Jesse Armstrong (‘Succession’) would make Emmys history with Best Drama Writing win for ‘Connor’s Wedding’

After securing the Emmy for Best Drama Writing for each of the first three seasons of HBO’s “Succession,” Jesse Armstrong can now make category history as the first writer to win for every season of the show, if he prevails this year for “Connor’s Wedding.” The first series to do so was “The Defenders” in 1962-1965, but that had multiple writers walk off with trophies.

The 2023 Emmy nominations were dominated by farewell and freshman series, as “Succession” will share the final season narrative with two episodes of “Better Call Saul,” while on the other side of the coin, “The Last of Us” predictably made it in along with some surprises from early newer shows like “Andor” and “Bad Sisters.” Rounding out the category is “The White Lotus” making its debut in the drama genre after succeeding in the Movie/Limited Series categories the year prior.

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With almost a new slate of competition, is it such a sure thing that Armstrong will win another writing trophy? Let’s take a closer look as all shows represent previous Emmy nominees for writing.

Here are Gold Derby’s current Best Drama Writing Emmy 2023 racetrack odds:

1. “Succession” (“Connor’s Wedding” by Jesse Armstrong) — 9/2 odds
2. “The White Lotus” (“Arrivederci” by Mike White) — 11/2 odds
3. “The Last Of Us” (“Long, Long Time” by Craig Mazin) — 11/2 odds
4. “Better Call Saul” (“Saul Gone” by Peter Gould) — 6/1 odds
5. “Better Call Saul” (“Point and Shoot” by Gordon Smith) — 13/2 odds
6. “Andor” (“One Way Out” by Beau Willimon) — 7/1 odds
7. “Bad Sisters” (“Pilot” by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett Baer) — 7/1 odds

SEE‘Succession’ director Mark Mylod reveals line cut from Roman’s final scene

Standout water cooler episodes are the theme here with four of the seven nominees are not pilots or season/series finales, an interesting figure since this category has rewarded an episode from that bracket 14 of the last 16 years. While “Succession” could’ve went with tradition and submitted their series finale, Armstrong opted for the third episode, “Connor’s Wedding,” featuring the most shocking twist of the series in Logan Roy’s (Brian Cox) death during his son Connor’s (Alan Ruck) wedding. The episode mostly took place in real time, as we saw all of the children’s authentic and anxiety-filled reactions to his passing over the phone.

Another memorable third episode that is on the family drama’s tail for the win is “Long, Long Time” from another HBO series, “The Last of Us.” The zombie post-apocalyptic drama based on the titular video game ironically does not display many creature types, instead showcasing a profound, tragic relationship between one-time appearances of Bill (Nick Offerman) and Frank (Murray Bartlett), with a heavily emotional examination spanning almost two decades. Craig Mazin is a previous winner for writing and producing an Emmy favorite, historical limited series “Chernobyl,” about the 1986 nuclear disaster and aftermath.

It is not surprising that the top three contenders of this category are all the previous winners, with Mike White finishing the HBO trifecta with “The White Lotus,” mentioned for the season finale “Arrivederci,” tying all the season’s ensemble characters’ storylines in dark satire fashion. The finale is a mixture of interpersonal relationships, financial debts and criminal bounties, a shooting spree, and a shocking death. White cleaned up last year in the limited series/movie category last year for the first season of the anthology, and the series exceeded expectations with the move to drama with 23 noms.

SEE2023 Gold Derby TV Awards ceremony: ‘Succession’ wins 7, ‘The Bear’ takes 4, Pedro Pascal is Performer of the Year [WATCH]

For the second time in this category, “Better Call Saul” has two episodes in contention, totaling eight episodes nominated for writing for the entire series. The only series finale in the bunch, “Saul Gone” ends on a somber note as Jimmy McGill (Bob Odenkirk) faces and accepts imprisonment for his crimes and shows his ex-wife Kim Wexler (Rhea Seehorn) who he really is inside. Co-creator Peter Gould was previously noticed in 2019 for co-writing the season 4 finale of the AMC legal crime drama. The other episode is the bookend midseason premiere “Point and Shoot,” all taking place in one night in the immediate aftermath of the unforeseen death of Howard Hamlin (Patrick Fabian) and the comprehensive plan to cover it up, while the other main characters deal with his shooter Lalo Salamanca (Tony Dalton). Gordon Smith has been a perennial contender in this category for the “Breaking Bad” prequel, with his fourth bid here.

Completing the category are two freshman shows that aired early in the eligibility period and whose nominations were not fully expected. One of those wonderful surprises was the 10th episode of the “Star Wars” prequel series, “Andor” on Disney+, titled “One Way Out.” It’s penned by Beau Willimon, a previous writing nominee in 2014 for “House of Cards.” The episode is filled with self-reflection and turning points for the stories as Cassian Andor (Diego Luna) and the rest of the work crew escape the prison, and features two juxtaposing monologues given by Kino Loy (Andy Serkis) and Luthen Rael (Stellan Skarsgård) that are passionate and heartbreaking with sacrifice.

Lastly, “Bad Sisters” has the only pilot represented in this category with “The Prick.” It flips between two timelines, exploring the mystery and circumstances of the sisters of the Garvey family and the death of one of their husbands as well as his life insurance investigation pending afterwards. Sharon Horgan is not a stranger for her shows getting into writing categories for their pilots as she was the sole nomination for “Catastrophe” in 2016 when she was cited alongside Rob Delaney. She now shares the bid with co-developers Dave Finkel and Brett Baer for the Apple TV+ black comedy thriller, which is the only series here that does not have a corresponding Best Drama Series mention.

So who will ultimately win Best Drama Writing? There is no reason to not predict Armstrong who has been undefeated in this category and “Succession” continues to lead the nomination totals with its highest tally this year at 27, with “The Last of Us” at 24. While those two series and “The White Lotus” being the top three nominated programs at the Emmys could make this an interesting three-way race, the final season of the family satire is hard to deny with all its praise and is expected to triumph in many other main categories more than the other two, including Best Drama Series, which has went hand in hand with the writing champ 12 of the last 16 years.

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