May 2023 box office preview: Summer movie season kicks off with ‘Guardians 3,’ ‘Fast X,’ ‘Little Mermaid’

Edward Douglas
·9 min read
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May kicks off the annual summer movie season where studios will release some of their biggest “tentpole” flicks, with this summer being particularly important for the full recovery of the box office. And yet, oddly, there are only three prospective blockbusters this month with many smaller films padding things out. Read on for Gold Derby’s May 2023 box office preview.

“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel/Disney) – May 5

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James Gunn marks the finale of his MCU trilogy with the group he introduced in 2014’s “Guardians of the Galaxy,” featuring Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldañha, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Pom Klementieff and the voices of Vin Diesel and Bradley Cooper. Joining the finale is Will Poulter as Adam Warlock and Chukwudi Iwuji (“Peacemaker”) as The High Evolutionary, two major Marvel Comics cosmic characters, although it feels like this will be a standalone finale, rather than tying into the rest of the MCU. These Marvel properties really can go any which way at this point with some concern about the glut of superhero movies (and Disney+ shows) diluting the Marvel band and leading to lower quality releases. I’ll have more about this in next week’s weekend preview, but for now, this is looking likely to kick off the summer with $140 million or more.

Fast X
Fast X

“Fast X” (Universal) – May 19

Another family that’s slowly bringing their story to a close is what’s continuing to be one of the more successful action franchises with Vin Diesel still leading a group that’s getting bigger with each movie. This one is joined by Jason Momoa and Brie Larson, two of the latest individuals trying to get revenge against the street racers, and just about everyone else from previous editions are back, except for Dwayne Johnson. Starting with 2009’s “Fast & Furious,” these films have generally done well enough to open with $70 million or more, with 2015’s “Furious 7” being the biggest opener with $147.2 million. Things are definitely building up with each installment, which should allow this one to open north of $90 million, as well.

The Little Mermaid
The Little Mermaid

“The Little Mermaid” (Disney) – May 26

Over the past decade and a half, Disney has been revisiting and reinventing many of its animated classics, although recently, many of them have started to go straight to the Disney+ streaming service (a la the recent “Peter Pan & Wendy”). Directed by Rob Marshall (“Chicago,” “Into the Woods”), this live action version of the 1989 animated megahit that turned things around for the Mouse House stars newcomer Halle Bailey as Ariel with Melissa McCarthy playing Ursula and Oscar-winner Javier Bardem as King Triton. This is likely to be the biggest movie for women and girls of all ages in May, which should allow it to open over Memorial Day weekend with $125 million or more over the four-day holiday.

SEE 2023 box office hits: Every movie that made more than $100 million

It’s hard to believe those three movies above will be the biggest releases for the month, although there are going to be plenty of other wide releases trying (and mostly failing) to make a mark against those blockbusters.

“Book Club: The Next Chapter” (Focus Features) – May 12

The sequel to the 2018 comedy that brought together Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen and Mary Steenburgen is acting as counter-programming against the second weekend of “Guardians,” hoping to bring in some of the same older women business as “80 for Brady” (also starring Fonda), and bolstered by a release over Mother’s Day weekend. The original entry grossed $68.6 million after opening with $13.5 million, which doesn’t sound great, but it actually was better than “80 for Brady.” This one brings the ladies to Italy, and it will probably open around the same place, maybe a little higher, and we’ll have to see how it holds up over the busier month of June.

“About My Father” (Lionsgate) – May 26

After appearing in a number of recent features, including Ray Romano‘s “Somewhere in Queens” and “Spinning Gold” (as well as providing his voice for “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”), comedian Sebastian Maniscalco finally gets his own, this one starring Robert De Niro as a version of the comic’s father. The story involves Maniscalco planning to propose to his girlfriend, but his old-school Italian immigrant father Salvo decides to go along. This could end up acting as Memorial Day counter-programming to “The Little Mermaid,” though comedian driven comedies have been touch and go, going by last year’s Billy Eichner project “Bros” and Jo Koy‘s “Easter Sunday,” neither which did particularly well.

“Hypnotic” (Ketchup) – May 12

Filmmaker Robert Rodriguez returns with this high-concept thriller starring Ben Affleck and Alice Braga, with Affleck playing a detective investigating his missing daughter and uncovering a secret government program. The movie will even get a premiere at Cannes before its theatrical release, although it’s being marketed more based on Affleck (fresh off his hit “Air”), and it’s hard to imagine it will open with more than $10 million.

