‘Indiana Jones 5’ Won’t Reverse Disney’s Recent Box Office Woes
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June has been a rough month at the box office for Disney, and Lucasfilm’s “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” is more likely to continue that trend rather than reverse it.
Current box office projections have Harrison Ford’s final turn as the legendary archeologist making $65 million in its opening weekend, well below the $100 million 3-day opening of “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” on Memorial Day weekend in 2008 and well short of the opening weekend needed for a film with a reported production budget of around $295 million.
The summer started well for Disney with Marvel Studios’ “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” which passed $350 million in North America this past weekend and has given the MCU another hit with $831 million worldwide, currently standing as the second-highest grossing film of the year behind only “The Super Mario Bros. Movie.”
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But since then, the remake of “The Little Mermaid” has been a domestic success with $270 million but an overseas bust compared to past Disney remakes, just getting past $500 million worldwide after a month in theaters and still straining to reach the break-even point theatrically against its reported $250 million budget before marketing costs.
Then came Pixar’s “Elemental,” which suffered that animation studio’s worst opening weekend ever and has a global 10-day total of $121 million against a reported $200 million production budget. While audience reception is very strong and there are signs that word of mouth may give the film legs, it would take endurance of historical proportions for “Elemental” to make the comeback to profitability.
Which brings us to “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” which has seen a massive marketing and press campaign since its world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival last month, where Harrison Ford received an honorary Palme D’Or. While Ford’s final performance as Indy has been well met by critics, “Dial of Destiny” as a whole has had a more mixed reaction, starting with a lukewarm 50% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from Cannes critics before improving to 65% at time of writing.
Back in 2008, “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” was met with a lot of internet rage that persists to this day, but it’s worth remembering that the film was still generally liked when released, earning a 77% Rotten Tomatoes score from critics and a B+ from audiences on CinemaScore. The film went on to gross $317 million domestic and $790 million worldwide against a reported production budget of $185 million, or about $260 million after inflation adjustment.
“Dial of Destiny” has an even higher budget than that, but the audience interest has diminished from from 15 years ago. Several box office sources tell TheWrap that moviegoers under the age of 30, many of whom weren’t even in middle school when the last “Indiana Jones” film was in theaters, have had a much lower presence in ticket presales compared to the average summer tentpole.
Unlike “Star Wars,” which went 10 years between “Revenge of the Sith” and Disney’s revival with “The Force Awakens” and was sustained in the intervening years by shows like “Clone Wars,” the “Indiana Jones” series has remained dormant since “Crystal Skull” came out with nothing to introduce younger audiences to the character.
Like the disinterested students in Indy’s archeology class in “Dial of Destiny,” unimpressed by his passionate recounting of the life and death of the famous Greek mathematician Archimedes, the idea of seeing Indiana Jones on the big screen isn’t a particularly exciting one to most of Gen Z, and it has been older moviegoers who have memories of seeing “Indiana Jones” in the 80s that are driving presales and audience interest.
It is likely that the film’s performance, at least in the U.S., will be similar to the James Bond film “No Time to Die,” which opened during the COVID recovery period in October 2021 to $55 million and was driven by an audience that had a larger share of moviegoers over the age of 45 compared to other 2021 films like “F9” and “Venom: There Will Be Carnage.” Like “Dial of Destiny,” “No Time to Die” had that farewell appeal for older audiences who had enjoyed Bond for years and had bought tickets to see Daniel Craig’s final turn in the role.
“No Time to Die” went on to gross $160 million in the U.S., below the two previous Bond films but decently enough when graded on a pandemic curve. It also got a boost from overseas audiences — particularly European ones — and grossed $774 million worldwide.
Sources tell TheWrap that “Indiana Jones” isn’t showing signs of similar performance overseas, particularly underperforming in Asian markets like South Korea. European turnout should be stronger but is unlikely to be as strong as “No Time to Die” as Bond films are considered top event films on that continent, particularly in the UK.
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The one hope for “Dial of Destiny” is that older moviegoers sell more walk-up tickets than expected and embrace the film more than critics, giving it an A or A- on CinemaScore and establishing the post-release buzz that will allow for a strong hold through Fourth of July and into next weekend. If it can accomplish that, it may have a chance of holding on among moviegoers even against films like “Mission: Impossible 7,” “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.”
But again, a film of this budget level requires strong ticket sales across all demographics and global markets, lest it suffer the fate that “The Little Mermaid” and “Fast X” did earlier this summer falling short against their COVID-inflated price tags. Unless it can clear the generation gap, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” will have a box office run that might be good, but not good enough.
Still, that would be more than what can be said for this weekend’s other new wide release: Universal/DreamWorks’ “Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken,” which is currently tracking for an anemic $4-8 million opening weekend against a reported $70 million budget. Such a result would be among the lowest opening weekends for a DreamWorks animated film, ranking among the COVID-era $9.7 million opening for “The Croods: A New Age” in November 2020 and the $6.1 million opening for “Spirit Untamed” in June 2021.
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While much has been written, including on this site, about the crossroads Pixar is now at with the studio record-low opening of “Elemental,” the struggles “Ruby Gillman” has faced gaining audience attention show how the theatrical market is still waiting for an original animated film to find success since theaters reopened. So far, it has been sequels and IP that have dominated the animated space, including DreamWorks’ own “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” which rode its overwhelming audience acclaim to $480 million worldwide last winter against a reported $90 million budget.
Only a handful of reviews have been written for “Ruby Gillman,” skewing positive with a 77% Rotten Tomatoes score with 14 reviews logged. With “Across the Spider-Verse” still going strong and “Elemental” starting to get families’ attention, “Ruby Gillman” is set to face the same fate as “Elemental”: winning over those who do buy a ticket but never drawing in enough to break even.
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