‘Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One’ Seeing $78M 5-Day US, $240M WW: Why Sequel Is In Better Position Than ‘Indy’ – Box Office Update
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UPDATE SATURDAY AM: In the wake of the older-skewing, very expensive Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny stumbling at the box office with an $83.8M Friday-Tuesday domestic start, sources have called upon me to evaluate a similarly priced, older dude franchise sequel at around $300M. That’s this weekend’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, which, analyzed by the same measuring stick — particularly given the pic’s U.S./Canada 5-day of $78M — is well-below the $90M tracking Paramount was hoping for. Three-day here is $54.2M.
But here is the root of the root, and the bud of the bud, and that is Dead Reckoning and Dial of Destiny are not the same. Already, in its running global take of $122.2M through yesterday, Dead Reckoning is on the verge of overtaking the $130M global start of Indy.
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In fact, Dead Reckoning is bound to have the upper hand in the long-run, particularly on a global basis.
Yes, I just said that.
Dead Reckoning‘s demos are very similar to Dial of Destiny: 55+ was both their largest quad (Mission at 22%, Indy at 25%), Men over 25 are dominant in the turnout (respectively 46%, 43%), the prime moviegoing demo of 18-34 is just over a third for both (37%, 36%), and so on.
However, the reviews and audiences exits on Dead Reckoning bury Dial of Destiny. In updated Friday night PostTrak exits, Dead Reckoning gets 5 stars and 90% from audiences (Indy only received 4 stars and 79%), with men/women at 62% / 38% grading it 90% / 89% (Indy‘s grades for both were 74% and 85%). Deal with it, Disney: The ball was dropped quality wise on Dial of Destiny, and the sequel is suffering with critics and fans. We expect more from Lucasfilm, especially on a legacy finale.
Grosses went down between Indiana Jones movies, while grosses went up on Mission movies: Dead Reckoning could see a 5-day franchise record still, besting Mission: Imposible II’s $78.8M. The Cruise feature is still in its prime; keep reading.
Said one rival studio executive source this AM, “With these reviews and PostTrak numbers, I would expect this one to leg out through summer — these are strong numbers.”
If anything, the Tom Cruise sequel has all the mojo to not only outstrip Indy domestically, but the potential to make significantly more overseas — even if China doesn’t pull in a $100M+ gross like it did on Mission: Impossible – Fallout, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol.
Cruise’s previous three Mission movies generated over 70% of their global box office abroad. Indy is not going to do that. As we told you yesterday, the global outlook for Dead Reckoning is still around $240M; As of last weekend, Indy‘s global was slightly more domestic than foreign, 51% to 49%.
But wait a second, wait a second — wasn’t Dead Reckoning suppose to open to $90M over five days? This is surely an upset, no? The reality of the situation here stateside is that there isn’t any Top Gun: Maverick halo effect. That long-awaited sequel brought out non-moviegoers, people who haven’t been to the movies in years. Dead Reckoning is bringing its finite, older-skewing fanbase. As a Mission movie, Dead Reckoning‘s start here isn’t below its franchise expectations.
Hold on again – doesn’t Dead Reckoning stand to lose as much money as Dial of Destiny? Both cost about the same. What’s clear is that the industry is still releasing over-budgeted movies that were challenged by Covid stops; Dead Reckoning being one of the first movies to shut down because of the pandemic in Italy back in early 2020. The box office to profit measure for some of these tentpoles is still a hurdle, and will continue to be for a while. These movies weren’t made under normal circumstances, and Disney and Paramount both invested heavily in prime IP under the notion that they would deliver, and it’s better to perfect and avoid scaling back costs. Who doesn’t want to invest more on a trusted franchise sequel, especially a global star who delivered one of the highest-grossing movies of last year in Top Gun: Maverick?
However, as we said above — the word of mouth on Dead Reckoning will empower it, even with Barbie next weekend potentially posting Little Mermaid numbers ($95M+ 3-day) and adult-leaning Oppenheimer in the mix, and that buzz will carry the Cruise film through all ancillaries.
