Just how bad could it get for Louisville?
On the Yahoo Sports College Podcast, Dan Wetzel, Pete Thamel and SI's Pat Forde predict just how harsh the sanctions could be for the University of Louisville after the NCAA handed down the Notice of Allegations to the Cardinals athletic department. Could it get worse for the likes of Kansas?
Video Transcript
PETE THAMEL: I use the disclaimer I really have no idea because anyone who predicts they know what the NCAA is going to do is lying because the NCAA kind of makes it up as they go along, and we've seen this all the time. So this is my interpretation from looking at the notice and reading the notice of what will happen with Louisville and Pitino.
I think Louisville gets at least a one-year postseason ban, just from looking at the severity. There are six potential aggregating factors to the institution. That's a lot of aggregating factors. And then I went to, like, the matrix where you can look it up, and it seems like I would expect a one-year ban, and if they hammer them, they get a two-year ban. But by the time they rule on this thing, you know, basically in a calendar year-- like the NCAA just plays four corners, so nobody remembers why anyone's being charged anymore.
So that's my expectation. I'd be curious to hear what you think on that part. And then I think Pitino ends up getting a suspension of about a third of a season, but it won't be the season coming up because it just takes too long. These processes basically become-- what's the best way to phrase this? They are so slow that they're completely ineffective, and I just really feel like everyone feels like they can just delay, delay, delay, and then eventually things get softened and massaged and lawyered up.
So those are my two reads on what I think people are going to care about, the takeaways are from this. And I'd be curious, Pat, if you agree with those or think they may be more or less.
PAT FORDE: No, I think that's probably-- we're in the similar ballpark. You know, I think they-- I think there's a real chance they get a two-year postseason. I think there's a chance that Pitino gets a half season, but that's maximum, I would say. And to me-- that's what I wrote about. To me, this is going to be one of the most interesting NCAA cases in a long time because you've got a flagrant repeat violator in Louisville. I mean, agreeing to $100,000 buy while you are being hammered for the last scandal is pretty flagrant.
But they also literally got rid of everyone in a leadership position. They even threw out the whole dang board of trustees in addition to the president, in addition to the AD, in addition to the head coach, who was a Hall of Fame coach. And they threw out Pitino and Jurich within, like, 24 hours.
Now, as I believe Mr. Wetzel brought up, they didn't do anything after the first scandal. They want credit for reacting after the second scandal. But when you look around and you see Bill Self is still rolling at Kansas, Sean Miller is still rolling in Arizona, Will Wade is still rolling at LSU, Bruce Pearl is still rolling at Auburn, well, at least they did something. So if you run the NCAA, I guess I'm going to be really interested to see what they decide to do. Do they get credit for a housecleaning, or do they get crushed for being a repeat violator?
DAT WETZEL: But what is this-- what is Louisville's position on Brian Bowen Sr. saying that Kenny Johnson met him at a gas station for a meeting, then met him again in front of the apartment complex, Galt House Hotel, where a cop on disability is living, OK, and handing him $1,300 in cash and a car. Are they denying that, or are they saying that Brian Bowen Sr. lied under oath at the federal trial?
PAT FORDE: We don't know yet. We won't know for somewhere in the neighborhood of 90 days when they file their response. They said they weren't going to go into specifics. They said they would fight things that they thought were factually inaccurate or that they were not guilty of. We don't know which those are, you know, whether it's that or anything else that that was brought up. They said they will admit guilt where they believe they were guilty, and they will fight where they believe they should fight.
And, hey, as we've seen from North Carolina and from previous people who have been involved in this particular scandal-- NC State, Kansas-- the new modus operandi is fight, fight, fight, deny, deny, deny. So I would expect Louisville to take that approach, especially since they went along the last time and got smacked harder than they thought they were going to get after they went along.
DAT WETZEL: The playbook now is deny everything and get your local state-run media, whatever faction of it, to rally the fans and just go hardcore base.
PAT FORDE: Yep.
DAT WETZEL: And so I'm guessing that because to me--
PETE THAMEL: Is that how you become president?
DAT WETZEL: Well, it's one way. It works in politics. It works in a lot of things.
That's pretty much it. Get your fit-- get your-- get your whatever-- you know, whatever website you got that'll just repeat whatever.
PAT FORDE: Yep.
DAT WETZEL: Because to me, this all boils down to the Kenny Johnson, Brian Bowen Sr. meeting in the car because this is nine weeks-- nine weeks after they get hit with a 123 vacated victories and a stripping of the national championship and a five-game suspension for Pitino and four years of probation. Nine weeks later the associate head coach, who is therefore, for the first of those five games, the acting head coach, climbs into a car in an absolutely nut-case meeting with the recruit's dad and hands him cash.
Now you can say that Brian Bowen Sr. was lying under oath and was risking going to prison for this story, or you could say, man, this story sounds kind of believable because it doesn't even make-- it's so-- it's so detailed. I mean, there's just so much there, and it doesn't even-- it's not even how you would construct a payout, right? If you believe the associate head coach, I don't know how you get away with this thing. But I'm intrigued at how they would explain this away because I think they'll have to.
And I understand that some fans-- I understand what fans are about. Not even bagging on you for it. You're going to defend it and say no, didn't happen. Kenny would never. We would never here at Louisville. And so-- but it's going to be interesting to see how they do this.