The 2017 Martin Luther King holiday will go down in history as the weekend when three high-profile studio movies bombed, including Martin Scorsese's Silence and Ben Affleck's Live by Night.
Live by Night, playing in 2,822 theaters, may not even crack $6 million for the four-day holiday after earning an estimated $5.4 million for the three days. That's bleak news for Affleck and Warner Bros., which spent a net $65 million to make the period gangster movie (tax incentives and rebates brought the budget down from $90 million). Live by Night, which first opened in select theaters over the year-end holidays, was not doubt damaged by poor reviews and a B CinemaScore. It is also struggling overseas, where it opened to $3.3 million from its first 28 markets, including a dismal U.K. opening of $873,000.
The forecast is even worse for Silence, which is likewise expanding nationwide this weekend into a total of 747 theaters. The epic historical drama is tipped to earn $1.9 million for the three days and $2.3 million for four days after costing $50 million to make. Silence, which was financed independently and distributed by Paramount, will be one of Scorsese's lowest-grossing features in the U.S. but hopes for redemption overseas.
Paramount isn't having a good holiday, no matter how you look at it. Ill-fated family film Monster Trucks is DOA with a projected four-day gross of $14.1 million from 3,111 locations, including $10.5 million for the three days. While that's slightly more than expected, the movie, earning an A CinemaScore, cost a hefty $125 million to make. In late 2016, Viacom took a $115 million write down for Monster Trucks in advance of its launch, a highly unusual move. Overseas, the CGI/live-action hybrid has grossed $14.7 million to date for a global total of $28.8 million.
On a brighter note, Hidden Figures - the biographical drama about three black female NASA mathematicians who helped put the first man into space - continues to hold at No. 1. From Fox 2000 and Chernin Entertainment, the movie won the race last weekend with $22.8 million and is now looking to pull in $25.3 million-plus over the four-day holiday. The movie, now available in 3,286 cinemas, earned $20.5 million for the three days and will finish the weekend with a domestic cume of $59.6 million.
Illumination and Universal's animated hit Sing follows at No. 2 with a three-day take of $13.8 million and estimated four-day gross of $18.5 million for a domestic cume of $237.7 million. Overseas, Sing took in another $13.2 million for a foreign tally of $164.3 million and estimated global total of $403 million through Monday.
Next up is Lionsgate's La La Land, which is getting a big bump after its record seven Golden Globe wins. The awards frontrunner grossed $14.5 million for the three days for an estimated four-day tally of $17 million from 1,848 theaters, putting its domestic cume at $77.1 million through Monday. La La Land saw a 43 percent spike over last weekend, in part because it upped its theater count to 1,848 runs, including a berth in 148 Imax theaters.
Overseas, La La Land sang loudly, earning a further $17.8 million from 50 markets - including a stellar $7.3 million debut in the U.K. - for a foreign total of $54.8 million and estimated global haul of $132 million through Monday.
Disney and Lucasfilm's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is looking at a fourth-place finish in North America with an estimated four-day tally of $17 million. On Friday, the movie passed up fellow Disney release Finding Dory ($486 million) to become the top-grossing release of 2016 in North America and will finish the holiday weekend with a domestic total north of $500 million and global haul of roughly $980 million as it prepares to cross the $1 billion mark.
STX Entertainment's new horror thriller The Bye Bye Man is coming in ahead of expectations, earning $13.4 million from 2,200 cinemas for the three days and an estimated $15 million for the four. The movie, costing a modest $7.4 million to make, earned a C CinemaScore, not unusual for a horror offering.
Pete Berg's Boston Marathon bombing drama Patriots Day, starring Mark Wahlberg, follows at No. 6 with a three-day gross of $12 million from 3,120 theaters and an estimated $14.3 million for the four days. The CBS Films and Lionsgate release nabbed a coveted A+ CinemaScore as it expanded nationwide after opening in select theaters over Christmas.
Like Bye Bye Man, Open Road's crime drama Sleepless is faring better than expected with a projected four-day debut of $10.1 million from 1,803 locations. It earned a B+ CinemaScore.
Among other award contenders, La La Land wasn't the only title enjoying a Globes bump. Barry Jenkins' Moonlight, which won the Globe for best picture in the drama category, grossed an impressive $1.4 million in its 13th weekend from 582 locations for a total $14.9 million. A24 will expand the movie nationwide on Jan. 27 following Oscar nominations.
Jan. 14, 7:45 a.m. Updated with revised weekend projections.
Jan. 15, 7:30 a.m. Updated with revised weekend projections.