Let’s step back again and assess — Dead Reckoning is posting a lower 3-day and 5-day next to Dial of Destiny. Why is that? The notion is that with Dead Reckoning having all the goods in great reviews and audience exits, there was no reason for it to debut on a Wednesday stateside. The movie could have gone on Friday and saw a $78M 3-day, which would have been a record opening for the Cruise series. I was under the impression that the movie, at a long running time of 2 hours and 43 minutes, would benefit from a 5-day launch, given that there’s fewer showtimes at cinemas, and it would propel word of mouth. However, another source splashed water in my face and reminded me that the exhibition infrastructure as it is has the capacity and the power to deliver enormous box office grosses: Hello, Avengers: Endgame was a three-hour movie and holds the opening domestic box office record opening with $357.1M.
Like Indy, could Mission have expanded to a younger audience? Of course, and Cruise might want to consider hiring some popular YA stars for future sequels. Imagine the juiced gross on a Mission: Impossible if Harry Styles or Zendaya were part of the ensemble.
The Cruise sequel is playing strongest in the East, West & Mountain. Meanwhile, red state fave Sound of Freedom is throwing off those percentages, as it’s so strong in the middle of the country. Meanwhile, 53% of Sound of Freedom‘s $23.6M second weekend (up a massive 20%) is coming from the South, South Central, and Midwest (parts of the country that do very well with Cruise movies).
PLFs and Imax screens are driving 42% of Dead Reckoning‘s business to date.
In 13 days, Sound of Freedom, with $82M, will have made more than Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s lifetime domestic of $77.1M. Of course, both movies appeal to polar opposites. But it’s interesting to note their comparison, as both movies were unexpected outliers that were unforeseen in their success at the B.O.
This movie is stoking the Fox News Channel crowd to get out to the movies, and is appealing to them in its subject of child-trafficking, something which some right wingers believe is the fault of the left. The movie’s success is a testament to its star, title, and release date: It headlines Jesus (Jim Caviezel from Passion of the Christ), and the distributor, Angels Studios, was adamant that the movie open on July 4. Why? The picture has the word “Freedom” in the title, and that says something to the red state crowd, especially on the Day of Independence.
Total weekend box office is an estimated $130.3M from all titles, off 2% from a year ago, when Thor: Love and Thunder led the box office in its second weekend, and +3% from pre-pandemic 2019, when Spider-Man: Far From Home held No. 1 in its second frame.
1.) Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Par) 4,327 theaters, Fri $16.55M, 3-day $54.2M, 5-day $78M/Wk 1
2.) Sound of Freedom (Angel) 3,265 (+413) theaters, Fri $7M (+35%), 3-day $23.6M (+20%), Total $82M/Wk 2
3.) Insidous: The Red Door (Sony/Blum) 3,188 theaters Fri $4.15M (-73%), 3-day $12.65M (-61%)/Total $57.7M/Wk 2
4.)Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Dis) 3,865 (-735) theaters, Fri $3.3M (-57%) 3-day $11.4M (-58%)/Total $144.7M/Wk 3
5.) Elemental (Dis) 3,235 (-205) theaters, Fri $2.6M (-13%) 3-day $8.5M (-15%), Total $125M/Wk 5
6.) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 2,577 (-446) theaters, Fri $1.72M (-25%) 3-day $5.7M (-29%) Total $368.4M /Wk 7
7.) Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Par) 2,041 (-434) theaters, Fri $930K (-33%) 3-day $3.44M (-33%) Total $152.7M/Wk 6
8.) No Hard Feelings (Sony) 2,053 (-633) theaters, Fri $1M (-40%) 3-day $3.16M (-41%), Total $46.4M /Wk 4
9.) Joy Ride (LG) 2,820 theaters, Fri $770K (-71%) 3-day $2.44M (-58%)/Total $10.4M/Wk 2
10.) The Little Mermaid (Dis) 1,615 (-465) theaters, Fri $675K (-38%) 3-day $2.2M (-40%) Total $293.7M/ Wk 8
UPDATE FRIDAY PM: As we told you, it’s all about global when it comes to the opening of Paramount/Skydance’s Tom Cruise sequel Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and we hear a $240 million global start is being forecasted right now. Stateside, the 5-day is $76M after what is expected to be a $16M Friday and $52.2M 3-day at 4,327 theaters. Offshore opening will be $164M.
