Can Tom Cruise and 'Top Gun: Maverick' take the best picture Oscar? Why this weekend is 'do-or-die'

Bryan Alexander, USA TODAY
·3 min read
969
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

"Top Gun: Maverick" and Tom Cruise are aiming to hit Mach 10 in the Oscar best picture race this weekend.

The critically acclaimed "Top Gun" sequel earned an Oscar nomination last month after collecting nearly $1.5 billion in worldwide box office. But producer and star Cruise, receiving his first nomination since 2000 (for best supporting actor in "Magnolia"), isn't pulling off the accelerator.

Last week, Cruise turned the Oscars nominees luncheon into a schmoozing showcase. Saturday's Producers Guild Awards, where Cruise will speak and "Top Gun: Maverick" is up for the equivalent of best picture, will be a crucial test to see if "Maverick" can fly into serious contention to actually win the Oscar.

" 'Top Gun: Maverick' is enjoying a burst of momentum right now. The question is, will it be enough?" says movie historian Dave Karger, an awards correspondent for Entertainment Weekly. "This weekend, and specifically the Producers Guild Awards, is a do-or-die moment for its best picture chances."

Could 'Top Gun: Maverick' win best picture?

Tom Cruise reprises his role as Capt. Pete "Maverick" Mitchell in "Top Gun: Maverick."
Tom Cruise reprises his role as Capt. Pete "Maverick" Mitchell in "Top Gun: Maverick."

In January, movie lovers fist-pumped joyously as "Top Gun: Maverick" earned a best picture nod, along with five other nominations, including Lady Gaga's "Hold My Hand" for best original song.

But "Maverick" missed out in key categories that would have bolstered its best picture chances: Cruise wasn't nominated for best actor, Claudio Miranda was overlooked for best cinematography and Joseph Kosinski was snubbed for best director.

Without a PGAs jolt, Karger sees "Maverick" chances as "slim" in a best picture race which has seen multiverse-hopping "Everything, Everywhere All At Once," and its leading 11 nominations, emerge as the front-runner.

Tom Cruise turned on the jets at the Oscar nominees luncheon

Tom Cruise at the Oscar nominees lunch with Austin Butler (clockwise from left), Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan.
Tom Cruise at the Oscar nominees lunch with Austin Butler (clockwise from left), Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan.

Cruise showed his clout and how to campaign without trying at the Feb. 13 Oscar luncheon. Tom Terrific was the guy everyone from Austin Butler (who called the encounter "surreal") to Michelle Yeoh had to meet. "The Fabelmans" director Steven Spielberg was even captured on video lauding Cruise, telling him, "You saved Hollywood’s (posterior) and you might have saved theatrical distribution."

That was major respect, an exchange that reinforced Cruise's industry appeal.

Next up: the Producers Guild Awards, where Tom Cruise is already a winner

Not coincidentally, Cruise will receive the David O. Selznick Achievement Award this weekend from the Producers Guild, a sign of love from a pivotal Oscar voting bloc already receptive to box office success.

"Top Gun" producer Jerry Bruckheimer, who earned his first Oscar nomination with "Maverick," will help the push.

"Bruckheimer is very popular in the industry, which will help with the producers and with the Oscars," says Chris Beachum, managing editor of awards site GoldDerby.

Should "Maverick" take the top PGA prize, the Oscar best picture race turns into a dogfight.

"If producers don't embrace 'Maverick,' it doesn't really have a chance," says Beachum. "A win would also happen at the perfect time because Oscar voting starts the week after."

The PGA preferential ballot carries Oscar weight

Blockbuster hit 'Top Gun: Maverick' snagged several Oscar nods this year.
Blockbuster hit 'Top Gun: Maverick' snagged several Oscar nods this year.

Another success indicator: The PGA employs a preferential, or weighted, ballot to determine its award winner – the same ranked choice voting system used in the Oscar best picture race.

"That's why the PGA can be prescient for Oscar best picture, because those No. 2 or 3 votes can add up. And 'Maverick' is the type of movie that will earn these ranked votes," says Pete Hammond, awards columnist for Deadline. "A 'Maverick' PGA win would be significant because it's this key group of Oscar voters, using the same voting method. It will really shake things up."

More 'Top Gun' news from the danger zone:

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How Tom Cruise, 'Top Gun: Maverick' could still win Oscar best picture