How to Predict the Oscars: 2015 Edition
Having trouble making your Oscar picks? Below, we offer a closer look at predictors for a variety of Academy Awards races.
Best picture
First, as a recap, here are some stats on this year's best picture nominees:
Nominees Metascore Release Date Box Office (U.S.)* # of Oscar Noms Odds to Win**
American Sniper 72 Dec 25 $281 million 6 16:1
Birdman 88 Oct 17 $35 million 9 5:8
Boyhood 100 Jul 11 $25 million 6 6:5
The Grand Budapest Hotel 88 Mar 7 $59 million 9 40:1
The Imitation Game 73 Nov 28 $75 million 8 28:1
Selma 89 Dec 25 $46 million 2 33:1
The Theory of Everything 72 Nov 7 $32 million 5 50:1
Whiplash 88 Oct 10 $10 million 5 50:1
* Box office data through February 9, 2015; source: Box Office Mojo.
** Betting odds from Bovada as of February 10, 2015.
Historical factors
What factors over the past decade have served as accurate predictors of the eventual best picture winner? Here's a look, sorted by highest to lowest correlation. The final column shows which of this year's nominees fall into each category, which should be taken as an encouraging sign for films toward the top of the chart and a negative for films near the bottom.
Best picture winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
also earned Oscar nomination for film editing? 100% AmSniper, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation, Whiplash
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
also earned Oscar nomination for screenplay? 100% ALL EXCEPT Selma
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
had a Metascore > 79? 90% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Selma, Whiplash
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes
had > 5 Oscar nominations that year? 90% AmSniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
also earned Oscar nomination for directing? 90% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation
yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
also earned at least one Oscar nomination for acting? 90% ALL EXCEPT Budapest and Selma
yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes
won DGA Award? 80% Birdman
no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes
won any SAG Award? 80% Birdman, Boyhood, ToE, Whiplash
yes yes yes yes no yes yes no yes yes
was rated R? 80% AmSniper, Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Whiplash
yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes no
opened in October, November, or December? 80% ALL EXCEPT Boyhood and Budapest
yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes no yes
won PGA Award? 70% Birdman
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no no no
won BFCA Critics Choice best picture award? 70% Boyhood
yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes no no
was the betting favorite according to oddsmakers? 70% Birdman
yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no
won BAFTA best picture? 60% Boyhood
yes yes yes yes yes yes no no no no
won Boston Society of Film Critics best picture? 60% NONE
yes no yes no yes yes yes yes no no
grossed over $100 million in U.S.? 50% AmSniper
no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes
also earned Oscar nomination for cinematography? 50% Birdman, Budapest
no no yes yes yes yes yes no no no
won Chicago Film Critics Association best picture? 50% Boyhood
yes no no no yes no yes yes yes no
had the highest Metascore among nominees? 40% Boyhood
yes no yes no yes yes no no no no
won a Golden Globe for best picture (either one)? 40% Boyhood, Budapest
yes yes yes no no yes no no no no
also earned multiple Oscar nominations for acting? 40% Birdman, Boyhood, Imitation, ToE
yes no yes yes no no no no no yes
earned the most Oscar nominations out of any film that year? 30% Birdman, Budapest
no no no yes yes no yes no no no
won NY Film Critics Circle best picture? 30% Boyhood
no no yes no yes no yes no no no
had a Metascore > 89? 30% Boyhood
yes no no no yes no yes no no no
was an original story (not a sequel/biopic/adaptation)? 30% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest, Whiplash
no no yes no yes no no no yes no
was on more critic top-10 lists than any other nominee? 30% Boyhood
yes no no no yes no yes no no no
had the highest box office gross among nominees? 20% AmSniper
no no no no no yes no yes no no
won National Board of Review best picture? 20% NONE
no no no no no yes yes no no no
won National Society of Film Critics best picture? 20% NONE
no no no no yes no no no no yes
had a producer with a previous best picture Oscar win? 10% AmSniper, Budapest, Selma
no no no no no no no no no yes
had a director with a previous film that won best picture? 10% AmSniper
no no no no no no no no no yes
won Los Angeles Film Critics Association best picture? 10% Boyhood
no no no no yes no no no no no
won Toronto Film Critics Association best picture? 10% Boyhood
no no no no no no yes no no no
had the lowest Metascore among nominees? 10% AmSniper, ToE
no no no no no no no no yes no
is labeled a comedy on IMDb? * 10% Birdman, Budapest
no no yes no no no no no no no
grossed less than $25 million in the U.S.? 0% Whiplash
no no no no no no no no no no
* May have other genres in addition to comedy.
Years above refer to the year of each Academy Awards ceremony, honoring films that were released during the previous calendar year. The previous best picture winners are: 2014–12 Years a Slave, 2013–Argo, 2012–The Artist, 2011–The King's Speech, 2010–The Hurt Locker, 2009–Slumdog Millionaire, 2008–No Country for Old Men, 2007–The Departed, 2006–Crash, 2005–Million Dollar Baby
Summary of positive and negative indicators by film
Here are the totals of positive indicators (the green percentages above) and negative indicators (red) for each of this year's nominees. Note that we are also treating the BAFTA winnullner as a positive indicator (despite that 60% accuracy rate) since it has been an accurate predictor for six straight years. The actual net number is arbitrary—since we could have added (or removed) individual indicators from the list above—though it does suggest the relative strength of each film.
Nominees # of Positive Indicators # of Negative Indicators Net
American Sniper 6 4 +2
Birdman 11 3 +8
Boyhood 10 6 +4
The Grand Budapest Hotel 6 4 +2
The Imitation Game 6 0 +6
Selma 2 1 +1
The Theory of Everything 4 1 +3
Whiplash 7 2 +5
Best director
The directors contending for an Oscar this year are Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), and Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game). Birdman's Iñárritu is currently the Vegas favorite, with Linklater not far behind.
Best director winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
directed a film nominated for best picture Oscar that year? 100% ALL EXCEPT Foxcatcher
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
was nominated for a DGA award that year? 100% ALL EXCEPT Foxcatcher
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
directed a film nominated for a film editing Oscar that year? 90% Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes
directed a film nominated for at least one acting Oscar that year? 80% ALL EXCEPT Budapest
yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes
directed a film nominated for a cinematography Oscar that year? 80% Birdman, Budapest
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes no
won DGA award that year? 80% Birdman
yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
directed a film that won the PGA award that year? 70% Birdman
yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes no
won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 70% Boyhood
yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes no
won the BAFTA award that year? 60% Boyhood
yes no yes no yes yes yes no yes no
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 60% Boyhood
no no yes no yes no yes yes yes yes
directed a film that won a WGA award that year? 50% (announced 2/14)
no no no no yes yes yes yes yes no
won the Golden Globe that year? 50% Boyhood
yes no no no no yes no yes yes yes
was a first-time Oscar nominee? 40% Imitation
no no yes yes yes yes no no no no
had the highest-grossing film among director nominees? 40% Imitation
yes no no no no yes no yes yes no
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Boyhood
no no no no yes yes yes yes no no
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Boyhood
yes no no no yes yes no no yes no
was a previous Oscar winner? 30% NONE
no yes no no no no yes no no yes
had the best-reviewed film among director nominees? 30% Boyhood
no no yes no yes yes no no no no
won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 30% Birdman
no no no no yes no no yes yes no
won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 30% Boyhood
yes no no no yes no yes no no no
won National Board of Review award that year? 20% NONE
no no no no no no no yes yes no
won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 10% Boyhood
no no no no yes no no no no no
Best original screenplay
Up for the Academy Award this year are Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness (The Grand Budapest Hotel), E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman (Foxcatcher), Dan Gilroy (Nightcrawler), Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo (Birdman), and Richard Linklater (Boyhood). Note that Birdman's screenplay doesn't meet the eligibility requirements for a WGA Award, so it is the sole Oscar nominee here not also competing at the WGAs. (Last year, 12 Years a Slave was in the same position and wound up winning the Oscar for adapted screenplay.)
Best original screenplay winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 90% Birdman, Boyhood, Budapest
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no
was nominated for a WGA award that year? 80% ALL EXCEPT Birdman
yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
won WGA award that year? 80% (announced Feb. 14)
yes no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
won the BAFTA award that year? 70% Budapest
no yes no yes yes no yes yes yes yes
won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 70% Birdman
yes yes yes yes no no yes yes yes no
was a first-time Oscar nominee? 50% Nightcrawler
no no no yes yes yes yes yes no no
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Budapest
yes no no no yes no yes no yes no
had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 30% Boyhood
yes no no yes yes no no no no no
won the Golden Globe that year? 30% Birdman
yes yes yes no no no no no no no
was a previous Oscar winner? 20% NONE
no yes yes no no no no no no no
won National Board of Review award that year? 20% NONE
no no no no no no yes no no yes
won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 20% Budapest
yes no no no no no no no no yes
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 0% Budapest
no no no no no no no no no no
won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 0% Budapest
no no no no no no no no no no
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 0% Budapest
no no no no no no no no no no
Best adapted screenplay
This year's adapted screenplay nominees include Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice), Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Jason Hall (American Sniper), Anthony McCarten (The Theory of Everything), and Graham Moore (The Imitation Game). Complicating matters a bit is the fact that every organization other than the Academy considered Chazelle's Whiplash screenplay to be original rather than adapted. Note that The Theory of Everything was not eligible for a WGA Award.