Anything north of a $78.8M 5-day domestic is an opening record for the franchise stateside; currently, that benchmark is owned by the Wednesday-through-Sunday start of 2000’s Mission: Impossible II. (Deadline’s Nancy Tartaglione will have more details on foreign later this weekend.) China is eyeing a $27M-$30M weekend, not too shabby for a Hollywood film now. We’ll take it. The last Mission: Impossible, 2018’s Fallout, posted a $76.1M in the PRC (not accounting for inflation and currency swings); that was a much different time for Hollywood movies. Note Japan, a big Mission market, isn’t in this opening suite.
Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom continues to ring loudly at 3,265 theaters with a second Friday of $6M (+15%), a second weekend between $20M-$22.5M, and running cume that could reach $81M by EOD Sunday. This Jim Caviezel thriller is bound for a $100M-plus gross. Rivals are even betting substantially more.
Sony/Stage 6 Films/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Red Door is seeing a $4.35M Friday, -71%, with a second weekend of $13.5M, -59%, and running total by Sunday of $58.6M at 3,188 theaters.
Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, booked at 3,865 spots, is seeing a third Friday of $3.6M, -53%, and third weekend of $12.9M, -53%, and a running total by Sunday of $146.2M.
Disney/Pixar’s Elemental continues to hold in the top five with an estimated fifth weekend of $8.8M, a great -12% hold, and a running total of $125.3M. That will fire it past Lightyear‘s final domestic of $118.3M. Friday is estimated to be around $2.5M at 3,235 theaters.
UPDATE, FRIDAY AM: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One saw $8.3 million million on Thursday, repping a 47% decline from the Wednesday opening plus previews of $15.5M. The two-day total for the Paramount/Skydance feature is $23.8M from 4,049 theaters. Hopefully this film spikes today. I mean, it will spike today, it’s just by how much given that A CinemaScore and 4 1/2 stars and 88% on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak. Guys at 65% gave the movie its best grades at 90%. Women at 35% weren’t that far behind at 86%.
A $90M five-day total seems unlikely, with rivals spotting $50M over three days and $73M over five. We’ll dissect what’s up here on this near-$300M production as the numbers become clearer; the feature went through several Covid delays. Right now M:I‘s box office looks similar to that of Paramount’s 2017 Transformers: The Last Knight, which was another long movie at 2 hours and 34 minutes that opened on Wednesday to $15.6M and Thursday to $8.1M for a two-day of $23.7M. However, that was largely a younger-guy-skewing feature versus the 74% over 25 here; and it was a B+ picture and not one of the fan-faves for the robots-in-disguise series. Last Knight‘s first Friday was $13.7M.
Last night’s 7 p.m. Dolby auditorium show for Dead Reckoning at the AMC Porter Ranch (30 minutes north of Los Angeles, and where Nicole Kidman shot the exhib’s commercial) was nearly sold out. What that exemplifies for these big tentpoles is that we’re under-screened when it comes to premium-format auditoriums. There’s no reason why a big star like Tom Cruise should have to go around asking for more PLF screens on a movie for which he’s already doing 360-degree press; exhibition has to build more of them if we’re going to expand the marketplace. Mission is expected to have its grab of PLFs next weekend despite Universal’s three-hour Christopher Nolan epic Oppenheimer muscling in.
Speaking of publicity, especially at a time when there aren’t any late-night talk shows, Dead Reckoning had a ton of it. Cruise is becoming a rare movie star, together with Dwayne Johnson, who knows how to go all out in making a movie a fire-breathing event and having the world know about it. I mean, this movie was promoted at two different CinemaCons, 2021 and 2022; there was the Rome premiere where the pic was shot including a mind-blowing chase scene; as well as multiple global stops by Cruise. RelishMix says that the social media universe reach for Dead Reckoning is at an awesome 529.9M across TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube views, which is ahead of Top Gun: Maverick (401.5 SMU/$126.7M opening), John Wick 4 (452.3M SMU/$73.8M opening) and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (296.4M/$60.3m opening).
