First Weekend Of 2024 Down 18%, As ‘Wonka’ Makes $14M+, ‘Night Swim’ Paddles To $12M, ‘Aquaman 2’ Hits $100M – Sunday AM Box Office
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SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU: While the supply of movies was able to keep the two-week holiday box office up over 2022’s by 13%, the lack of a mega tentpole carrying over into the New Year — ala Avatar: The Way of Water — is being felt.
The first weekend’s box office of 2024 looks to be down -18% from the same period in 2023, with an estimated $87M. If we thought the fall box office was wonky, well, here comes 2024. Remember, last year at this time had M3GAN providing a cushion. However, Universal/Blumhouse’s Night Swim is not that hipster, young female YA movie, with a No. 2 debut at $12M (granted at the top of its projection range).
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Warner Bros.’ Wonka won its third out of four weekends with $14.4M and a $164.6M running total. Overall, that’s a four-weekend No. 1 streak for Warner Bros. There are still kids off from school, with K-12 at 42% on break Friday and tomorrow seeing 16% on break.
Night Swim landed a “C” CinemaScore, which is middling for a horror film. CinemaScore crowds are always tough on horror movies. But even more cynical are Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audiences, who drowned this latest title from Blumhouse and Atomic Monster with one star, 45% positive, and a 26% recommend, which translates into a don’t-recommend. Near even split between males and females, at 51% to 49%. Sixty percent of ticket buyers were between 18-34, with 18-24-year-olds the biggest demo at 33%.
Diversity demos were 37% Caucasian, 31% Latino, 19% Black, and 7% Asian. PLF screens are repping close to a third of Night Swim‘s ticket sales — the movie doesn’t have any Imax screens. Best markets for the Bryce McGuire-directed movie are West, South Central, and South, with the AMC Burbank the top grossing venue stateside, with $25K through Saturday.
Chart updated with studio-reported numbers:
1.) Wonka (WB) 3,817 (-234) theaters, Fri $4.3M (-50%) Sat $6.1M Sun $4M 3-day $14.4M (-36%), Total $164.6M/Wk 3
2.) Night Swim (Uni) 3,250 theaters, Fri $5.2M, Sat $4.1M Sun $2.57M 3-day $12M/Wk 1
3.) Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (WB) 3,553 (-234) theaters, Fri $3.1M (-54%) Sat $4.55M Sun $2.96M 3-day $10.6M (-42%) /Total $100M/Wk 3
Aquaman 2 is expected to get north of $400M at the global box office; its running total is now at $334.8M. Flash’s global take was only $270.6M. The sequel’s Imax numbers were as follows: $2.5M global weekend for a running Imax total of $31M. Stateside that total is now $9.5M with $10.2M from China, and $11.3M from other offshore markets.
4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 3,712 (-127) theaters, Fri $2.98 (-56%) Sat $4.4M Sun $2.86M 3-day $10.25M (-40%), Total $77.8M/ Wk 3
5.) Anyone But You (Sony) 3,055 theaters, Fri $3.25M (-2%) Sat $4M Sun $2.25M 3-day $9.5M (+9%), Total $43.7M/Wk 3
Some projected that this movie would clear $10M this weekend, up 20%. But this is still a great result for the Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell movie, evidence that it’s being discovered, and posting great holds not seen in some time for a rom-com. Duly note, the spike here for Anyone But You is not due to a rise in theater count.
6.) Boys in the Boat (AMZ MGM) 2,687 (+130) theaters, Fri $1.785M (-35%), 3-day $6.02M (-28%), Total $33.8M, Wk 2
7.) The Color Purple (WB) 3,218 (+15) theaters, Fri $1.3M (-69%) Sat $2M Sun $1.43M 3-day $4.765M (-59%),/ Total $54.6M/Wk 2
There seems to be some cold water getting poured on the Oprah Winfrey-Steven Spielberg-Scott Sander feature take of the Broadway musical. Yes, it cost $90M before P&A, and after winning a Christmas Day further boosted by preview group sales ($18.1M), The Color Purple is showing the steepest drop of any holiday release in the top 10 right. Meanwhile, midweek daily grosses since Christmas Day have shown severe double-digit drops.
However, there are two more bumps for the movie: MLK weekend, and Oscar noms. Pic’s overseas rollout begins Jan. 17 and goes to February, not that many are expecting much. But with a movie like this, the hope is that Oscar noms provides some momentum abroad. Right now, the industry domestic outlook for Color Purple is $75M final. Through 14-days, Color Purple looks to be around $4M behind The Greatest Showman. But it’s just not showing the holds of that movie.