Best adapted screenplay winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 100% ALL EXCEPT Vice
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
was nominated for a WGA award that year? 90% AmSniper, Imitation, Whiplash
no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
won WGA award that year? 80% (announced Feb. 14)
no yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes
was a first-time Oscar nominee? 60% ALL EXCEPT Vice
yes yes no yes yes no no yes yes no
won USC Scripter award that year? 60% Imitation
yes yes yes yes no yes yes no no no
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 60% NONE
yes no no yes no yes yes yes no yes
had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 50% Whiplash
yes yes no yes no yes no no no yes
won the Golden Globe that year? 50% NONE
no no no yes no yes yes no yes yes
won National Board of Review award that year? 50% Vice
no no yes yes no yes yes no no yes
won the BAFTA award that year? 40% ToE
no no no yes no yes no no yes yes
won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 40% NONE
yes no no yes no yes no no no yes
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 30% NONE
no yes no yes no no no no no yes
was a previous Oscar winner? 20% NONE
no no yes no no no yes no no no
won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% NONE
no no no yes no no no no no yes
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 20% NONE
no no no no no no yes no no yes
won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 20% NONE
no no no yes no no yes no no no
Best film editing
This year's nominated editors are Joel Cox & Gary Roach (American Sniper), Sandra Adair (Boyhood), Barney Pilling (The Grand Budapest Hotel), William Goldenberg (The Imitation Game), and Tom Cross (Whiplash).
Best film editing winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
was nominated for an ACE Eddie award that year? 100% ALL
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 80% ALL
yes yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes
won an ACE Eddie award that year? 80% Boyhood, Budapest
no yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
had their film also nominated for best directing Oscar? 70% Boyhood, Budapest, Imitation
yes no no yes yes yes no yes yes yes
had their film also nominated for best cinematography Oscar? 60% Budapest
yes no yes yes yes yes no no no yes
won the BAFTA award that year? 50% Whiplash
no yes no yes yes yes yes no no no
had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 30% Boyhood
no no no yes yes yes no no no no
was a first-time Oscar nominee? 30% Boyhood, Budapest, Whiplash
no no no no yes yes no no yes no
was a previous Oscar winner? 30% AmSniper, Imitation
no no yes no no no no yes no yes
Best cinematography
This year's field includes Roger Deakins (Unbroken), Ryszard Lenczewski and Lukasz Zal (Ida), Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman), Dick Pope (Mr. Turner), and Robert D. Yeoman (The Grand Budapest Hotel). Only Lubezki has won an Oscar before.
Best cinematography winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
was nominated for an ASC award that year? 90% ALL EXCEPT Ida
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
had their film also nominated for best picture Oscar? 80% Birdman, Budapest
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no no yes
had their film also nominated for best directing Oscar? 70% Birdman, Budapest
yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no yes
had their film also nominated for best editing Oscar? 70% Budapest
yes yes yes no yes yes yes no no yes
won the ASC award that year? 50% (announced 2/15)
yes no no yes no yes yes no yes no
won the BAFTA award that year? 40% Birdman
yes yes no no no yes no no yes no
had the best-reviewed film among nominees? 30% MrTurner
yes no no no no yes no yes no no
was a first-time Oscar nominee? 30% Budapest, Ida
no no no no yes yes no yes no no
was a previous Oscar winner? 30% Birdman
no no yes no no no yes no no yes
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 30% Birdman, Budapest
yes no no yes no no no no no yes
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 30% NONE
no no no no no yes yes yes no no
won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% Birdman
yes no no no no no no yes no no
won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% MrTurner
no no no no no yes yes no no no
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 10% Birdman
yes no no no no no no no no no
Best animated feature
Nominees include Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, and The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. This year's race is a bit harder to predict than in the past thanks to the Academy's snub of The LEGO Movie, which meets many of the criteria established by previous winners.