“Kandahar” (Open Road) – May 26

Gerard Butler stars in his third film directed by Ric Roman Waugh (“Angel Has Fallen”), this one about his CIA operative and his translator who flee from special forces in Afghanistan after exposing a covert mission. Yes, it does sound a lot like the recent “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant,” which could either help or hinder a movie that probably wasn’t going to open over $10 million even with those similarities.

“The Machine” (Sony) – May 26

Another oddball comedy featuring a stand-up comic being released over Memorial Day weekend is this comedy from Bert Kreischer, which also involves him and his father, who are kidnapped by Russians who Bert wronged during a drunken college semester abroad. It’s very odd that this would be released the same weekend as “About My Father,” and it would be wise for it to get moved until later in the summer.

“Knights of the Zodiac” (Sony) – May 12

The anime “Saint Seiya Saga” is adapted into a live action film featuring Mackenyu, Famke Janssen, Mark Dacascos, Nick Stahl and Sean Bean, directed by Tomasz Baginski. Without knowing how wide this will go, it’s hard to determine how it might fare, but it will probably open in the $3 to 5 million range.

“Love Again” (Sony) – May 5

Released as counter-programming to “Guardians” is this high-concept romcom, starring Priyanka Chopra Jonas as a woman dealing with her fiancé’s death by sending romantic texts to his old cell phone number, and then forming a bond with the man who now has that number, played by Sam Heughan. It also stars pop icon Celine Dion as herself, but that’s not likely to help this one open with more than $4 to 6 million.

“You Hurt My Feelings” (A24) – May 26

Nicole Holofcener‘s new indie comedy premiered at Sundance to rave reviews, re-teaming her with Julia Louis Dreyfus, who plays a novelist whose marriage runs into problems when she learns what her husband really thinks of her book. It’s hard to tell how wide A24 might release this one, and if they can do better with this one than the last Holofcener/Dreyfus movie “Enough Said.”

SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums

There are a few limited releases this month, although at this point, many studios are giving their movies wider releases than they normally might, just because they can.

“The Starling Girl” (Bleecker Street) – May 12

Laurel Parmet‘s feature film directorial debut premiered at Sundance, starring Eliza Scanlen as Jem Starling, a teenager within a Christian fundamentalist community, who has difficulties with her faith when she falls for her church’s charismatic youth pastor Owen (Lewis Pullman).

“Blackberry” (IFC Films) – May 12

Matt Johnson‘s comedy stars Jay Baruchel and Glenn Howerton as Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie, the men who helped invent the very first smartphone.

“It Ain’t Over” (Sony Pictures Classics) – May 12

Sean Mullins’ documentary about baseball Hall-of-Famer Yogi Berra includes interviews with his granddaughter and many former members of the New York Yankees, for whom he played.

“Sanctuary” (NEON) – May 19

Margaret Qualley and Christopher Abbott star in this two-handed thriller from Zachary Wigon (“The Heart Machine”) about a guy about to become CEO of a billion-dollar company after his father’s death, with Qualley playing the dominatrix trying to blackmail him.

“Robots” (NEON) – May 19

Shailene Woodley and Jack Whitehall star as a womanizer and a gold digger whose robot doubles have run away together in this sci-fi rom-com from directors Anthony Hines (co-writer of “Borat”) and Casper Christensen (“Klown”).

“Master Gardner” (Magnolia) – May 19

Oscar-nominated filmmaker Paul Schrader returns with this drama starring Joel Edgerton as Narvel Roth, a horticulturist who works at the Gracewood Gardens, owned by Sigourney Weaver‘s Mrs. Haverhill, who asks Narvel to take on her great-niece Maya (Quintessa Swindell) as his apprentice.

“Monica” (IFC Films) – May 19

Trace Lysette and Patricia Clarkson star in Andrea Pallaoro‘s drama with Lysette playing the title character, a woman who returns home after a long time to deal with her past and reconnect with her mother.

“A Cow Who Sang a Song Into the Future” (Kino Lorber) – May 19

Deemed an “eco fable,” the debut feature from Chilean filmmaker Francisca Alegría stars Mia Maestro (“The Motorcycle Diaries”) in a story about a Chilean river where fish are dying but a long-dead woman named Magdalena reappears gasping for air, bringing back dark secrets.

“Shin Kamen Rider” (Fathom Events) – May 31

Following the release of “Shin Godzilla” and “Shin Ultraman,” Japanese filmmaker Hideaki Anno reboots the popular anime series as a live action movie to celebrate its 50th anniversary.

That’s only the first month of the summer movie season with three more months to go, and you can check our weekly weekend previews and box office recaps to see how they all do.

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