Will Independent Spirit Awards preview Best Actress Oscar? Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett face off one more time

Cate Blanchett (“TAR”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) are locked in a close battle for the Best Actress Oscar. But they will face off one more time before the academy announces winners on March 12. They’re both nominated for the newly gender-neutral Best Lead Performance prize at the Independent Spirit Awards. So who will win that? And will it presage the Oscars’ choice?

The results for Blanchett and Yeoh have been mixed throughout the season. Both won at the Golden Globes since those awards have separate Best Actress races for dramas and musicals/comedies. But when they went head-to-head at the Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs, Blanchett won. It looked like Yeoh was on shaky ground, but then she secured a crucial win over Blanchett at the SAG Awards, demonstrating strong support from her industry peers. From here it’s hard to tell which way the Oscars will go.

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The Spirit Awards — which take place on Saturday, March 4 — are open to any film enthusiast willing and able to pay the organization’s annual dues, so their membership doesn’t have much in common with the motion picture academy. Nevertheless, these awards could give us a hint of which way the wind is blowing. When the late Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) lost at the Spirit Awards two years ago, for instance, it portended his eventual upset loss at the Oscars too. The Spirits also foretold “Birdman’s” victory over “Boyhood” at the 2015 Oscars ceremony, and hinted at the Best Picture upsets for “Spotlight” and “Moonlight” over the next two years.

As of this writing Yeoh has the advantage in our Spirit Awards predictions with 6/1 odds. She’s backed by seven out of 10 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed thus far from major media outlets. Blanchett trails with 13/2 odds and support from just two Experts. Our last Expert is going out on a limb for surprise Oscar nominee Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”). Do you agree with the consensus?

PREDICTthe Independent Spirit Awards now

Be sure to make your Indie Spirit predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. And join in the fierce debate over the Spirit Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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