‘Navalny’ surges to first place in Oscars predictions for Best Documentary Feature
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
Much like its subject, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the nonfiction thriller “Navalny” started off as an underdog in our Oscar predictions for Best Documentary Feature. But after key wins at precursor awards ceremonies, it has risen to the top of the odds, which are calculated based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. Do you agree that it will prevail on March 12? Scroll down to see the graph that illustrates how quickly the film has climbed.
Going into the Oscar nominations, “Navalny” actually ranked fourth in our predictions behind front-runner “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” as well as “All That Breathes” and “Fire of Love.” All four of them ended up with nominations, along with surprise contender “A House Made of Splinters.” Then in the winners round it rose to third place, and it stayed there until as recently as February 26. So what changed?
More from GoldDerby
A week earlier, on February 19, “Navalny” won the BAFTA Award for Best Documentary Feature. And then on February 25 “Navalny” won the Producers Guild Award. Just how crucial were those two victories? Well, the BAFTAs and Oscars often disagree about their favorite documentary, but they’ve been in sync for three of the last four years.
The PGA has an even stronger track record when it comes to Oscars. When the PGA winner is nominated at the Oscars, it almost always wins. The sole exception was the very first PGA-winning doc, Michael Moore‘s “Sicko” (2007), which was nominated by the academy but lost to “Taxi to the Dark Side.” So that bodes well for “Navalny,” to say the least.
It’s also an incredibly timely documentary. “Navalny” follows its title dissident as he fights against — and is nearly assassinated by — the government of autocrat Vladimir Putin. The documentary opened in theaters just a couple of months after Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And Oscar voting took place not long after the anniversary of that conflict. Voting for it could thus serve as a symbolic expression of solidarity with those who oppose Putin.
Something similar happened a few years ago when “Icarus” (2017) won the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. That film covered the widespread doping of Russian athletes at a time when Russia was in the public eye for interfering with the US presidential election a few months earlier in November 2016. Could current events influence this year’s contest as well?
PREDICTthe 2023 Oscar winners through March 12
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
Best of GoldDerby
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
