Lily Gladstone overtakes Emma Stone to become official Oscar front-runner for Best Actress
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She’s been inching her way up for months, but now it’s official: Lily Gladstone is the front-runner for Best Actress at the Oscars for her killer performance in “Killers of the Flower Moon” as an Osage woman whose family is under siege from white settlers who want their oil money. She just passed Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) in the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. Not bad for someone who was thought to be a strong contender for Best Supporting Actress earlier in the season.
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It’s so close between Gladstone and Stone that both women get the same 18/5 odds, but if you dig into those odds you’ll see where Gladstone has built her advantage. As of this writing she’s backed by 16 out of 25 Expert journalists, seven out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 11 of our Top 24 Users and 14 of our All-Star Top 24. Compare that to Stone, who is favored by eight Experts, four Editors, nine Top Users and nine All-Stars. As you can see, Gladstone leads with every group. She even has a slight edge with the everyday Users who make up our largest predictions bloc: more than 3,000 are betting on her, with a little over 2,900 in Stone’s corner. (By the time you read this, some of these numbers might have shifted. Perhaps Gladstone will have expanded her lead.)
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All of this comes after both Gladstone and Stone won Golden Globes for their performances — Best Film Drama Actress for Gladstone, Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress for Stone — but Gladstone made an especially strong impression with her acceptance speech, where she acknowledged the history being made for Native American actors, who have been mistreated throughout Hollywood history. At the Oscars, she would be the first indigenous woman to be nominated for and win Best Actress. It may be hard for voters to resist another opportunity to make history.
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