Meanwhile, Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom continues to wow. The pic posted daily middays of $4M+, out-pegging Sony/Stage 6 Films/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Red Door every day. The latter pic took No. 1 last weekend with $33M. On Thursday, Sound of Freedom grossed an estimated $4.5M, +4% over Wednesday. Pic’s last seven days grossed $36.5M for a running total of $58.5M. Angel Studios released a statement yesterday, squashing rumors that AMC has made it difficult for patrons to see the movie. That’s fake news, with the circuit selling more than 1 million tickets so far for the Jim Caviezel thriller. The pic is getting 450 theaters added to the current count of 2,852 theaters.
Red Door was third on Thursday with $2.5M, -1% from Wednesday and a first week of $45M at 3,188 locations.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny did $2.3M on Thursday at 4,600 theaters, even with Wednesday, for a second-week take of $38.6M and a running total of $133.3M.
Disney has fifth place with Elemental and a fourth Thursday of $1.6M, +6% from Wednesday, with a $17M fourth week; its running total is $116.5M at 3,440 theaters. Get a load of this: Despite the Pixar movie opening lower than Lightyear, $29.6M to $50.5M, it’s going to outstrip that Toy Story spinoff’s final domestic total of $118.3M.
UPDATED THURSDAY AM: Paramount reported $15.5M for the Wednesday opening day of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, which includes previews. The studio isn’t reporting a 3 and 5-day projection as those type of forecasts can be wonky and it ultimately boils down to Friday business.
Rivals, however, are betting at this point in time that Dead Reckoning isn’t as big as the $90M tracking purported it to be. More like $47M for the 3-day and $70.5M per industry estimates right now. The worry here is if this is Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny all over again with a very expensive film near $300M production cost, long-running time and older dude skewing franchise falling short of expectations. There’s a chance on a five-day basis, this could still be a franchise record start: Mission: Impossible II has the best five-day opening for the Cruise series at $78.8M.
With a running time of 2 hours and 43 minutes, it’s clear that Dead Reckoning is appointment viewing for moviegoers like Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. However, it’s a fast 2 hours and 43 minutes given the awesome action set pieces in the movie.
Last night on Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak, Dead Reckoning looked similar to Indy‘s Thursday night demos with 34% over 45, 74% over 25 and heavily male at 65%.
However, here’s the box office viagra that Ethan Hunt has over Indiana Jones, and hopefully this will bode well in spreading word of mouth, especially with the younger demos: Dead Reckoning has an A CinemaScore to Dial of Destiny‘s B+. That’s the second A for a Mission movie after 2018’s Fallout. The franchise counts three A- grades for Rogue Nation, Mission Impossible III and Ghost Protocol. Mission: Impossible did B+ while Mission: Impossible II got a B. It’s also one of the best reviewed Missions of all-time at 96% certified fresh to Fallout‘s 97% certified fresh. In addition, Mission‘s edge over Indy is that Cruise and the franchise are more of a draw at the overseas boxoffice than the Lucasfilm IP (which isn’t even known in certain big markets like China). Korea and Japan are expected to be big for Dead Reckoning. It’s overseas in the end that could possibly bail this very pricey Mission movie out. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opened to $130M WW, with a domestic 3-day of $60.3M. The Friday-Tuesday five day was $83.8M. Current global on the Lucasfilm franchise finale is north of $256M WW.
On social media, RelishMix spots, “Convo tone on Dead Reckoning runs positive as fans acknowledge Tom Cruise’s tireless tenacity as Hollywood’s modern daredevil, proclaiming he’s ‘hauling modern cinema on his back.’ Paired with filmmaker Christoper McQuarrie’s daring direction and newcomer Hayley Atwell, some already herald it as potentially ‘the best action movie of all time.’ This series is being elevated above competitors, notably Fast X and The Fast and Furious franchise, with fans assertively favoring its consistently epic entries — ‘This franchise is the movie embodiment of aged fine wine.’ Even with a chorus of praise, a handful of viewers yearn for fresh elements, countering the franchise’s predictable beats. Yet, the Mission: Impossible saga continues its powerful performance, captivating its loyal audience and igniting anticipation for this new chapter.”