Best animated feature winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
was produced in the USA (at least partially)? 100% BigHero6, Boxtrolls, HTTYD2
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
won the BAFTA award for best animated film? 100% NONE
yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 80% NONE
yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
won the Golden Globe award for best animated film? 75% HTTYD2
yes yes no yes yes yes yes no
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 71% NONE
no no yes yes yes yes yes
had the highest Metascore among nominees? 70% Kaguya
no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
was the highest-grossing film among nominees? 70% BigHero6
yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes no
won the PGA award for best animated feature? 67% NONE
yes no no yes yes yes yes no yes
won the Annie award for best animated feature? 60% HTTYD2
yes no yes no yes no yes no yes yes
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 60% Kaguya
no no yes yes no no yes yes yes yes
won National Board of Review award that year? 60% HTTYD2
no no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes
won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Kaguya
no no no no no yes yes yes yes no
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 33% NONE
no no no no yes no yes no yes
Best documentary feature
This year's documentary nominees are Citizenfour, Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth, and Virunga. The most notable Oscar documentary snub, Life Itself, has received a decent number of awards elsewhere on the awards circuit.
Best documentary winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
was released in theaters prior to Oscar nominations? 80% ALL EXCEPT Salt
yes yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes
grossed more than $2 million in the U.S.? 70% Citizenfour
yes yes no yes no yes no yes yes yes
won an ACE award for best-edited documentary that year? 60% Citizenfour
yes yes no no yes yes no yes yes no
won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 60% NONE
yes yes no no yes yes no yes yes no
won National Board of Review award that year? 60% NONE
no yes no no yes yes no yes yes yes
mostly concerns subject matter inside the USA? 50% Citizenfour, Vivian
yes no yes yes no yes no yes no no
won a PGA award that year? 43% NONE
no yes no no yes yes no
was nominated for an Intl. Doc. Assoc. (IDA) award that year? 40% Citizenfour, Salt, Vivian
no yes no no no yes yes no no yes
won a WGA award that year? 40% (announced 2/14)
no yes no yes yes no yes no no no
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 40% Citizenfour
no no no no yes yes no yes no yes
had the highest Metascore among nominees? 30% Virunga
no no no yes yes yes no no no no
was about war, policy, or politics? 30% Citizenfour, Vietnam
no no no yes no no yes yes no no
was about nature? 30% Virunga
no no no no yes no no yes yes no
was about art, music, or other creative endeavors? 30% Salt, Vivian
yes yes no no no yes no no no no
won the IDA award that year? 30% Citizenfour
no yes no no no yes no no no yes
won a DGA award that year? 30% Citizenfour
no yes no yes yes no no no no no
won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 30% Citizenfour
no no no yes no yes no yes no no
won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% NONE
no no no no yes yes no no no no
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 20% NONE
no no no no yes no yes no no no
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 20% Citizenfour
no no no yes no yes no no no no
won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 10% NONE
no no no no no yes no no no no
Best foreign-language film
Looking for a pattern in the Academy's choices for top foreign film? You certainly won't find one in the table below, thanks in large part to the fact that so many worthy films are often barred from the nominee pool due to the Academy's inscrutable procedures. This year's nominees, for what it's worth, are Poland's Ida, Russia's Leviathan, Estonia's Tangerines (which has not opened in the USA), Mauritania's Timbuktu, and Wild Tales from Argentina.
Best foreign-language film winner ...
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 Match % Applies this year to:
was from a European country? 60% Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines
yes yes no yes no no yes yes no yes
was from a country that had won a foreign-language Oscar before? 60% Leviathan, WildTales
yes yes no yes yes no no yes no yes
was released in the U.S. prior to the Oscar nominations? 50% Ida, Leviathan
yes yes yes no no no no yes no yes
won the Golden Globe award for best foreign-language film? 50% Leviathan
yes yes yes yes no no no no no yes
had the highest Metascore among nominees? 30% Leviathan
yes yes yes no no no no no no no
was nominated for another Oscar that year? 30% Ida
no yes yes no no no no no no yes
won the BAFTA award for best foreign-language film? 30% Ida
yes yes no no no no no yes no no
won BFCA (Critics Choice) award that year? 30% NONE
no yes yes no no no no no no yes
won National Board of Review award that year? 30% WildTales
no yes yes no no no no no no yes
won NY Film Critics Circle award that year? 30% Ida
no yes yes no no no no yes no no
won Chicago Film Critics Association award that year? 20% NONE
no yes yes no no no no no no no
won London Film Critics Circle award that year? 20% Leviathan
no no yes no no no no yes no no
won National Society of Film Critics award that year? 20% NONE
no yes yes no no no no no no no
won Boston Society of Film Critics award that year? 10% NONE
no yes no no no no no no no no
won LA Film Critics Association award that year? 10% Ida
no no no no no no no yes no no
won Toronto Film Critics Association award that year? 10% NONE
no yes no no no no no no no no
More Oscar coverage to come
Check back next week (a few days before the February 22nd ceremony) for a roundup of final Oscar predictions from dozens of industry experts. In the meantime, give us your own Oscar picks, or take a closer look at the history of the Academy's best picture selections.
