to Flash‘s -73%. Was it wise to nix Black Adam 2? Flash‘s running total at 10 days is pacing 2% behind that of Green Lantern‘s ($88.9M). That DC bomb, which starred Ryan Reynolds, posted a second weekend of $18M, -66% (also better than Flash). Black Adam finaled at $168.1M, Green Lantern ended its gross at $116.6M.

Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts is fifth this frame with a $4.7M third Saturday, +48% from Friday, for a third weekend of $11.5M, -44% for a $122.8M running total by EOD Sunday.

Focus Features’ expansion of Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City is swell in sixth place, booked at 1,675 locations, with a $2.8M Saturday, -26% from Friday, and second weekend of $8.7M and running total by end of Sunday at $9.9M. The wide break of Asteroid City beats the both the fourth weekend of Anderson’s 2014 title Grand Budapest Hotel which did $8.5M at 977 theaters and its wide expansion at 1,263 theaters in weekend 5 which posted $6.1M. At this pace, Asteroid City has a very good shot at surpassing the final cume of Anderson’s previous movie, The French Dispatch, which ended its stateside run at $16.1M.

UPDATED, Saturday AM: It’s still a close call between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental seeing about $18 million each, a fight that will go into matinees and evenings Saturday. There’s also still a fight for third between The Flash and No Hard Feelings, seeing $15M each.

Focus Features’ Asteroid City is coming in with $8.4M for the weekend after a $3.8M Friday.

Elemental’s ease here, which is expected to be around -39%, bests that of other Pixar movies, i.e., Toy Story 4, which fell 52% in weekend 2, Finding Dory, which eased 46%, and Inside Out, which dipped 42%. The hold for Elemental is also around where Super Mario Bros was at -37%. It’s not a shocker to see this type of hold for Elemental after its near-record low opening for Pixar last weekend. It’s a kids movie, and original at that. It was always going to take moms some time to make it to the theater on this one after reading reviews.

More thoughts on the Flash disaster: First of all, did we really expect this movie to open big, despite the tubthumping of Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav and co-DC boss James Gunn? In regards to the greater ecosystem of the motion picture industry – and this is a hard pill for Warners to swallow — there’s something to be thankful for in The Flash missing its projections, and not even having the potential to open to $100M. What? Why? Because it would have shown that a major studio could open a movie without the full promotional support of its actors and leading star. That would have been firepower for the studios to play hardball and stand firm in current AMPTP and SAG-AFTRA talks (which are ongoing and continuing). But with the reality of Flash’s misfire, it clearly shows the studios can’t open tentpoles without the full fire-breathing support of its cast in all forms.

On another note, the anticipated 75% drop here for The Flash doesn’t entirely boil down to the pic’s lack of proper publicity. What needs to be realized here is that this was a B CinemaScore superhero movie, despite the return of Michael Keaton’s Batman, and at a too-long 2 hours and 20 minutes. Yes, we’ve seen superhero movies make big box office numbers off of lengthy running times, but this studio/filmmaker addiction to two-hour-plus movies post-pandemic has got to stop. Shorter is better, not just critically on a popcorn pic, but for business and the turnover of showtimes. Testing clearly indicates when a movie is a drag, but for some reasons, studios prefer to ignore the tea leaves.

Something else that monkey-wrenched into Flash’s ticket sales: At the DC winter press day, Gunn spoke about how the DC universe has been splintered far too much (and he’s 100% correct) between TV and films, i.e., the Snyderverse vs. the Greg Berlanti CW-verse. It’s Gunn and Peter Safran’s mission going forward to make a cohesive DC universe across all mediums, just like Marvel. That said, it didn’t help that Flash the movie opens within a month after Flash the TV show wrapped a nine-season run. Bad timing on Warner Discovery’s part. Flash the TV show has its fervent fan base, especially for series star Grant Gustin. In their eyes, there’s no other person to play Barry Allen. There’s something to be said about Flash CW fans turning their back on the movie.

