Can Lily Gladstone (‘Killers of the Flower Moon’) get her Best Actress momentum back at SAG Awards?

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It has been an up-and-down season for Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) on the awards scene. She was golden at the Golden Globes, winning Best Film Drama Actress for her performance as an Osage woman whose family and neighbors are targeted for their money by greedy white settlers. But then things took a turn and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) picked up momentum. Gladstone’s best hope of getting back to the top of our odds might be the SAG Awards, where she has a narrow lead in our odds.

After the Globes, where Gladstone and Stone both collected lead actress trophies, the two went head-to-head at the Critics Choice Awards. Stone won there, which surprised many of us awards pundits, but that wasn’t nearly as surprising as the setback Gladstone would face next: the “Flower Moon” star was snubbed entirely by the BAFTAs. That miss was especially significant because it’s one of two major industry acting awards whose voting membership overlaps with the motion picture academy that gives out Oscars. The other, of course, is the SAG Awards, which are decided by more than 100,000 industry pros who make up the SAG-AFTRA union.

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The good news for Gladstone is that the SAG Awards might be more consequential than the BAFTAs: last year all four SAG winners went on to win Oscars, while none of the BAFTA winners did. And according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing, Gladstone still has the advantage. But it’s neck-and-neck. Of the 12 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, six say Gladstone, five say Stone, and one is going out on a limb for Oscar-snubbed Margot Robbie (“Barbie”). It’s reversed, though, when you ask Gold Derby’s Editors: six predict Stone compared to five who predict Gladstone.

Our elite users are more decisive. Of our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG Awards for film, 14 are betting on Gladstone with eight betting on Stone. The margin is even greater among our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine multiple years’ prediction results: 17 of them back Gladstone, over six who are backing Stone. Still, this could plausibly go to either actress, and whatever the result, it could significantly change the complexion of this race.

PREDICTthe SAG Awards winners

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