January 2024 box office preview: ‘Mean Girls’ musical will be month’s biggest movie by default

Edward Douglas
·7 min read
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Happy New Year! The first month of the year begins next week, and January means a few things in the world of movies: First off, there’s the Sundance Film Festival, where new movies and talent will be discovered that the rest of the world will have a chance to see over the rest of the year. There are also the Oscar nominations on January 23 which will become the focus of movie lovers for the next few weeks. There’s also the notorious myth that studios save all of their bad movies for January, which isn’t necessarily true, but one probably shouldn’t expect too many mega-blockbusters in the coming month. Read on for Gold Derby’s January 2024 box office preview.

“Mean Girls” (Paramount – Jan. 12)

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Twenty years after Tina Fey made her jump into movies with the high school comedy on which this musical is based, people are still trying to make “fetch” happen. Now, it comes in the form of a movie based on a Broadway musical, starring Australian actress Angourie Rice (“Spider-Man: Homecoming”), Ashley Park, Auli’i Cravalho (“Moana”), Jon Hamm and Jenna Fischer, with Fey and her “Saturday Night Live” co-star Tim Meadows reprising their roles from the 2004 movie. This is very likely to be the biggest movie of the month, opening over the extended four-day MLK Jr. weekend with $25 to $30 million or more, and probably worthy of repeat viewings if it’s as fun as the original movie or musical.

“Night Swim” (Universal – Jan. 5)

James Blum and James Wan reunite after this past year’s hit horror flick, “M3GAN,” to produce Bryce McGuire’s own horror film (expanded from an earlier short film) about a family led by Wyatt Russell (“Falcon and the Winter Soldier”) and Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) who buy a suburban house with a swimming pool … that’s haunted by a demonic entity! Yeah, it’s pretty high-concept, but the opening weekend of January has led to many hits including last year’s “M3GAN,” “Escape Room” and many more. This one could make anywhere between $18 million and $25 million, or even more based on how many teen and older moviegoers decide to go to the movies in their first week back at school.

SEE Grab the popcorn and sound off in our movie forums

“The Beekeeper” (MGM – Jan. 12)

Jason Statham is back in action with this high-concept revenge thriller directed by David Ayer (“Suicide Squad”) in which Statham plays Adam Clay, a former operative of a secret organization known as “Beekeepers,” who goes on a violent campaign of vengeance after the death of a friend. Statham appeared in four movies in 2023 with varying degrees of success, from “Fast X” ($146 million domestic) to “Meg 2: the Trench” ($82.6 million domestic) to “Expend4bles” ($16.7 million) and “Operation Fortune” ($6.5 million). “The Beekeeper” could offer some interesting counter-programming against “Mean Girls” and probably could make $11 to 12 million or more over the four-day holiday weekend.

“The Book of Clarence” (Sony – Jan. 12)

Another movie being released over MLK Jr. weekend is the latest from filmmaker Jeymes Samuel of the Netflix Western, “The Harder They Fall,” this time going back to Biblical times to tell the comedic tale of Clarence (Oscar nominee Lakeith Stanfield), a man fascinated by the rise of Jesus and His apostles. Clarence wants to create a better life for his wife and family by finding his own fame on that level. Also starring Benedict Cumberbatch, James McAvoy, Omar Sy, David Oyelowo, Alfre Woodard, Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Anna Diop, it will be an interesting release for this holiday weekend, but possibly less of a draw than it would have been opening in December. Maybe it will give us some idea how the planned “The Chosen” previews will do in February, but for now, it looks a bit like an action-packed “Life of Brian,” which was quite controversial for its time.

“Soul” (Disney/Pixar – Jan. 12)

COVID sidelined many theatrical release, but probably one of the biggest of them was the new movie from Pixar Animation head Pete Docter, which won the Oscar for Animated Feature as well as for its Original Score, but never actually was released into theaters. This will be the first of three monthly releases by Disney to give people across the nation to see these films in theaters, despite them having been on Disney+, some for years. This one hits theaters in an already busy weekend with lots of options, but it will be a good test to see if animation is ready for a comeback in theaters after the sad showing for Disney Animation’s “Wish.”

“I.S.S.” (Bleecker Street – Jan. 19)

Offering something a little different this month is a science fiction film from Gabriela Cowperthwaite (“Our Friend”) starring Oscar winner Ariana Debose (“West Side Story”) and Chris Messina as two astronauts on the International Space Station who experience a conflict with Russians as a conflict erupts on Earth. As I said, this is a very different movie, especially from Bleecker Street, who tends to make more adult-targeted fare, though this could end up being a decent-sized hit for them with $7 to 8 million opening during week 2 of “Mean Girls.”

“Origin” (NEON – Jan. 19)

Having already received a one-week Oscar qualifying run in December, Ava DuVernay’s drama based on Isabel Wilkerson’s non-fiction novel  “Caste,” stars Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor as author and journalist Wilkerson, who begins to formulate a thesis for her next book amidst tragedy. Having received mostly positive reviews since debuting at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), the film should be of interest to fans of Wilkerson’s best-selling book, though it’s not likely to have as wide an interest as Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction” (which is very likely to expand nationwide in January, too).

SEE Box office: All time domestic top-grossing movies

January offers a bunch of limited releases, including a few smaller genre films and a couple international features, some of which are their countries’ Oscar entries.

“Mayhem!” (IFC Films – Jan. 5)

Not to be confused with any of the other genre movies with the title “Mayhem,” this one is from French horror filmmaker Xavier Gens (“Frontier(s)”). This one’s about an ex-con who has to flee to Thailand when his past returns as he’s coerced back into a world of crime.

“The Bricklayer” (Vertical – Jan. 5)

Aaron Eckhart stars in this long-delayed action movie from director Renny Harlin (“Die Hard 2”) about a re-activated CIA agent called back into action after the agency is targeted. It also stars Nina Dobrev, Clifton Collins Jr, and Tim Blake Nelson.

“The Settlers” (MUBI – Jan. 12)

The Chilean Oscar submission, directed by Felipe Gálvez Haberle, takes place in 1901, involving three horsemen trekking across the nation to protect a rich landowner’s estate from the indigenous population.

“Housekeeping for Beginners” (Focus Features – Jan. 26)

The latest film from Macedonian-Australian filmmaker Goran Stolevski (“You Won’t Be Alone,” “Of an Age”) involves a queer Macedonian woman trying to raise her partner’s daughter, who is about to become a mother herself.

“Tótem” (Sideshow/Janus – Jan. 26)

Mexico’s Oscar submission, which recently made the International Feature shortlist, is the new movie from Lila Avilés (“The Chambermaid”) about a seven-year-old girl named Sol spending the day at her grandfather’s, preparing for a surprise party for her Dad, not realizing her world will change dramatically.

“Sometimes I Think About Dying” (Oscilloscope – Jan. 26)

Daisy Ridley stars in Rachel Lambert’s grim drama, which premiered at Sundance a year ago. She plays Fran, a dreary office worker who – you guessed it – often thinks about dying. The feel-good movie of never.

That’s it for this month’s preview, though check back every Wednesday for more info on the above in Gold Derby’s weekend preview, starting next week with “Night Swim.”

“Miller’s Girl” (Lionsgate – Jan. 26)

A late addition to the schedule is this young adult drama from filmmaker Jade Halley Bartlett, starring Martin Freeman (“The Hobbit”) and Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”) as a teacher and his student whose relationship is changed by a creative writing assignment.

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