If No Hard Feelings hits $15M this weekend, that’s a great start post-pandemic for a rare raunch comedy, one that cost a thrifty $45M. That opening for the Gene Stupnitsky-directed movie is $6M off the $21M start of his previous bawdy comedy The Boys. Don’t bet against Sony: They know how to leg out female-skewing movies to big multiples, i.e., Little Women and Where the Crawdads Sing. This Jennifer Lawrence movie is leaning 51% female, with 64% between 18-34. PostTrak still solid at 84% positive with a 59% recommend from audience.

Convo was tracking mixed on social per RelishMix for the Lawrence comedy heading into the weekend, “with fans of Jennifer Lawrence who will follow her anywhere — to others wondering how the story and score on the ‘comedy meter’ and others who are onboard.” Clearly, those who are leaving the theater have turned a corner. Diversity demos are 54% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, & 17% Asian/Other. The R-rated movie played strongest in the South Central, West, and Mid-West. AMC Century City has the best gross in the U.S. with just under $30K (including previews).

Focus Features expansion of Asteroid City lands a B CinemaScore, with PostTrak audiences harder on it at 78% positive, 51% recommend. Guys showing up more here at 57%, and the 18-34 repping 66% of ticket buyers. The largest quad was 25-34 year-olds at 37%. Diversity demos were 62% Caucasian, 18% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black, & 14% Asian/Other. Best regions of play for the Wes Anderson movie were in the East and West with the Alamo New Mission in San Francisco doing the best business with north of $30K on Friday. The pic is coming in at the higher range of single digits, which for a niche film like this, is good. Asteroid City looks to rank sixth (and a running total by Sunday of $9.6M) behind Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts, which is eyeing $11.3M in fifth place, -45% for a running total of $122.7M.

RelishMix reports, “With the push coming off of Cannes in May and a limited drop last week, Asteroid City social awareness stats are running above norms by 2X at 178.5M across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok combined — as superfans of Wes Anderson are in their zone as the film goes wide. Most notable is the movie’s unique Instagram, with 30K fans who are savoring and sharing the many rich visual materials that are posted.”

All films this weekend look to make north of $106M, off 21% from a year ago, when Elvis led the weekend with $31.2M. Hopefully, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny doesn’t pull a Flash and come in under expectations, and thus provides some action of next weekend’s Independence Day stretch.

UPDATED, Friday afternoon: Two animated movies, Disney/Pixar’s Elemental and Sony Animation’s monolith Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, have punked The Flash and are in a fierce fight for No. 1 at the weekend box office with about $18 million apiece after Fridays that are estimated around $5.4M each.

If a bulk of those figures stick, Elemental, which posted one of the lowest openings for a Pixar movie in recent memory at $29.6M (though not as low as the first Toy Story, which did $29.1M), will see a second weekend ease of -39%, which isn’t that bad. That will get its 10-day take to $65M at 4,035 theaters, which is $5M more than the pandemic disaster Onward.

Meanwhile, there’s no such thing as superhero fatigue with Across the Spider-Verse easing 33% in its fourth weekend, swinging its running total by EOD Sunday to $315.8M at 3,785 theaters. By Sunday, Across the Spider-Verse will be pacing 14% ahead of Tom Holland’s Spider-Man: Homecoming (which finaled at $334.2M) and 5% behind Spider-Man: Far From Home (which finaled at $390.5M stateside). Wow, wow, wow.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash is looking at a second Friday of $4.3M and second weekend of $14M, right now down a massive 75%. Should that hold, it will be worse than the 66% second-weekend drop weathered by Warner Bros/DC’s Green Lantern back in 2011. The running total for Flash by Sunday will be around $86.3M at 4,256 theaters.

Flash could lose third to Sony’s new R-rated Jennifer Lawrence comedy No Hard Feelings which has a shot at $14M-$15M after a $5.3M Friday at 3,208 theaters.

Fifth place goes to Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts with a third Friday of $3M, a three-day of $10.6M, -49%, and a running total of $121.9M. Yes, the seventh robots-in-disguise film will definitely beat out the domestic gross of the last two Transformers movies: Last Knight at $130.1M and Bumblebee at $127.1M.

And the second weekend of Focus Features’ Wes Anderson title Asteroid City is looking better than the second and third weekend of the filmmaker’s The French Dispatch ($2M+) with $7.5M at 1,675 theaters. That will put the 10-day total for the ensemble comedy at $8.7M.

PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Sony’s mission to return comedy to the big screen with the R-rated Jennifer Lawrence movie No Hard Feelings began Thursday, when the film grossed $2.15 million from showtimes that began at 4 p.m. at 2,745 locations. The pic hopes to do around $12M this weekend in what will be second session where Warner Bros’ misfire The Flash hopes not take a -70% tumble. At the low end that’s $16.5M. A good hold will be off 55% to north of $24M.

The Flash grossed $2.8M Thursday at 4,234 theaters, off 9% from Wednesday, putting its first-week gross at $72.3M. That amount of money is what tracking thought the DC pic would do in Weekend 1.

There are no comps post-pandemic really for No Hard Feelings since we haven’t had a raunchy comedy for a while. The pic did best Universal’s female-leaning rom-com Ticket to Paradise, which made $1.1M off Thursday showtimes that began at 5 p.m. (even though that pic is older skewing and PG-13). Ticket to Paradise opened to $16.5M.

For filmmaker Gene Stupnitsky, who helmed No Hard Feelings, his previous R-rated comedy Good Boys was a high point for raunchy fare at the box office, opening to $21.4M in pre-pandemic August 2019 and legging out to $83.1M. God knows if those types of numbers can be achieved anymore since the industry has conditioned audiences to watch comedies in their homes on streaming versus with a group in theaters. But again, it comes down to product. Nothing is possible at the box office until a genre breaks through and changes the course of history; remember how pirate movies were the kiss of death until Pirates of the Caribbean came along?

Critics didn’t get No Hard Feelings at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, but audiences in early RT reactions seem to at 88%. Out of the gate on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, the Lawrence-led comedy is 4 stars, 84% positive — not bad. Last night saw 37% guys over 25, 29% women over 25, 19% women under 25 and 15% men under 25.

RELATED: ‘No Hard Feelings’ Review: Jennifer Lawrence Leans Into Hard-R Comedy

Focus Features’ expansion of Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City is off to a great start with $1.1M from 1,400 theaters last night in previews. The film swells from six Los Angeles and New York City locations to 1,675 today. Last weekend, the absurdist comedy ensemble posted the best opening theater average post pandemic with $140,000. The movie is expected to do in the single digits in its second weekend. Anderson’s previous movie, The French Dispatch, released when audiences were still trying to make their way back to theaters in the fall of 2021, grossed north of $2M when it went to a 1,000-plus theater break during its third weekend.

Asteroid City is 74% certified fresh with Rotten Tomatoes critics, which is a notch below where French Dispatch was at 75%. That pic also scored 76% with audiences on RT versus Asteroid City which is currently 69%. Asteroid City’s PostTrak is also 4 stars, but 79% positive. Thursday night attendance was comprised of 42% guys over 25, 28% women over 25, 16% men under 25 and 15% women under 25.

RELATED: ‘Asteroid City’ Review: Wes Anderson’s Latest Is Quirky, Creative & Obscure

Other activity Thursday: Sony Animation’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse led all pics in regular release with $3.6M (-5% from Wednesday) at 3,873 theaters, good for a $45.2M third week and running total of $297.8M. The Marvel pic will cross the three-century mark today.

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental was second at 4,035 theaters with $3.5M, even with Wednesday, for a first week of $46.9M. That’s less than the first week of the pandemic-impacted Pixar movie Onward, which made $49.7M in its first week. Warners/DC’s The Flash was third yesterday.

Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts did $1.9M yesterday off 3,680 theaters, -5% from Wednesday, for a second week of $30.7M and a running total of $111.3M.

Disney’s The Little Mermaid at 3,480 theaters made $1.7M, -5%, for a fourth week of $19.5M. Its running total is $261.5M.

The summer box office for the period of May 1-June 19 stands at $1.52 billion from 11 wide releases (north of 2,000 theaters). That’s 2.3% ahead of last summer, which counted $1.49 billion for the frame from six wide releases. The 2023 summer B.O. is 11% behind pre-pandemic 2019, which had grossed $1.7 billion for the period of May 1-June 19 off of 17 wide releases (north of 2,000 locations).

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