UPDATED WEDNESDAY PM: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One‘s opening day is looking like $16 million, which includes the $7M in previews.
Yes, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Mission: Impossible – Fallout both posted first days in the $22M-$23M range, but those were Fridays. This is about the long play of the movie, and Tom Cruise fare is back-loaded. The reason why this pic is going for the five-day record is due to its length, at 2 hours and 43 minutes. It’s expected, especially with a current great Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 94%, to get to $90M, a franchise record opening, by Sunday. Again, it’s still early. These numbers could go up.
Sound of Freedom is looking at second place with $3.9M and a running total of $53.4M. That daily gross is holding steady with Monday and Tuesday. Very impressive.
UPDATE AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One came in at the high end of expectations with $7M in previews. Pic was booked at 3,300 locations and hikes its theater count up to 4,000-plus today including Imax and PLF.
I’m told that the fan PLF money from Monday shows isn’t included in that $7M figure. The previous chapter, Mission: Impossible – Fallout posted Thursday previews of $6M, a record for the franchise. Next to other summer comps, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny posted $7.2M in previews.
The Rotten Tomatoes audience score out of the gate after previews is 94%.
Tom Cruise and filmmaker Christopher McQuarrie have been touring the film; the duo making stops in Toronto, Atlanta, Miami, and Washington DC, greeting fans at cinemas.
In early estimates this morning, Angel Studio’ Jim Caviezel thriller Sound of Freedom won another weekday with $4M yesterday, beating Sony/Blumhouse/Stage 6 Films’ Insidious: The Red Door which had $3.48M. Both pics had even holds from Monday percent-wise. Sound of Freedom raises its running total to $49.7M in its eight-day run. Wow. It’s expected that the pic will post a -30% ease in weekend 2 with around $13M-$14M after a $19.6M reported 3-day last week. Red Door‘s five day run rises to $40M.
EXCLUSIVE: Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part One is looking at $6M-$7M in previews so far, which is bound to be higher than the Thursday previews of the last Mission Impossible – Fallout back in 2018 which did $6M. This is according to sources. The figures we’re seeing now could go higher or lower.
Dead Reckoning previews began at 2PM today, however, I hear there were PLF fan screenings on Monday and that handful of bucks is accounted for in the estimate.
Dead Reckoning is one of the longer films of the summer at 2 hours and 43 minutes with credits. Not as long as Oppenheimer‘s 3 hours (opening on July 21), but longer than Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2 hours and 34 minutes) and The Flash (2 hours and 24 minutes). However, the action is unlike anything any Mission Impossible or Fast and Furious movie has ever delivered before. Seriously, that Rome, Italy car chase will make you want to see the movie again. Paramount is going for a Mission:Impossible franchise five-day record here with a Wednesday start, which is smart given this sequel’s length and the limited amount of showtimes exhibitors can program. Disney did not execute a Wednesday start with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, another older dude skewing film, the studio opting for a Friday launch and seeing $60.3M over three days before July 4.
The best reviewed Mission: Impossible of all-time at 98% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Dead Reckoning is projected to have a $90M five-day stateside, $250M+ worldwide.
Last year, the decades long-awaited sequel Top Gun: Maverick posted the best box office results of Cruise’s career with $19.3M in U.S. previews, $126.7M domestic opening, and $256.4M WW start. The pic finaled at $718.7M domestic (No. 1 pic for 2023 domestic), $1.49 billion WW (No 2 global for 2023 after Avatar: The Way of Water).
Mission: Impossible – Fallout opened to $61.2M domestic, and legged out to $220.1M domestic, and $791.6M WW. Even if Mission comes up short this weekend, remember, Cruise’s movies are always backloaded at the B.O.
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