National Hurricane Center watching system off Florida, 4 tropical waves
Residents and vacationers from Florida to the Carolinas should be prepared for what could be a stormy holiday weekend.
A system of low pressure off Florida continues to show a low chance for tropical development, but it is expected to bring heavy rainfall, gusty winds, dangerous surf, and rip currents along portions of the southeastern United States through the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather forecasters said the "area of disturbed weather" stretches from northern Florida to North Carolina.
The system is moving generally northward and expected to move inland over the Carolinas late Saturday or Sunday, according to the Hurricane Center.
NOAA forecast for 2023: NOAA predicts 'near normal' hurricane season with 12-17 named storms and 5-9 hurricanes
WeatherTiger: 2023 hurricane season will be 'once-in-a-generation slugfest' between tropical forces
Will system off coast of Florida strengthen into a tropical depression or tropical storm?
The system is unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves north along the coast, according to NHC forecasters.
While water temperatures are warm enough to support a tropical storm, AccuWeather forecasters agree chances are slim.
However, if the system spends enough time over water, it is possible.
Hurricane hacks: These 5 TikToks can help you prepare for hurricane season
"It sometimes takes two to three days for a complex of thunderstorms to develop into a tropical system," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. The most likely scenario is that the system will move quickly inland.
The first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be Arlene.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. May 26:
What's out there and where are they?
System off Florida: A broad non-tropical area of low pressure is located east of the northeastern coast of Florida. That system, along with another off the coast of the southeastern United States, are producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical wave 1: A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa. It's located southeast of Cabo Verde off Sierra Leone. Tracking it? 15W between 02N and 12N.
Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is located southwest of Cabo Verde. It's moving west at about 13 mph. If you'd like to track it, it's at 26W and 12N.
Tropical wave 3: A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is located east of Barbados. It's moving west at 13 mph. Track it at 43W and extending south from 12N.
Tropical wave 4: Another tropical wave is located east of Grenada and Barbados, farther east than tropical wave 3. It's also moving west at 13 mph. Track it at 57W and extending south from 12N into Suriname.
How likely is the system off Florida to strengthen?
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
The system of low pressure is forecast to bring gusty winds, dangerous surf, and rip currents along portions of the southeastern United States through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is expected in portions of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center. Hazardous marine conditions are expected over the coastal and offshore waters where gale and storm warnings are in effect.
The worst conditions will occur where the circulation associated with the system comes onshore, which is expected along a swath stretching from Georgia to the Carolinas. Gusts ranging from 30 to 50 mph could buffet eastern parts of the Carolinas, and power outages are possible. Some thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts and even a waterspout near coastal waters, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Rain could affect the Coca-Cola 600 race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Sunday night, according to AccuWeather.
Hurricane trackers: Stay prepared for the 2023 hurricane season with one of these five hurricane tracker apps
Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely, along with frequent and strong rip currents, from southern New Jersey to Northeast Florida.
A combination of weather systems could bring 10- to 13-foot seas to Northeast Florida starting this afternoon and spreading south to near Cape Canaveral through Saturday afternoon, according to the Hurricane Center. Gale-force winds will impact Northeast Florida this afternoon through Saturday morning. Seas will build even higher and peak at 15 to 19 feet during the strongest winds. Winds and seas are expected to decrease Saturday night into Sunday as the system moves north.
If the storm does not stall in the Southeast, weather should improve over much of Florida and southern Georgia by Memorial Day. Surf conditions will likely ease, as well.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued for your area
If you can't see any local weather warnings here, you'll need to open this story in a web browser.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look at our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropics watch: NHC tracking system off Florida, 4 tropical waves
