‘The Marvels’ Tracking for $75M-$80M Domestic Debut in Latest Test of Box Office Superhero Fatigue

Female-frontedThe Marvels is tracking to open in the $75 million to $80 million range in the latest test of box office superhero fatigue. It launches Nov. 10.

The 33rd installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is a sequel to the 2019 Brie Larson-starrer Captain Marvel, which opened to $153.4 million in North America, not adjusted for inflation. Tracking for The Marvels varies widely depending upon the research firm; NRG has it at $72 million to $88 million, while The Quorum thinks $80 million to $90 million.

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The superhero film is unique in that it stars three female leads. And it was directed by Nia DaCosta, who is the first Black woman to direct a Marvel Studios movie, as well as the youngest director of an MCU film.

The last title from Marvel Studios’ that didn’t open to $70 million or more was Ant-Man in 2015 ($57.2 million). The majority of MCU movies (25 of them) have opened to $100 million or more domestically, with eight movies coming in at $150 million or higher.

There’s extra pressure on exhibitors for The Marvels to do well after Dune: Part II abandoned its Nov. 2 release date because of the ongoing actors strike and the accompanying prohibition on talent doing any promotion. Marvel Studios and Disney decided to keep The Marvels on its date but had hoped the strike would end in time for the cast to do publicity.

There’s also ongoing concern about superhero fatigue. DC has been hit the hardest, highlighted by The Flash bombing this summer after opening to $55 million domestically. A major exception to any fatigue was Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. The threequel debuted to $106 million domestically on its way to grossing $845.6 million globally, just behind the second film ($863.7 million).

In the new movie, Larson is joined by Iman Vellani, the breakout star of the Disney+ series Ms. Marvel, as well as Teyonah Parris as the grown-up version of Captain Marvel character Monica Rambeau. The actor made her Marvel debut with WandaVision, which counted The Marvels screenwriter Megan McDonnell among its writers.

The Marvels finds the heroes linked in a quite inconvenient way: Any time one of them uses their powers, they switch locations with one another, as was teased in the season finale of Ms. Marvel last year.

Gary Lewis, Park Seo-joon, Zenobia Shroff, Mohan Kapur and Saagar Shaikh also star in The Marvels.

Oct. 19, 11 a.m.: Updated with revised projections.

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