8.) Iron Claw (A24) 2,392 (-402) theaters, Fri $1.32M (-22%) Sat $1.86M Sun $1.34M 3-day $4.5M (-2%), Total $24.3M /Wk 3
Excellent hold here for the R-rated drama, which is playing in the flyover states. It is one of a few R-rated dramas to exceed $20M-plus after Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Air, and Priscilla.
9.) Ferrari (NEON) 2,121 (-265) theaters, Fri $775K Sat $1.08M Sun $650K 3-day $2.5M (-36%) Total $16M/Wk 2
Ferrari director Michael Mann turns 81 next month, and it should be noted that his filmmaking canon as a director has cleared $1 billion — and that’s without any sequels, superhero Marvel movies, or big IP like Barbie. Through 14 days, Ferrari will be pacing 20% behind Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, another semi-biopic drama that launched on a Monday Christmas in 2017. What’s key about Mann’s movies is that they have historically had long tails –even in the home. Mann’s Heat is one of the top 15 biggest home entertainment title for Warner Bros., in the league of Harry Potter.
Many involved here on this $96M production (funded between $75M foreign sales and equity investors) wanted to make Mann’s dream project about Ferrari come true, including STX, then NEON, who ponied up $15M-17M to take on U.S. rights for the movie and swerve it from a streaming-only debut in favor of a big screen play.
I understand they were on the hook for a marketing campaign of $15M, but cut it to around $7M. I understand there was a push by Mann to get the movie opened on Dec. 22 so that it had a few extra days of grosses, but NEON wanted to stick to the Christmas Day debut. Still, the movie for NEON will be profitable for them as they prepare to sell the studio. Former Universal Co-Chairman Mark Shmuger, who made Public Enemies and Miami Vice with Mann, once exclaimed about the filmmaker: “I actually marvel at his ability to keep all of his creative options open,” he said. “He’s fearless. He is willing to try everything. That’s a process that does involve wear and tear on everybody.” Shmuger pointed out that Mann movies are not just about the box office: “The key on looking at the profitability of Michael’s movies is that they’ve got a very long tail, well after the theatrical run…Everybody’s seen Heat. Everybody’s seen Last of the Mohicans.… [The films] do fantastically well in video, on all television outlets, overseas.”
Oscar ballots aren’t in yet, so there might be further legs for Ferrari at the B.O. Let the record show how well Ferrari did in the UK, where it’s being handled by Sky: The pic opened in the No. 2 spot over New Year’s Even weekend B.O. with $2.5M after Wonka.
10.) Poor Things (Sea) 750 (-50) theaters, Fri $580K (-28%) Sat $830K Sun $590K 3-day $2M (-9%), Total $14.2M/Wk 5
If there’s two naughty arthouse titles in the awards seasons mix, it’s Poor Things and Saltburn. Poor Things has surpassed the gross of Amazon MGM’s Saltburn ($11.3M), the latter title now reigning on Prime Video.
11.) Hunger Games Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 1,428 (-232) theatres, Fri $585K (-47%) Sat $796K Sun $454K 3-day $1.835M (-36%) Total $163.8M/Wk 8
FRIDAY MIDDAY: Warner Bros’ Wonka is looking to rule its third out of fourth weekend at the box office with around $12M, -46%, though it won’t be shocking if Saturday matinees push the Timothee Chalamet movie even higher. Wonka is in play at 3,817 and is eyeing a Friday of $3.8M, -56%.
Blumhouse/Atomic Monster’s first movie since the merger via Universal, Night Swim, is breaking double digits with $11.5M in second after a $4.7M Friday that includes previews at 3,250 theaters. While financially speaking the $15M production will be OK, we’ve seen better by horror in early January, i.e. pre-pandemic, Escape Room did $18.2M in early January 2019, legging out to $57M. Night Swim just doesn’t have the stickyness on it ala M3GAN. If that was the case, Universal would have had dancing people in swimming trunks to promote this movie before Christmas showing up at the Empire State Building. When Uni’s got it, they strut it.
