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NFL Week 2: Pick'em confidence ratings

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Whether you’re playing pick’em for free in The Action Network app or going old school with your coworkers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 2 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than those from PointsBet, which we use below.

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 08: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots gestures to the crowd during the game between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium on September 08, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Tom Brady of the New England Patriots gestures to the crowd during a game between vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers at Gillette Stadium on Sept. 8, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

NFL Pick’em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my SU ratings for Week 2 then wrap it up with ATS.

1. Patriots

Matchup: at Dolphins

Confidence Rating: 91.1%

2. Ravens

Matchup: vs. Cardinals

Confidence Rating: 83.1%

3. Texans

Matchup: vs. Jaguars

Confidence Rating: 74.3%

4. Chiefs

Matchup: at Raiders

Confidence Rating: 72.9%

5. Panthers

Matchup: vs. Buccaneers

Confidence Rating: 71.4%

T-6. Packers

Matchup: vs. Vikings

Confidence Rating: 62%

T-6. Titans

Matchup: vs. Colts

Confidence Rating: 62%

T-6. Cowboys

Matchup: at Redskins

Confidence Rating: 62%

T-9. Rams

Matchup: vs. Saints

Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-9. Steelers

Matchup: vs. Seahawks

Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-9. Chargers

Matchup: at Lions

Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-12. Browns

Matchup: at Jets

Confidence Rating: 55.2%

T-12. Bills

Matchup: at Giants

Confidence Rating: 55.2%

14. 49ers

Matchup: at Bengals

Confidence Rating: 53.5%

15. Bears

Matchup: at Broncos

Confidence Rating: 51.7%

T-16. Falcons

Matchup: vs. Eagles

Confidence Rating: 50%

T-16. Eagles

Matchup: at Falcons

Confidence Rating: 50%

18. Broncos

Matchup: vs. Bears

Confidence Rating: 48.3%

19. Bengals

Matchup: vs. 49ers

Confidence Rating: 46.5%

T-20. Giants

Matchup: vs. Bills

Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-20. Jets

Matchup: vs. Browns

Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-22. Lions

Matchup: vs. Chargers

Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-22. Seahawks

Matchup: at Steelers

Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-22. Saints

Matchup: at Rams

Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-25. Redskins

Matchup: vs. Cowboys

Confidence Rating: 38%

T-25. Colts

Matchup: at Titans

Confidence Rating: 38%

T-25. Vikings

Matchup: at Packers

Confidence Rating: 38%

28. Buccaneers

Matchup: at Panthers

Confidence Rating: 28.6%

29. Raiders

Matchup: vs. Chiefs

Confidence Rating: 27.1%

30. Jaguars

Matchup: at Texans

Confidence Rating: 25.7%

31. Cardinals

Matchup: at Ravens

Confidence Rating: 16.9%

32. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. Patriots

Confidence Rating: 8.9%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Dolphins

Spread: +19 vs. Patriots

T-2. 49ers

Spread: +1.5 at Bengals

T-2. Cardinals

Spread: +13.5 at Ravens

4. Broncos

Spread: +2.5 vs. Chicago

T-5. Falcons

Spread: +1.5 vs. Eagles

T-5. Redskins

Spread: +5 vs. Cowboys

T-7. Jaguars

Spread: +8.5 at Texans

T-7. Jets

Spread: +2.5 vs. Browns

T-7. Seahawks

Spread: +4 at Steelers

T-10. Raiders

Spread: +7.5 vs. Chiefs

T-10. Packers

Spread: -3 vs. Vikings

T-10. Chargers

Spread: -2.5 at Lions

T-10. Titans

Spread: -3 vs. Colts

T-10. Rams

Spread: -2.5 vs. Saints

T-15. Giants

Spread: +1.5 vs. Bills

T-15. Panthers

Spread: -6.5 vs. Buccaneers

T-15. Buccaneers

Spread: +6.5 at Panthers

T-15. Bills

Spread: -1.5 at Giants

T-19. Colts

Spread: +3 at Titans

T-19. Saints

Spread: +2.5 at Rams

T-19. Vikings

Spread: +3 at Packers

T-19. Lions

Spread: +2.5 vs. Chargers

T-19. Chiefs

Spread: -7.5 at Raiders

T-24. Steelers

Spread: -4 vs. Seahawks

T-24. Browns

Spread: -2.5 at Jets

T-24. Texans

Spread: -8.5 vs. Jaguars

T-27. Cowboys

Spread: -5 at Redskins

T-27. Eagles

Spread: -1.5 at Falcons

29. Bears

Spread: -2.5 at Broncos

T-30. Ravens

Spread: -13.5 vs. Cardinals

T-30. Bengals

Spread: -1.5 vs. 49ers

32. Patriots

Spread: -19 at Dolphins

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like: