Indie Spirit, ACE Eddie and Art Directors Guild Awards Predictions: ‘Dune,’ ‘King Richard,’ ‘The Lost Daughter’ Could Triumph
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Three awards ceremonies are taking place the weekend of March 5. On Saturday, a double dose of the Art Directors Guild (ADG) and American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE Eddies), and on Sunday, the Film Independent Spirit Awards, airing on IFC.
Paying special attention to ADG and ACE Eddies since there’s Oscar crossover, we’re expecting a couple of surprises at both. On the ADG side, “Dune” and “Nightmare Alley” should reign triumphant, but “Don’t Look Up” may overcome fellow Netflix property “The Lost Daughter.”
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At ACE Eddies, there’s a possible upset on the drama side in the favor of “King Richard’s” Pamela Martin, besting Joe Walker for “Dune.” On the other hand, “Tick, Tick … Boom!” is expected to sneak past “Licorice Pizza.”
What’s most interesting is that there is very little to no presence of the presumed Oscar frontrunners this weekend, including Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” and Sian Heder’s “CODA.”
In regards to the Indie Spirits, it could be an afternoon in Santa Monica that Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Lost Daughter” benefits from, likely picking up prizes for best feature, director and screenplay. One category to go out on a limb for is supporting actress, where Jessie Buckley is the only Oscar nominee in the lot. However, there still may be an upset from Ruth Negga in “Passing,” which was snubbed by the Oscars.
Check out the final predictions down below.
Film Independent Spirit Awards
Best Feature
“A Chiara”
“C’mon C’mon”
“The Lost Daughter”
“The Novice”
“Zola”
Will Win: “The Lost Daughter”
Could Win: “Zola”
Should Win: “C’mon C’mon”
Best Director
Janicza Bravo, “Zola”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”
Lauren Hadaway, “The Novice”
Mike Mills, “C’mon C’mon”
Ninja Thyberg, “Pleasure”
Will Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal
Could Win: Janicza Bravo
Should Win: Mike Mills
Best Male Lead
Clifton Collins Jr., “Jockey”
Frankie Faison, “Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain”
Michael Greyeyes, “Wild Indian”
Udo Kier, “Swan Song”
Simon Rex, “Red Rocket”
Will Win: Simon Rex
Could Win: Clifton Collins Jr.
Should Win: Simon Rex
Best Female Lead
Isabelle Fuhrman, “The Novice”
Brittany S. Hall, “Test Pattern”
Patti Harrison, “Together Together”
Taylour Paige, “Zola”
Kali Reis, “Catch the Fair One”
Will Win: Taylour Paige
Could Win: Isabelle Fuhrman
Should Win: Patti Harrison
Best Supporting Female
Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
Amy Forsyth, “The Novice”
Ruth Negga, “Passing”
Revika Reustle, “Pleasure”
Suzanna Son, “Red Rocket”
Will Win: Ruth Negga
Could Win: Jessie Buckley
Should Win: Ruth Negga
Best Supporting Male
Colman Domingo, “Zola”
Meeko Gattuso, “Queen of Glory”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Will Patton, “Sweet Thing”
Chaske Spencer, “Wild Indian”
Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Could Win: Colman Domingo
Should Win: Troy Kotsur
Best Screenplay
Nikole Beckwith, “Together Together”
Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris, “Zola”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”
Mike Mills, “C’mon C’mon”
Todd Stephens, “Swan Song”
Will Win: “The Lost Daughter”
Could Win: “C’mon C’mon”
Should Win: “C’mon C’mon”
Best First Screenplay
Lyle Mitchell Corbine, Jr., “Wild Indian ”
Matt Fifer; Story by Sheldon D. Brown, “Cicada”
Shatara Michelle Ford, “Test Pattern ”
Fran Kranz, “Mass”
Michael Sarnoski; Story by Vanessa Block, Michael Sarnoski, “Pig”
Will Win: “Pig”
Could Win: “Mass”
Should Win: “Mass”
Best First Feature
“7 Days”
“Holler”
“Queen of Glory”
“Test Pattern”
“Wild Indian”
Will Win: “Test Pattern”
Could Win: “Holler”
Should Win: “Test Pattern”
John Cassavetes Award (Given to the best feature made for under $500,000)
“Cryptozoo”
“Jockey”
“Shiva Baby”
“Sweet Thing”
“This Is Not a War Story”
Will Win: “Shiva Baby”
Could Win: “Jockey”
Should Win: “Shiva Baby”
Best Cinematography
“A Chiara”
“Blue Bayou”
“The Humans”
“Passing”
“Zola”
Will Win: “Passing”
Could Win: “Zola”
Should Win: “Passing”
Best Documentary
“Ascension”
“Flee”
“In The Same Breath”
“Procession”
“Summer of Soul”
Will Win: “Summer of Soul”
Could Win: “Flee”
Should Win: “Flee”
Best Editing
“A Chiara”
“The Nowhere Inn”
“The Novice”
“Zola”
“The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain”
Will Win: “Zola”
Could Win: “The Novice”
Should Win: “A Chiara”
Best International Film
“Compartment No. 6”
“Drive My Car”
“Parallel Mothers”
“Pebbles”
“Petite Maman”
“Prayers for the Stolen”
Will Win: “Drive My Car”
Could Win: “Parallel Mothers”
Should Win: “Petite Maman”
Someone to Watch Award
Alex Camilleri, “Luzzu”
Michael Sarnoski, “Pig”
Gillian Wallace Horvat, “I Blame Society”
Will Win: Michael Sarnoski
“The Truer Than Fiction Award” (Presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition)
Angelo Madsen Minax, “North by Current”
Jessica Beshir, “Faya Dayi”
Debbie Lum, “Try Harder!”
Will Win: Jessica Beshir
Television Categories
Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series
“Black and Missing”
“The Choe Show”
“The Lady and The Dale”
“Nuclear Family”
“Philly D.A.”
Will Win: “Philly D.A.”
Could Win: “Nuclear Family
Best New Scripted Series
“Blindspotting”
“It’s a Sin”
“Reservation Dogs”
“The Underground Railroad”
“We Are Lady Parts”
Will Win: “The Underground Railroad”
Could Win: “Blindspotting
Best Female Performance in a New Scripted Series
Thuso Mbedu, “The Underground Railroad”
Anjana Vasan, “We Are Lady Parts”
Jana Schmieding, “Rutherford Falls”
Jasmine Cephas Jones, “Blindspotting”
Deborah Ayorinde, “THEM: Covenant”
Will Win: Thusa Mbedu
Could Win: Jasmine Cephas Jone
Best Male Performance in a New Scripted Series
Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
Olly Alexander, “It’s a Sin”
Michael Greyeyes, “Rutherford Falls”
Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
Ashley Thomas, “THEM: Covenant”
Will Win: Lee Jung-jae
Could Win: Olly Alexander
Special Honors
Robert Altman Award (Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast)
“Mass”
Best Ensemble Cast in a New Scripted Series
“Reservation Dogs”
The American Cinema Editors (ACE Eddies)
Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
“Belfast” (Focus Features) – Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, ACE, BFE
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Joe Walker, ACE
“King Richard” (Warner Bros) – Pamela Martin, ACE
“No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Tom Cross, ACE, Elliot Graham, ACE
“The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) – Peter Sciberras
Will Win: “King Richard”
Could Win: “Dune”
Should Win: “King Richard”
Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy)
“Cruella” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Tatiana S. Riegel ACE
“Don’t Look Up” (Netflix) – Hank Corwin, ACE
“The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun” (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Weisblum, ACE
“Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Andy Jurgensen
“Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix) – Myron Kerstein, ACE, Andrew Weisblum, ACE
Will Win: “Tick, Tick … Boom!”
Could Win: “Licorice Pizza”
Should Win: “Tick, Tick … Boom!”
Best Edited Animated Feature Film
“Encanto” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Jeremy Milton, ACE
“Luca” (Pixar) – Catherine Apple, ACE, Jason Hudak
“The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (Netflix) – Greg Levitan
“Raya and the Last Dragon” (Walt Disney Pictures) – Fabienne Rawley, ACE, Shannon Stein
“Sing 2” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) – Gregory Perler, ACE
Will Win: “Encanto”
Could Win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
Should Win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
Best Edited Documentary (Feature)
“Flee” (Neon) – Janus Billeskov Jansen
“The Rescue” (National Geographic) – Bob Eisenhardt, ACE
“Summer of Soul……Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures) – Joshua L. Pearson
“Val” (Amazon Studios) – Ting Poo, Leo Scott
“The Velvet Underground” (Apple Original Films) – Affonso Gonçalves, ACE, Adam Kurnitz
Will Win: “Summer of Soul”
Could Win: “Flee”
Should Win: “Val”
Best Edited Documentary (Non-Theatrical)
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO) – Abhay Sofsky, Adrienne Gits, Connor Culhane, Brandon Valentin (Episode: “Sea Monsters”)
“1971: The Year That Music Changed Everything” (Apple TV Plus) – Sam Blair (Episode: “Starman”)
“Allen v. Farrow” (HBO) – Mikaela Shwer, Parker Laramie, Sara Newens (“Episode One”)
“The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney Plus) – Jabez Olssen (Episode: “Part 3: Days 17-22”)
“Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry” (Apple TV Plus) – Greg Finton, ACE, Lindsay Utz, ACE (entire feature)
Will Win: “The Beatles: Get Back”
Could Win: “Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Art Directors Guild of America Awards
PERIOD FEATURE FILM
“The French Dispatch” (Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen)
“Licorice Pizza” (Production Designer: Florencia Martin)
“Nightmare Alley” (Production Designer: Tamara Deverell)
“The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Production Designer: Stefan Dechant)
“West Side Story” (Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen)
Will Win: “Nightmare Alley”
Could Win: “Licorice Pizza”
Should Win: “Nightmare Alley”
FANTASY FEATURE FILM
“Cruella” (Production Designer: Fiona Crombie)
“Dune” (Production Designer: Patrice Vermette)
“Ghostbusters: Afterlife” (Production Designer: François Audouy)
“The Green Knight” (Production Designer: Jade Healy)
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (Production Designer: Sue Chan)
Will Win: “Dune”
Could Win: “The Green Knight”
Should Win: “Dune”
CONTEMPORARY FEATURE FILM
“Candyman” (Production Designer: Cara Brower)
“Don’t Look Up” (Production Designer: Clayton Hartley)
“In the Heights” (Production Designer: Nelson Coates)
“The Lost Daughter” (Production Designer: Inbal Weinberg)
“No Time to Die” (Production Designer: Mark Tildesley)
Will Win: “Don’t Look Up”
Could Win: “The Lost Daughter”
Should Win: “In the Heights”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Encanto” (Production Designers: Ian Gooding, Lorelay Bové)
“Luca” (Production Designer: Daniela Strijleva)
“The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (Production Designer: Lindsey Olivares)
“Raya and the Last Dragon” (Production Designers: Paul Felix, Mingjue Helen Chen, Cory Loftis)
“Sing 2” (Art Director: Olivier Adam)
Will Win: “Encanto”
Could Win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
Should Win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
NOMINEES FOR TELEVISION :
ONE-HOUR PERIOD OR FANTASY SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES
“Foundation: The Emperor’s Peace” (Production Designer: Rory Cheyne)
“The Great: Dickhead,” “Seven Days,” “Wedding” (Production Designer: Francesca di Mottola)
“Loki: Glorious Purpose” (Production Designer: Kasra Farahani)
“Lost In Space: Three Little Birds” (Production Designer: Alec Hammond)
“The Witcher: A Grain of Truth” (Production Designer: Andrew Laws)
Will Win: “The Great”
Could Win: “Loki”
Should Win: “Foundation”
ONE-HOUR CONTEMPORARY SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES
“The Handmaid’s Tale: Chicago” (Production Designer: Elisabeth Williams)
“The Morning Show: My Least Favorite Year,” “It’s Like the Flu,” “A Private Person” (Production Designer: Nelson Coates)
“Squid Game: Gganbu” (Production Designer: Chae Kyoung-sun_
“Succession: “The Disruption,” “Too Much Birthday” (Production Designer: Stephen Carter)
“Yellowstone: No Kindness for the Coward” (Production Designer: Cary White)
Will Win: “Squid Game”
Could Win: “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Should Win: “Squid Game”
TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES
“Halston” (Production Designer: Mark Ricker)
“Mare of Easttown” (Production Designer: Keith P. Cunningham)
“The Underground Railroad” (Production Designer: Mark Friedberg)
“WandaVision” (Production Designer: Mark Worthington)
“The White Lotus” (Production Designer: Laura Fox)
Will Win: “The Underground Railroad”
Could Win: “WandaVision”
Should Win: “WandaVision”
HALF HOUR SINGLE-CAMERA SERIES
“Hacks: Primm” (Production Designer: Jon Carlos)
“Only Murders in the Building: True Crime” (Production Designer: Curt Beech)
“Schmigadoon!: Schmigadoon!” (Production Designer: Bo Welch)
“Ted Lasso: “Carol of the Bells,” “Man City,” “Beard After Hours” (Production Designer: Paul Cripps)
“What We Do in the Shadows: “The Prisoner,” “The Cloak of Duplication,” “The Siren” (Production Designer: Kate Bunch)
Will Win: “What We Do in the Shadows”
Could Win: “Hacks”
Should Win: “Schmigadoon!”
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