The social media universe per RelishMix for Night Swim is at 137.4M across Facebook, X, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok combined. That pales in comparison to the 488.5M social media universe of Five Nights at Freddy’s and 330.3M of M3GAN. Social chatter is mixed on the Kerry Condon-Wyatt Russell movie. Among the negative chatter, RelishMix spotted, “Some horror enthusiasts have found the new film to be underwhelming, commenting ‘Blumhouse scrapes the shallow end of the pool…’ — as fans chew through hypothetical scenarios regarding release dates and how the film will play.”
Illumination/Universal’s Migration booked at 3,712 is seeing a third Friday of $3M, 3-day of $10.7M, -37%, for a running total by the end of its third weekend of $78.2M.
Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is at 3,553 theaters and will near $100M. Friday is $3M and weekend 3 is $10M, -45%, with a running total by EOD Sunday of $99.5M.
Fifth belongs to Sony’s Anyone But You at 3,055 theaters, also in weekend 3, but with $9.5M, +9% — a very good sign– after a $3M Friday and running total of $43.7M. Anyone But You star Sydney Sweeney has been posting ecstatic fan reactions after they leave the cinema on her Instagram, however, the biggest advertisement for this romcom might just be SNL‘s Chloe Fineman and her impersonation of Sweeney!
Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat at 2,687 theaters is 6th with a $1.5M Friday, 3-day of $5.25M, -37%, for a running total of $33.1M through 14 days.
FRIDAY AM: There’s always been a demand for horror in the New Year, and Universal, Blumhouse and Atomic Monster are meeting that this weekend with Night Swim which made $1.45M in previews at 2,750 theaters from showtimes that began at 5PM.
The $15M PG-13 horror movie aimed at 17-34 year olds isn’t expected to be M3GAN, the early PG-13 horror doll hit from last year, which overindexed to $30.4M in a hefty Avatar 2 marketplace, to a $95M-plus domestic take. Night Swim‘s outlook is in the $8M-$12M vicinity over three days.
Warner Bros’ Wonka in its fourth weekend is expected to prevail, down 40%, with a take in the teens. Universal chose this weekend given the lack of competition and so that the movie could play into a hold over the MLK weekend.
Interestingly enough Night Swim‘s previews are spot-on the same as M. Night Shyamalan’s R-rated Knock at the Cabin from late February 2023 which went on to post a $5.4M opening day and $14.1M opening. Reviews are awful for Night Swim with a Rotten Tomatoes critical score of 27%. Knock at the Cabin had better reviews at 67% fresh.
Night Swim, directed and adapted by Bryce McGuire, is based on the 2014 short film and stars Wyatt Russell (The Falcon and the Winter Soldier) as Ray Waller, a former major league baseball player forced into early retirement by a degenerative illness, who moves into a new home with his concerned wife Eve (Oscar nominee Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin), teenage daughter Izzy (Amélie Hoeferle, this fall’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes) and young son Elliot (Gavin Warren, Fear the Walking Dead).
Secretly hoping, against the odds, to return to pro ball, Ray persuades Eve that the new home’s shimmering backyard swimming pool will be fun for the kids and provide physical therapy for him. But a dark secret in the home’s past will unleash a malevolent force that will drag the family under, into the depths of inescapable terror.
McGuire’s screenplay is from a screen story he wrote with Rod Blackhurst.
Wonka led Thursday with $2.7M at 4,051 theaters, -14% from Wednesday, for a third week of $39.5M, -26%, and a running total of $150.2M. Until Dune: Part Two arrives, Wonka is Timothee Chalamet’s highest grossing movie as a solo star stateside, ahead of Dune‘s $108M.
Illumination/Universal’s Migration at 3,839 theaters was second yesterday with $2.09M, -17%, for a $30.4M second weekend, -18% from week one, and a total of $67.6M — note that’s higher than the running total of Disney’s Wish ($61.8M) which ended its sixth week.
Third goes to Sony’s Anyone But You with a second Thursday of $1.98M, -8%, and a second week of $18M, up a solid 12% from Christmas week one, and a running total of $34.1M.
Fourth on Thursday is Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, at 3,787 and day’s take of $1.9M, -15%, $31.2M second weekend, -47%, and running total of $89.4M. That’s 5% behind The Flash‘s at the end of its second week, that DC bomb finaling at $108.1M domestic.
Fifth yesterday at 2,557 theaters was Amazon MGM’s The Boys in the Boat with $1M, -8%, and a running total of $27.8M since Christmas.
Sixth is Warner Bros.’ The Color Purple at 3,203 theaters, a Thursday of $820K, -10%, and a running total since Christmas Day of $49.8M.
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